Decoding McCarthy – Rushing Game Evaluation
Why the running game isn't working does not have a simple explanation or solution.
During bye week NFL players get some relaxation time and perhaps return to their college campus as a hero, who is now off in the big leagues making lots of money. They get off their feet (hopefully) and get ready to endure a stretch run that will ask plenty of their bodies.
We planned a few projects for this bye week, but I will tell you the timing hit in just a spot where we actually were blessed to be able to write plenty of playoff baseball materials and even plan a nice Mavericks essay to open the season. In other words, there has been no rest at #SturmStack.
But, one thing we have promised that I do want to make sure we deliver on is an honest evaluation of the Cowboys running game and why these last two games have been so difficult to fully comprehend.
I want to discuss each player involved as best we can and then look at some examples of where they are and where they need to be.
To best understand the issues with the Cowboys running game and how we got here, it is best that we rewind back to 2021 and 2022 where the Cowboys run game was very similar to what it is today: Often called but seldom dominating.
In a nutshell, we learned two important elements last week:
1. Dallas leans into its run game at a very high level. It called the second-most runs in the NFL last year behind only Atlanta.
2. The Cowboys were not remarkably effective or efficient in these runs. For the season, they were 21st in Success Rate. This tells us that they had some quality baked in with big moments, but lacked consistency.
It all comes back to the general premise – one that seems to pre-date the current decision makers on headset – that the Cowboys have this big, hulking offensive line and want to run the ball down your throat. They want to dominate you physically and will do it if given the chance.
The biggest issue with this, of course, is that it isn’t 2016 anymore. The offensive line is not dominating, but still have that reputation and paycheck. The stubbornness of the run game is a positive attribute as long as it isn’t hamstringing progress. You should be convicted to do what you believe in, nobody disputes that. But, you cannot be the last to know it is just not happening anymore.
Now, I promise I know that some of you are into advanced analytics, but I think it is important that we leave no Cowboys fan behind, so I want to keep our metrics here pretty basic so everyone can see what we are talking about.
With that in mind, let me tell you that the average running game in the NFL in 2023 is averaging 110 yards per game. And here below is what the Cowboys have been gaining on the ground per game since Ezekiel Elliott was drafted in 2016:
As you can see, that is impressive stuff. Even in their worst season, they are still above “average”, but we should also tell you that average is not what they are trying for. They are trying to be the best rushing team in the NFL and with Miami running for 162 per game, you can see that they aren’t close to that.
But, that is quantity part of it and does not measure quality. If we want running yards, we can keep getting them by calling more bad runs. What we want is quality. And that is best measured in Yards Per Run. Now, again, there are lots of ways to make these numbers a bit more pinpoint and on the money, but in broad terms - where the average NFL run is 4.2 yards, here is why we say this run game is broken right now:
Yikes. Miami is at 6.3 yards per carry and Dallas is down at 3.95 which is the lowest they have had in a long time. Very long. 2012 it turns out.
So, the 2023 run game is officially broken. This probably makes guys who paid for the 2022 run game being broken roll their eyes.
Didn’t we blame Offensive Coordinator Kellen Moore, Offensive Line Coach Joe Philbin, and lead RB Zeke for the run game being so pedestrian? It turns out that they were not bad?