Decoding McCarthy – Winning Third Downs
While the red zone gets the negativity going, Cowboys keep moving the chains
I get it. Negativity gets people fired up. The traffic is better after a loss because people want to rage. Good news? It is satisfying to some, but research seems to verify that if you are trying to get people worked up into a frenzy, we must tell them about the looming doom around the next corner.
That is why this red zone discussion is so overcooked.
Of course, it is a concern.
You would always want a touchdown over a field goal in every situation. But, we are at the point of the season where the samples are so tiny that all it takes is one good red zone game and a team can shoot from the bottom of the league to the middle.
You also want to be ranked first in everything. When analyzing a football team, we have access to hundreds of team stats and we can compare them to every other team. You can find out how they rank in everything. The numbers are overwhelming if you don’t know what you are looking for. So, over the years in working with Troy Aikman, we decided on the 10 that were most important to us when looking at an offense and use those same 10 for flipping it to defense.
They are: offensive points scored, yards per game, rushing yards per game, passing yards per game, 3rd down conversion percentage, red zone td conversion percentage, explosive play percentage, sacks allowed per attempt, points scored per drive, and turnover percentage.
It keeps it simple and easy to consume. A quick scan of the “big 10” will give us a wellness check on a team. You want lots of green and no red. Here is Dallas offense in 2023:
Sixteenth is middle of the league, so we quickly see that everything is above average besides the red zone. But, let’s give you the good news, they are “top 5” in four categories:
5th in sack rate as they have provided a reasonably clean pocket
5th in points per drive. Adjusting for pace, 2.46 per drive is excellent.
3rd in turnover rate. In short, Dallas is not turning the ball over.
1st in 3rd down conversions. Very good sign here.