Decoding McCarthy, Wk 18 - The 2023 Evolution
Cowboys think they are a different offense and now get opportunity to prove it
We have arrived at the finish line.
Or is it the starting line?
Either way, it is a distinctive divider in the study that must tell us that they have taken the 18-week journey of testing that the league offers for the right to participate in the four-week journey that will determine historical significance for 14 teams that remain.
Some will not survive Saturday and will be sent home on Jan. 13th. They will have technically made the playoffs, but only barely.
This Cowboys franchise cannot bear to exit the playoffs that way. It would easily destroy any progress that we thought they might have made in 2023. But before we reckon with the ramifications of what lies ahead, let’s briefly view the year-over-year progress for this offense.
We have talked enough about why the changes were made to this offense that necessitated the changes at the top of the offense. Kellen Moore would exit and Mike McCarthy would slide over to his specialty. Then, he would seem to hand a large part of the offense’s direction, architecture, and decisions over to his veteran QB. This empowerment of Dak Prescott would finally deputize him in a way where he takes true ownership and — if done correctly — could prove to be what has been missing the last few Januarys around here: an ability to diagnose in real time and get to the solutions to problems presented when the opportunities present themselves.
I believe we have seen that happen as Prescott has played his best football of his career. I believe that Sunday was yet another example of Prescott showing real growth and the ability to play excellent games at a higher rate than ever before. Thus, the offense joins him.
Here are the 10 big metrics we keep on the offense (you will see 11, but the first two are different ways to show the same thing – offensive points and offensive points per game). Here are the final numbers for 2022:
Good stuff, but passing yards and explosive plays are too low. Turnovers are too high.
Here is 2023:
Passing yards much higher, explosive plays higher, turnovers much lower. Rushing yards are also lower, red zone efficiency was the biggest drop off.
Now, 2023 since the Week 5 debacle that inspired change:
This is the one that confirms the evolution has been positive. If you compare the first and the third, I believe this is the one to believe in as it consists of the final 12 games of 2023 and shows the growth.
Team scoring up from 26.4 to 29.4 - (up 11%)
Team yardage up from 355 per game to 390 - (up 10%)
Passing yards per game up from 220 to 282 - (up 28%)
Third downs up from 45.5% to 47.8%
Explosive plays up from 10.7% (19th in NFL) to 11.9% (6th)
Points per drive up from 2.3 to 2.99 - (up 30%)
Turnovers way down from 10.8% to 8.5% - (down 27%)
The stats that are down are rushing yards, red zone efficiency, and sacks per play. Only Red Zone performance is not part of an elective decision and that has dropped, but still well above league average and sixth in the league.
In other words, the year over year progress is obvious. They have been able to say they are a significantly better offense heading into the playoffs. And that is something that many thought would not happen. Remember those who were sure that letting Kellen go would be a major mistake and that it would surely result in Justin Herbert having a career season in Los Angeles.
That has been proven to be a silly discussion.
But, now, a far more serious discussion. Does any of this growth move the needle in the playoffs? Because that was what this was all about. The most basic demonstrating of growth is to bust through the divisional round glass ceiling on the strength in part of the offensive production. Because the last several playoff exits (2018, 2021, and 2022) all seemed to be because the offense betrayed them.
That cannot happen again.