Eberflus Report Wk 13- Third-Down Defense Fixed?
The money down has been brutal in '25 – but since the bye week, Dallas looks much better.
Wednesday is the day for us to evaluate the defense in this space. We now call it the “Eberflus Report.” Here we want to isolate the defense and try to look at the game purely from their perspective. What did they try to do against the threats from the opponent and how successful were they in carrying that out? We will also check in the tactical and strategic plot-lines of the game and get a feel for how well it worked out for that side of the ball. For those of you new here speak up if you don’t understand a concept and we will explain.
Our objectives today will be:
Overall Defensive Evaluation
Major third-down defensive progress
Surviving A Mahomes Masterpiece
Film Study
Splash Plays and Snap Counts
OVERALL DEFENSIVE EVALUATION
The Cowboys have been historically awful this year at a critical defensive stat – 3rd Down Defense. So much of the NFL is decided by converting third downs when you have the ball and stopping third downs when you don’t. You have to extend drives and you have to get off the field.
It is the money down. It is where teams spend all of their money and time trying to figure out. It is critical to winning and losing and every season the teams who are getting the best QB play are the teams with the best 3rd down offenses. This, of course, is why they get paid what they do. You would spend a lot of money to have a cheat code on third down.
This also explains why we pay pass rushers more than run stoppers. We also pay Receivers more than RBs. And Corners more than linebackers. We need difference makers on third down and the entire sport is fueled on this moment that will show up between 10-15 times per game, per team. The good teams can do it and the bad teams cannot.
Even now, with more fourth downs than ever, we still know that third down is where the games are won and lost. Fourth downs only show up, maybe, three times a game.
This is why things have felt so hopeless in the Cowboys defensive room. This third-down defense has been ranked dead last in the NFL for weeks. Also, the 2025 defense has been ranked dead last in Cowboys history (numbers go back to 1990) and will have to go on quite a run to get out of last place. The 2020 Cowboys defense (Mike Nolan) was the previous “worst in franchise history” at 46.9% allowed - 98 of 209.
This Cowboys defense was much, much worse at the bye week at 52.6% allowed - 61 of 116. Not only were they dead last, but they had quite a lead on everyone else.