Football Changes, but some things never do
If there is one thing that every coach agrees on, it is to take care of the ball at all costs.
I have not read the autobiography of Mark Twain, but I have always loved his quote that is apparently in there, somewhere:
"Figures often beguile me," Twain wrote, "particularly when I have the arranging of them myself; in which case the remark attributed to Disraeli would often apply with justice and force: 'There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”
Twain is given credit for that last phrase, but in his own autobiography, he tells us he thinks it is British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli from whom he is borrowing it.
Who can say? But the general point, made by countless folks who were diving into the data long before I was, is that it describes how statistics can be used to support weak arguments or deceive people.
For instance, if I had a dollar for everyone who now thinks the Cowboys' offense would be fixed if they just used more motion, I would be rich. But not just any motion, the latest trend tells us, but “at snap” motion. That is the key. Now, before you riot, I don’t want you to think I don’t believe motion is helpful. It is. Play-action is, too. Diverse personnel groupings are also very important. So is passing in running situations and running in passing situations.
But, yeah, better personnel would help, too. You see, the offensive coordinator at Oklahoma just got fired because apparently, he wasn’t calling the touchdown play often enough with young QBs who are definitely not ready…as the actual best Sooners QB is running the offense for the new No. 1 team in America. Meanwhile, Detroit’s Ben Johnson is a better coordinator than everyone else, but he also has better players. He will be paid a king’s ransom to be a head coach, and he won’t be bringing his players with him.
Therein lies the question: is it the motion? Is it the scheme? Or is it the talent?
But one thing we do know is that turnovers always matter. Always. This sport is ever-changing and always evolving. Some stats are no longer as relevant as they once were. There was a time when people thought getting Emmitt Smith 20 carries was the key to winning – until they found out it was merely a byproduct of winning. Causation and correlation got us awfully confused about what makes us win versus what we get to do when we win.
Turnovers mean everything. Take care of the football and protect it with your life. Why? Because the outcome of the game is determined by turnovers far more than most football fans realize.
When I am asked about studying this game and what is more important than almost anything when analyzing what is happening, it almost always starts with this. Other things like field position, running the ball, big plays, time of possession, passing efficiency, blocking, and tackling – they all take turns depending on who you ask and what decade you are living in. There are trends, for sure, that are important and exciting, making this game feel like it is nothing like it once was.
But this one? This one stands the test of time. How do I know? Because I have tracked it forever.