I agree with you. I don’t really understand why 10+ yard runs are included in some variations of the metric, other than they are hard to do and about as rare as a 25 yard completion. But there’s no way a 10 yard run actually contributes as much as a 25 yard reception.
I think you have to start with EPA. Scott Barrett says an interception is worth about -4.42 EPA, so I’d think you want to find offensive gains that are worth about the same. As a starting point, a 30 yard gain on almost any drive increases your likelihood of 3-7 points on that drive, so that’s probably a decent place to look at and refine.
Bob: Another great column. I particularly liked your answer about scheduling your time. My late wife & I led weekly & weekend "Marriage Enrichment" groups for 45+ years. We had learned & tried to get across the most important element in significant relationships is intentionality. Except in the beginning (fueled by lust), lasting relationships take work & determination. "Date nites" & special times & "getaways" without the kids are the glue that holds us together through the many twists & turns of life. I congratulate you & your lady for your good work & success in a difficult process.
Bob, I think you may have hit on something as to why teams appear to have trouble stopping the run. There was a time in the NFL that an offense’s run game was it’s more important component. The early years of the Cowboys dynasty featured Dan Reeves and Don Perkins. After that Calvin Hill and Duane Thomas took the reins and were more more dangerous threats than their predecessors.
After Hill moved to the WFL and Thomas was discarded because of attitude issues, the Cowboy ground game slowed because of relying on some good, but not great backs. Walt Garrison, Robert Newhouse and Preston Pearson we’re all solid contributors but we’re limited, forcing the Cowboys to rely strictly on the pass for splash plays. That led to a draft trade-up to get the rights to Tony Dorsett, followed by the most valuable runner in their history, Hershel Walker. Walker was an exciting, straight ahead power and speed runner, but his true value came when he was traded to Minnesota for a shit-load of draft picks that Jimmy Johnson parlayed into the foundation of the 90s Super Bowl runs. Those picks included Emmitt rounding out the Triplets and becoming the leagues all-time leading rusher.
The Cowboys of the early days made their ground game more effective with an innovative passing game that was usually ahead of it’s time. Don Meredith had Bob Hayes and Lance Rentzel, then Lance Alworth as targets, then Staubach utilized Drew Pearson, Tony Hill, Butch Johnson and Golden Richards for the team’s first golden age. Most teams of this era had star receivers, but the passing game was still the place that many coaches believed that two things could go wrong.
The truth of this time was that teams with good defenses like the original Doomsday as well as Doomsday II could stop the run.
So why do today’s team have such trouble against it? The answer is obvious, but since the advent of rule changes that favor the wide open passing league we see now, defenses were built to combat the pass. Defensive fronts, including both linemen and linebackers, got smaller and faster, making them more susceptible to the run game and the big road graders that offenses employed on their lines.
Jason Garrett was in someways ahead of the curve, insisting on establishing a running attack. Whether he saw this as a course correction to counter modern pass defenses or as simply a desire to return to the success of the Cowboys of his playing days in the 90s, only he knows for sure. Unfortunately, having Rod Marinelli as a DC who believed in smaller quicker linemen made Dallas more susceptible to other offenses who tried to run.
The Cowboys under McCarthy and Quinn have finally turned the tide by trying to stock the big space-eaters in the middle of the line, a formula that successful teams of the 1960s through 1990s used routinely. The dearth of these big boys seems to be the largest impediment to making this strategy work. Hopefully, Mazi Smith will evolve into the solution. Time will tell.
Definitely looked like the Eagles have the ability to run it as much as they want, they will absolutely try that against Dallas. But you also saw that game plan rubbed their WR1 the wrong way....looking forward to reading your thoughts on this subject!
When even Bucky Brooks acknowledges that defenses are preferring offenses to run rather than pass because of the potential for a holding penalty or turnover, you know you are onto something.
This is an interesting take on the run vs. pass. It definitely works when you are holding a lead but not so much if you happen to be playing from behind. As has been pointed out, the Cowboys are built to play with the lead.
I admire your commitment to in-depth and evidence based coverage on the Cowboys! After reading about your time constraints for the season, I gotta say I am willing to help log data just to help with the timelines so we can all enjoy the most of SturmStaxk every week, year round!
If the D accomplishes something not seen since the Steel Curtain and this team isn’t champions at the end of the year, it’ll be the biggest shame in NFL history.
Very rarely do I root for the G-Men, but boy did they bail out the eternity of football history by pulling the upset and preventing modern-era perfection. For a day back in 2007, many a football fan (not just Cowboys fans) were #Team Manning.
On families. Don’t forget Bruce and Clay Matthew’s who played against each other when they were with the oilers and browns. O line and linebacker.
For sure. That is a good ol school one.
I’m not sure if this is elsewhere already but the running thing is like midrange jumpers. Analytics says to give you that all day while we bomb 3s.
Thanks for answering my question!
I agree with you. I don’t really understand why 10+ yard runs are included in some variations of the metric, other than they are hard to do and about as rare as a 25 yard completion. But there’s no way a 10 yard run actually contributes as much as a 25 yard reception.
I think you have to start with EPA. Scott Barrett says an interception is worth about -4.42 EPA, so I’d think you want to find offensive gains that are worth about the same. As a starting point, a 30 yard gain on almost any drive increases your likelihood of 3-7 points on that drive, so that’s probably a decent place to look at and refine.
This is where I like 20 yards. It's on the low side for EPA but almost always guarantees that you'll continue the drive with fresh downs.
Bob: Another great column. I particularly liked your answer about scheduling your time. My late wife & I led weekly & weekend "Marriage Enrichment" groups for 45+ years. We had learned & tried to get across the most important element in significant relationships is intentionality. Except in the beginning (fueled by lust), lasting relationships take work & determination. "Date nites" & special times & "getaways" without the kids are the glue that holds us together through the many twists & turns of life. I congratulate you & your lady for your good work & success in a difficult process.
Bob, I think you may have hit on something as to why teams appear to have trouble stopping the run. There was a time in the NFL that an offense’s run game was it’s more important component. The early years of the Cowboys dynasty featured Dan Reeves and Don Perkins. After that Calvin Hill and Duane Thomas took the reins and were more more dangerous threats than their predecessors.
After Hill moved to the WFL and Thomas was discarded because of attitude issues, the Cowboy ground game slowed because of relying on some good, but not great backs. Walt Garrison, Robert Newhouse and Preston Pearson we’re all solid contributors but we’re limited, forcing the Cowboys to rely strictly on the pass for splash plays. That led to a draft trade-up to get the rights to Tony Dorsett, followed by the most valuable runner in their history, Hershel Walker. Walker was an exciting, straight ahead power and speed runner, but his true value came when he was traded to Minnesota for a shit-load of draft picks that Jimmy Johnson parlayed into the foundation of the 90s Super Bowl runs. Those picks included Emmitt rounding out the Triplets and becoming the leagues all-time leading rusher.
The Cowboys of the early days made their ground game more effective with an innovative passing game that was usually ahead of it’s time. Don Meredith had Bob Hayes and Lance Rentzel, then Lance Alworth as targets, then Staubach utilized Drew Pearson, Tony Hill, Butch Johnson and Golden Richards for the team’s first golden age. Most teams of this era had star receivers, but the passing game was still the place that many coaches believed that two things could go wrong.
The truth of this time was that teams with good defenses like the original Doomsday as well as Doomsday II could stop the run.
So why do today’s team have such trouble against it? The answer is obvious, but since the advent of rule changes that favor the wide open passing league we see now, defenses were built to combat the pass. Defensive fronts, including both linemen and linebackers, got smaller and faster, making them more susceptible to the run game and the big road graders that offenses employed on their lines.
Jason Garrett was in someways ahead of the curve, insisting on establishing a running attack. Whether he saw this as a course correction to counter modern pass defenses or as simply a desire to return to the success of the Cowboys of his playing days in the 90s, only he knows for sure. Unfortunately, having Rod Marinelli as a DC who believed in smaller quicker linemen made Dallas more susceptible to other offenses who tried to run.
The Cowboys under McCarthy and Quinn have finally turned the tide by trying to stock the big space-eaters in the middle of the line, a formula that successful teams of the 1960s through 1990s used routinely. The dearth of these big boys seems to be the largest impediment to making this strategy work. Hopefully, Mazi Smith will evolve into the solution. Time will tell.
Definitely looked like the Eagles have the ability to run it as much as they want, they will absolutely try that against Dallas. But you also saw that game plan rubbed their WR1 the wrong way....looking forward to reading your thoughts on this subject!
I would point out 4 Viking turnovers helped fuel that game plan. Harder to be patient for coaches in close games/playing from behind
Re: Defending the run
When even Bucky Brooks acknowledges that defenses are preferring offenses to run rather than pass because of the potential for a holding penalty or turnover, you know you are onto something.
This is an interesting take on the run vs. pass. It definitely works when you are holding a lead but not so much if you happen to be playing from behind. As has been pointed out, the Cowboys are built to play with the lead.
I admire your commitment to in-depth and evidence based coverage on the Cowboys! After reading about your time constraints for the season, I gotta say I am willing to help log data just to help with the timelines so we can all enjoy the most of SturmStaxk every week, year round!
Hey Bob, I like your splash plays very much. What about tracking splash plays by the offense?
If you contextualized the offensive plays by down, distance, score, and time remaining, the result would help us understand the game better.
If the D accomplishes something not seen since the Steel Curtain and this team isn’t champions at the end of the year, it’ll be the biggest shame in NFL history.
2007 Patriots: “Hold my beer...”
Very rarely do I root for the G-Men, but boy did they bail out the eternity of football history by pulling the upset and preventing modern-era perfection. For a day back in 2007, many a football fan (not just Cowboys fans) were #Team Manning.