Friday Free Mailbag - Jimbo, Cowboys new defensive wrinkle, and Horns in Ames

Lots of meaty football topics to prepare us for the big football weekend ahead

Good Friday, friends. It is time to put a few hours of thoughts on paper here for all to enjoy! I love to answer your questions and we will get to many of them. I also wish I had enough time to write more frequently, but I would like to promise that time is coming soon.

In 2024, I will have only two jobs left – hopefully forever –#SturmStack and my radio gig at The Ticket. Nothing is forever, but I am done taking other gigs because this is too enjoyable.

So, as long as you support me and this venture, I promise I am done taking other gigs. I thank those of you that have already been on board – many of you since Day 1. Which, of course, leads me to those who are with us courtesy of today’s Free Friday feature. We would very much love to have you join the team to keep this thing rolling and expanding starting when we get to 2024. I have big plans, but obviously, only if there is a market for it. My days with #TeamAikman are winding down and have about two months to go. And then, it is just us with so many sports problems to solve.

One other thing, I would like to offer a Christmas gift option for that DFW sports fan in your life. More details on that to follow, but I have some cool ideas to help you Christmas shop without leaving this space. I’m here for you!

Alright, enough about that. Let’s get going with some good mailbagging.

THE JIMBO FISHER STORY

I really wanted to give you my take on this story this week, but Monday Night Football and the Cowboys stories that are mandatory for this space have had me working day and night.

But, you know this is important stuff for me, so I want to get to it here. Luckily, many of you were on it already in the mailbag.

From AJRushin:

What’s your analysis on the Jimbo Fisher move? Clearly it’s expensive but is there any light at the end of short tunnel or is there a ton of pain ahead?

My analysis is simple – it had to happen. He had lost the plot and he had lost it quite a while ago.

In 2020, he coached a very strong football team that had played very well and bullied teams as the games went along. Some would discount a COVID year record, but I am not sure why they would. The SEC played games in full stadiums with full teams. There is really no reason to discount the 2020 season, other than trying to discount A&M having a quality season. At that point, the 9-1 season seemed to indicate that the Aggies were headed in the proper direction.

Getty Images

But, 2021 happened. And 2022. And 2023.

I don’t know where to start on how the wheels came off, but they sure did. You could start with his ponderous navigation of the QB position down there. He didn’t have enough recruited, he seemed to prefer those he could get to play robotically, he preferred to run an offense that seemed to think that QBs were disposable, only to see that he had about one or two competent options in 2021. Once Haynes King was injured in September, they were down to one guy. Literally, Zach Calzada. Because when he was hurt against Alabama, they almost had to put a walk-on out there who had no business playing.

Then the offense. The offense for the last several years has been a disaster. He is an offensive coach who was leading a team filled with elite recruits and yet, in a 14 team SEC, his offense was last or near last in every category.

Here are their SEC rankings in 2021-2022 in the 10 big categories:

Dead last in red zone! No. 13 in offensive points and points per drive! No. 12 in passing yards per game and 3rd down conversions! And 11th in turnovers and total yards per game.

I’m very sorry, but in a 14-team conference that has some very poor programs like Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Auburn, and Arkansas in these last few years, you cannot be below them all as an offensive coach who once managed one of the best offenses in modern college football history at Florida State.

So, with QB mismanagement and poor performance, he was pretty much forced to bring in Bobby Petrino to run his offense in 2023 as a last gasp effort to make this thing work. The feeling was they were running a very antiquated scheme that could not keep up in today’s college football.

Well, it got better across the board, aside from Red Zone TD% in 2023:

But, many of the head coaching tactical decisions - including repeated punts from opponent’s territory – continued to be antiquated. They updated the scheme, but not the in-game decisions. He just could not make himself into a risk-taking coach who understood analytics and the advantages you get if you go for it on 4th down, pass in running situations, throw vertically, and threaten defenses. Frankly speaking, if you are not willing to trust in your players to make plays in the face of odds, you probably can’t play in modern football. Or, said another way, the game has probably passed you by because you did not update your software as any aging coach must.

Most people do focus on the contract and I get it. The buy-out is insane and should be an embarrassment for anyone involved. But the two biggest issues on that front from where I sit are as follows:

• Does the money hamstring your program moving forward or is it just an embarrassing amount of money? I think we all know the answer here as Texas A&M has one of the highest football revenues of any program in the country (I believe top 5 by recent counts) and just packed nearly 104,000 people into Kyle Field for a relatively meaningless game in what has become a relatively meaningless season. In other words, if each fan at that game would offer to pay about $100 for each of the next seven years, the $76 million is completely underwritten. And if you have ever met an Aggie, you know they would not be short of volunteers.

• Are we all familiar with the sunk cost fallacy? If not, here you go: “the phenomenon whereby a person is reluctant to abandon a strategy or course of action because they have invested heavily in it, even when it is clear that abandonment would be more beneficial.” Need I say more?

So, that brings us to the question of who should be next? Before we go too far, let’s here from Austin here.

From Austin Wilhelm:

I keep hearing the "Aggies have all the resources, recruiting, facilities, etc., why shouldn't they be competing for a national championship?" I agree in a sense but I think that's also where the Aggies are messing up. In the last 10 years, I believe the Aggies have only been to one NY6 bowl. They need to crawl before they walk. They go to bowl games, which is good, but I don't think they should just expect to go from Belk bowls to the natty. Continue to go to bowl games, get to NY6 bowl games, get to the playoff. 

This is everywhere when discussing the Aggies and the question of how high should aspirations be and how good of a job is this vacancy?

Well, past performance is not indicative of future results is something we talk about all the time when discussing the Dallas Cowboys. We say, it doesn’t matter if you have won five Super Bowls, played in eight Super Bowls, played in sixteen NFC Championship games, and played in 35 playoff years. What are you going to do moving forward?

How about Notre Dame? Did you know the Irish have won 11 national championships? Did you know the last school to three-peat national titles is Minnesota? How much do you think that matters?

I guess my general point is this: I am amazed at how many people are obsessed with pointing out the few things that Texas A&M has ever won because I am not sure it is terribly relevant if we are discussing what happens next. I realize, it is fun to goof on them and count trophies to show your school’s superiority over their school. No problem there. But, as far as what they should aspire to be has nothing to do with a trophy case except for marketing and cool video montages. There are many schools that use their historical conquests to show us why they are so special. A&M certainly cannot compare trophy cases with these schools.

But, I don’t think they are trying to do that.

What I consider is the following: If you were to design a school that would create setting for success moving forward, you would want the following:

• Huge financial resources that, at times, seem infinite.

• Huge ambitions to attempt to be a football power regardless of requirements.

• Huge fanbase that can support and subsidize any efforts.

• Huge recruiting territory of the best and the brightest young football stars.

Beyond that, everything else is negotiable. But, those four things make A&M a very impressive place. You can ask how many New Year’s Bowl games they have played in that matter from 2000-2022 and I would agree the number isn’t high. But, they have proven they have the cash, they have proven they want this badly, they have proven the fanbase has no interest in leaving them, and they have proven they can recruit at a very high level.

What they haven’t proven is that they can find someone to turn all of those advantages into major wins and seasons of significance. But, so many of the top ranked schools have coaches who look at A&M and wish they had that money or ambition. Trust me, I come from Wisconsin where they lost coaches and players because the state would not allow them to pay a coach whatever and had strict academic benchmarks that caused roadblocks to winning.

But, here? Texas and Texas A&M both have this incredible commonality. Of course, Texas is located in a big city with attractive elements and a national title in 2005 to go with others from years and years ago. Texas plays a major role in this, but I fully believe that Texas A&M can play at that level. But, right now, they are a mess. A mess with fine resources and advantages over most foes, but still a mess.

Who should their next coach be? Great question. I like the Jeff Traylor idea and the Mike Elko plan is decent, too. But, if I know these guys, they have their eyes set much higher. Is it Dan Lanning? Probably not, but to all the folks that want to know why he would ever leave Oregon for this job, the answer is pretty obvious. The last three Oregon coaches left Oregon for better spots. Lanning might be the guy who never leaves, but it isn’t crazy. Heck, we just saw a coach leave Oklahoma and Notre Dame for “better opportunities”, so let’s not act like it is impossible for someone to look at the circumstances for these two major Texas programs and not want to run them.

Who else is in the mix? Well, as much as I like Traylor, I keep getting asked whether I really think a school would pay out $76m to get Jimbo out just to hire a coach like Traylor. It is a fair question. I love the Chris Klieman idea and Lance Leipold probably has proper merit. Kalen DeBoer seems very interesting. But, I don’t really know what those guys are thinking. But, I do know they won’t have to beg for conversations. There have to be 100 D1 coaches who would be ready to roll.

You either are the guy who fixes the whole thing and become a legend or you get paid a ton of money to go ranching until 2031. Either way, it seems like a pretty compelling idea.

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Ok, I grant you I spent a lot of time on that. Let’s keep moving here.

From Brian in our DQ report comments:

I thought it interesting that on several plays, including 3 of those sacks, there were 5 DL in the game *plus* Micah (from L-R: 90-99-95-58-92, then 56-97-54-90-92, then 56-90-95-58-92, and then finally 56-95-90-58-92 with Lawrence standing up over C).

Can't always tell from the end-zone view the makeup of the other 5 players on the field on those plays, but you can usually see one or both safeties (6 and 28) as well as the slot corner (2), so I'm guessing it's 5 DL-Micah-5 DBs. That's an interesting wrinkle that I don't think I've seen before and also... nasty. Maybe we have to make up a new term for that... Big Nickel is already gone, so maybe this is Giant Nickel? Mega Nickel? Micah Nickel?

Brian did a very nice job discovering this. The Cowboys were running a 5-Micah-5 defense for 21 plays on Sunday and those 21 plays went for 38 total yards. That is incredible.

I believe it was a new wrinkle or combination of a previous wrinkle, but I will have to do some digging to know for sure. But here are the Cowboys personnel groupings on their defense on Sunday to show you what we are talking about.

From Another Brian on the same topic:

In addition to that, there were several plays where not only was Micah playing off-ball, but there were 5 DL playing in front of him. I’m assuming this is to beef up the run D with us being so short-handed at LB, but they were often blitzing out of this as well.

Now, I want to show you the three sacks, but unlike our piece on Wednesday, let me show you the three plays from the sideline view so you can see all 11 players:

Sack No. 1 - 1st Quarter - 6:05

Here it looks like Cover 1/3 here with six players up front. But, look in presnap at the five man line and then Micah standing behind it. Hypothetically, in a 5-1-5, we are looking at Cover 1 with five potential offensive targets, meaning I need six coverage players. So, the Cowboys appear to rush five and leave one. In this case, it isn’t Micah. It is Sam Williams who drops at first. Once you identify the RB is staying in, you can bring the 6th guy in a green dog type situation. A Green Dog is defined this way: Typically, a Green Dog technique is executed when a linebacker has a running back in Man Coverage, but soon after the snap the linebacker recognizes the running back staying in to block. So that linebacker has the Green light to rush the quarterback.

Here is the 2nd sack in the 5-1-5: 3Q - 15:00 - Dante Fowler.

This time in the 5-Micah-5, Parsons does cover in man as Barkley comes out. The Cowboys are opening the 2nd half by playing this grouping for a reason. It seems to me that if you can put Mazi Smith and Johnathan Hankins on the field together – the massive 320-340 lb run stuffers and still have four significant pass rushers in Dorance Armstrong, DeMarcus Lawrence, Dante Fowler, and Micah, you are now not giving your opponent much of a chance. Fowler beats his weak link, but I am enjoying this discovery by Brian.

3Q - 14:31 - DeMarcus Lawrence sack.

This is the same personnel as the last play and they just pretty much line up Lawrence in the Parsons spot right over the center. Nothing special here. Micah is in coverage with five other rushers all isolating one lineman so that nobody can help. Lawrence will beat every center, too.

Let’s keep an eye out for this grouping to see if Dallas goes to it more down the stretch. The 5-Micah-5 is fascinating to me and I would love to see what the bright offensive minds would try to do to expose it.

Let’s finish with more college football.

From Ryan J. Van Dever:

If it comes down to UW-Oregon in the Pac-12 title game, will the winner make the playoffs even if UW is a 1 loss team?

This is a great question, of course. You are asking if Oregon, which has only one loss and it was to Washington, is able to give Washington its only loss in the Pac-12 championship game, how does the committee sort that out? It is complex, but Oregon would get in due to winning the “championship game at the end of the season” gets slightly higher value.

Why? “Because,” is the best answer. We must give added value to championship games is the best answer. Now, Oregon lost the first matchup, 36-33 on the road. So, does a neutral field offer us a more equitable finale? I think so. I also would doubt that conference would get two.

From Lance J:

Let’s talk some Longhorns, Bob. Its been a while. First, I have concerns that suddenly the head-to-head of Texas at Alabama is going to not mean as much when the committee sits down if Alabama can come all the way back to beat Georgia in their championship game. Also, are you scared for Saturday Night in Ames? I am!

Lance, I am delighted to talk some Horns. I finally got to watch them play TCU on Wednesday because life is pretty busy right now. But, the talking points were everywhere.

• The Jonathan Brooks injury is such a killer. He has been the leader of that offense all year and seems like such a great story, only to have his season ended on what appeared to be a pretty normal tackle in the 4th Quarter. Hearing it is his ACL is an incredible bummer because that could even jeopardize the start of next season. Now, what is the plan for the Longhorns? CJ Baxter is a good one, but I am not sure you can expect him to carry things like Brooks was.

  

  2023 NCAA Yards from Scrimmage Leaders

• Quinn Ewers is always under scrutiny and he appears to be the type of lightning rod that everyone has something to say about. We have certainly maintained optimism about his development moving forward, but things definitely are at an interesting spot. He is probably not healthy right now and his passes at times at TCU were very poor. He is all over the place when he throws the ball downfield and that means so many calls are for passes at or behind the line of scrimmage. But, with Brooks out, you might need to put the ball in your QBs hands at Ames and hope for the best. If he is up for it, it could really be one of his best college moments and would look very nice with his evening in Tuscaloosa. But, he is in for an enormous challenge coming off a TCU game where he made some throws that mattered, but his confidence must be shaken quite a bit and like we said, he is dealing with a pretty significant injury issue where he is trying to help his team have a special moment.

• On the topic of what happens with the playoff committee if they are faced with Alabama beating Georgia and sorting through an Alabama vs Texas tie-breaker. I think we all know what happens, right? Alabama and Georgia will both get in because that will follow the template of how they always do this sort of thing and maybe in the last year of the 4-team system which surely will send the winner of the SEC, the winner of Ohio State/Michigan and the winner of Washington/Oregon with some combination of Alabama, Florida State, and Texas, right? In other words, Texas has to win three more games, but even if they do, this one could be tough for them. They just are going to need some help. Texas would normally get the nod over any smaller-brand school, but Alabama is one of the very short list that could probably survive Texas beating them at home and still shaking it off because they always get away with this sort of thing. In other words, cheer for Georgia.

• Finally, to the issue of Saturday Night in Ames, I want to write this game up so look for a review before midnight on Saturday (or early Sunday) because this could be a very good test. We certainly know the history and we know the difficulty of this spot on the schedule. Texas has dazzled us with their ability to navigate these tight games over the last month and have been “living right” to remain spotless since the Red River. But, this one is probably going to take some help from the defense in a big way. I think most Texas enthusiasts are on pins and needles here and if anyone is willing to lay 7.5 in this game, be my guest. But that is a scary line. Take a one-point win and get out of Iowa, would be my advice.

Anyway, our time is up, so I will promise you a Cowboys pregame piece on Saturday and will try to make sure we get back to our college football content (the Texas Rangers put my plans on hold for a month and we aren’t even a little bit sorry) with Texas-Iowa State. Have a great weekend.