Friday Free Mailbag! Mike McCarthy's Reckoning

The next stretch will push the Cowboys defense as far as it will want to be pushed.

Thanks to the Cowboys deciding to play their last few games on Thursdays, the Friday Free Mailbag has been allowed a hiatus to do some Christmas decorating and probably even knock out holiday shopping.

However, we are back and ready to give you some undivided attention for the next 90 minutes of my best answering of your queries.

I like to open with a brief topic that is on my mind and then we can get to whatever you want – I will tell you, my efforts to make the mailbag a bit less “All Cowboys, All the time” depends on you all. I believe of our dozen or so questions from yesterday’s chat request, 90%+ are about the team that is most on your mind. If you Mavericks/Stars/Rangers/other folks want more space, then get those questions in.

If I make some up in my best Charissa Thompson way of reporting, I might appear hypocritical. We do not want that.

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As we hit the four-week stretch of reckoning on the Cowboys schedule, things will get tighter, tougher, and more nerve-wracking as we go. It is a stretch of games that looks as tough as any December that any team in the league will have from Weeks 14-17:

I am willing to look at other candidates, but this is four playoff-caliber sides and only Buffalo is on the fringe of not making it.

The combined record of these teams is 34-14 and that improves to 28-8 if you take out Buffalo. However, in terms of degrees of difficulty, I might argue Buffalo is your toughest game given that they are largely intact as a roster – at least offensively – and will playing with the utmost degree of desperation.

What that means is that every detail will matter in these four games. In a season that has been pretty absent of high drama games and situations, we should expect we are probably done with comfortable blowouts where our game-day chats are filled with folks wanting the starters pulled after the fourth quarter begins.

And that means that we should expect that from here on out, the game day decision making of Mike McCarthy is going to be up for national review. The Seattle game brought this to the forefront as I wrote about one week ago. Allow me to share a snippet from the Morning After piece to reset the conversation a bit:

We must point out that this was not a wonderful game-management job by Mike McCarthy. One thing about 25-point wins is that your in-game decisions do not seem terribly weighty and vital. Not every choice of taking a field goal or going for it seems to be so important and therefore scrutinized. But, in this game, one where the Cowboys spent time trailing in each and every quarter, McCarthy seemed to take some reckless chances and some others that looked ill-informed. We certainly try not to argue based on outcomes, but the passing of a 2-point conversion late in the 3rd quarter to tie the game at 28-28 was bad enough. But the late game, 3rd down throw into the end zone seemed incredibly perilous and the type of decision that can get you beat. There was 1:52 left, with Dallas facing a crucial 3rd and 3 from the Seattle 14. They were up just three points at 38-35 with Seattle out of timeouts.

Now, on one hand, this coach’s aggressiveness is mostly on point. He is modern and understands the numbers at a very impressive level and one that is polar opposite to his predecessor. He is always on the attack and is willing to roll the dice. He knows that settling for a field goal here is a great way to lose on a night where the defense has had a hard time mixing in stops, so he wants seven. But, throwing to try to end the game with a touchdown will preserve at least 45 more seconds if the throw isn’t successful. Then, the throw selected was a fade to the end zone – a play we know has a low level of probability relatively speaking.

The worst happened in that they didn’t get the touchdown or the time. In an either/or situation, you took neither the time nor the points. Its the kind of decision that can absolutely cost you the game and perhaps, in the month of January, the whole season.

Coaches are allowed off nights as well – especially if you survive them – but, we should hope that this isn’t a sign of things to come as the games get tighter. It is said that one issue with a head coach calling plays is that it hinders his in-game “head coach decisions” a bit, but again, these things aren’t widely relevant in mid-season blowouts vs horrendous teams. In other words, maybe the coach needed a test game before the Eagles showdown, too.

The issues with in-game decision making is that it is usually outcome based. Much like decisions in a baseball playoff game, there are a number of forks in the road where the two brains who are running the opposing sides get to basically decide an “either/or” scenario. Either we go for it or we punt. Either we kick a field goal or we roll the dice and try to go get a touchdown. Either we run here and keep the clock moving or we pass and risk the clock stopping. These decisions are everywhere and obviously, one of them will probably decide the game to a certain extent. We just don’t know which one.

That leaves those of us on the outside to hang on to the other option. Especially if the one that the coach chooses does not work. We don’t have to prove that the other decision would work, because it doesn’t matter. What we know is that the other side is “unknown” and in the sports world, unknown is better than known failure.

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McCarthy has done what we said he would do in the first piece I wrote about him being hired to replace Jason Garrett. We talked about his aggression. His love of going for it on “non mandatory” 4th downs and passing on 1st downs. Also, we documented his team’s ability to rise up in the face of adversity and injury to embrace the challenges and to march on. And we definitely talked about the ability to win at home consistently, avoid losing streaks, and make the playoffs the bare minimum of any season. Heck, we even pointed out his strong effectiveness with the way he uses challenges at a very high rate and wins his share.

But, in fairness, we also did discuss the two issues. The offensive design and lack of further evolution – which seems to have been addressed well. And the other one being the in-game decision making which at times would actually get too conservative late in key moments.

Obviously, what happened Thursday was not conservative. Running the ball and bleeding the clock is the expectation and he is still throwing into the end zone.

The issues with Mike will be tricky, because he is now combining the play-calling of this offense with the sharp decisions that are needed from a head coach. This is a juggling act that cannot be seen in blowouts, but can make the tiny differences is December.

I believe that Mike McCarthy has done an excellent job in 2022 and 2023 as he has continued his build while seeing his name on the Vegas odds of next head coach to be fired. In the last three seasons, only Andy Reid (34) has won more regular season games than Mike McCarthy and Nick Sirianni (33 each). But, like his QB, there are very few things that he can do in December to change his perception. The inability to advance deeper into the playoffs is the ultimate test for his regime and they can’t do that until the do this.

But, each week, his either/or decisions will come under review because they might be the difference between breaking through to the other side or not.

The good news is that he has done it several times and been to many NFC Championship Games. He knows how to get there and how to build a playoff-tough team. He just has to prove it here.

The time is now.

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From Blake: You can have your choice of: Kyle Shanahan as coach Patrick Mahomes as QB Howie Roseman as GM Who do you take and why?

It is a great scenario. I think they are all fantastic at what they do and are the top-ranked at each of those vital spots. So, from that standpoint, if you could have the best GM, best coach, or best QB in the sport to “start your franchise”, which would you pick? Obviously, the QB is what we all lean towards, but I will tell you that if my head coach has "head of football operations” implied, then I am going with that.

What I mean by that is that Shanahan, like Bill Belichick, is basically in charge of his front office. So, you better be sure they know what they are doing because they basically hire the GM as he did with John Lynch in San Francisco. Roseman has had a number of power struggles with his coaches and has emerged as great, but it hasn’t been fun for years at a time.

Mahomes, if you can promise me I get his run from his rookie season all the way through, would probably be the right answer, but individual careers are usually pretty short. I think Shanahan would be my choice, but that might be nuts. I just think his ability to see offense like he does, build a culture like he did, and then inform his front office what kind of player he needs at each spot is a combination that is just remarkable. I am pretty sure he is the best coach in football and has been for about 5 years.

From Jim: Would Texas get the nod over FSU if Georgia had won the SEC Championship?

Great question and we will never know the answer. My gut says Texas was going either way if they hammered Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. If they could win those games with authority, they would be in, regardless of whether Alabama made it look nice. At the same time, I do think Florida State was shafted as a Power 5 team that went undefeated. Also, to leave out the other undefeated Georgia, Michigan, or Washington trio was also not negotiable.

So, when we talk it through, the four unbeaten champions would probably have been the four, but I sure get the impression they were looking for a chance to get Florida State out of there when the Jordan Travis injury went down. I am obviously very pleased for the Longhorns and can’t wait to see if they can win it all, but yes, it feels pretty dirty to me that a major school in a major conference won every game and cannot earn one of the four spots.

For more on this, make sure you read our guest column from the great Wendell Barnhouse from this week. It is a wonderful re-telling of how we got here in college football.

From Kevin Gordon: What makes San Francisco’s run game so effective? How much is scheme? How much is personnel?

I think it is mostly scheme. I say this because the personnel has changed over the last five years and while they are now much better at certain spots - running back and left tackle have both been trades where they basically acquired the best player in the sport at both spots – it is still much of the same stuff they were doing in the 2019 season.

The 2019 season was one of the best 49ers teams of this era and probably should have won the Super Bowl, but a series of unfortunate events put it in the Patrick Mahomes/Andy Reid trophy case.

But, in January of 2020, they beat Aaron Rodgers and the Packers in a NFC Championship Game, 37-20, in one of the most clinical destructions I have ever seen. And this was done BEFORE they had traded for Trent Williams and Christian McCaffrey. Yes, they had a young Deebo Samuel and George Kittle, but this was with Jimmy Garoppolo at the helm. Do you know how many passes he completed that day in his duel with Rodgers? Six!

Here are the team stats from that day I will never forget:

With Raheem Mostert and Tevin Campbell as the running backs and with almost no forward passes at all, they ran their scheme to perfection. Green Bay did turn the ball over several times in their humiliating defeat, but this was a game where they just ran the ball with their own way of motion, misdirection, and speed that made the Packers defense look absolutely ridiculous.

Since then, they have done a very nice job of improving personnel in a lot of places, although you know I think their offensive line is pretty mid-level. But, the scheme was so dominant that day that I will always tell you that it is a scheme that is very difficult to handle – and Dan Quinn would probably agree.

There is a video that is several years old done by the great Brian Baldinger that I want to link to here because it will show you how great the scheme is. I watch it pretty often because the names change, but the plays are still the bones of what they do.

From Jay Beerley: Sirianni gets praised constantly as every set of downs all four will be used type of guy. Do the stats back that up? What is the trend with fourth downs? Go for it more but still situational or just about always go for it?

Check this out. Before I could answer, another reader came with the data:

From Michael Hicks: The data shows that the Eagles have punted 38 times in 12 games, so 3 punts a game. NFL average, btw, is 49.7 punts over the season, or 4 a game. Who’s punted the least? Your very own Dallas Cowboys, with 31 total punts. And one more thing. The range of the number of times teams go for it on fourth down is 8 times this season (Niners) to 29 times (Panthers), where the average is 17 times this season. The Eagles have gone for it 19 times (so just above average), converting 14. Your Cowboys? 17 times, converting 8 times. Looks like Siriani’s rep is a little ahead of his actual behavior, although their conversion % says maybe they should go for it more.

I ran the numbers from 2021-2023. It is a big sample, but here are the findings from PlayFinder:

Here are the top 15 teams in 4th down conversion percentage and we see the Eagles are 3rd. It is probably overstated that they convert them all, but again, this is all 4th downs, not just the 4th and 2 or less.

But, even if we do 4th and short, the Eagles are just 4th in conversion rate at 72%.

As for volume, they have only tried the 7th most. Detroit and Dan Campbell are far and away the most liberal with going for it. The “Brotherly Shove” does have a great success rate and an even better publicity department. I will say one thing, defenders need to stop leaving their feet. I have never played defensive tackle, but you can’t have an anchor if you aren’t anchored to something.

From Michael Hicks: Dallas’s D had the second most and most passing yards against them this season in the last two games. With Philly, Buffalo, Miami, and Detroit within the event horizon now, do you think this is a trend that continues - thereby uncomfortably reminding us of the Romo/No-defense years - or do you think they get this back under wraps? If so, how do you think they do it?

The better passing teams you play, the more trouble you are going to have. This upcoming schedule is relentless in terms of quality coming this way. The next four opponents are the 1st, 2nd, 4th, and 9th best offenses this season in yardage. They are 1st, 4th, 5th, and 13th in passing yardage.

These are elite offenses and Philadelphia is actually the weakest of the four, despite their very impressive group.

So, yes, I have concerns. It will be vital to get to the passer, but we see these teams – besides Philadelphia – are great at protection, too. These are four heavyweight offenses and they are all coming in quick succession.

Are we concerned? Of course. But we should also manage expectations. It has been easy going for a while, but if this defense starts giving up 28 a game, we probably have to remember that they are playing teams that score about 28 a game. It is a tough sport and you are merely trying to outlast now.

From CoachHanson: What’s going on with Dallas’ safeties? Lost a step? Scheme issue? Should Juanyeh Thomas be getting more time over Wilson and/or Kearse? If not, is that a talent issue or a coaching decision to rely on vet experience, in your opinion?

Juanyeh is a very nice player, but I think he is just depth. I have been fine with Malik Hooker this season overall. He is a very solid piece. So, we are talking about Wilson and Kearse. Kearse has struggled, but I don’t think I am willing to look elsewhere. He provides a lot. Wilson has always been a flash player who has some rough snaps. He sort of is in that “is what he is” category, but he always seems to come up with a big play. I guess my answer, coach, is that I am going to stick with these guys. But, I also know that these offenses will be a problem.

From Erick Holt: Just how big a deal is it if McCarthy misses the game Sunday and Schotty calls plays?

Huge. Dan Quinn can probably handle the head coach stuff and Brian Schottenheimer can call the plays with Dak, but I would rather this is not a consideration at all and the word is that we don’t expect it to be an issue. He is likely to be there.

From Chris Park: Re: the running game. There may be no data to support this but it feels like if Dallas ran the ball 10 times to the outside and 10 times to the inside, the positive numbers to the outside would greatly outpace the ones inside. Yet we never see these runs used with any frequency (especially in big games like the Eagles and Niners). Why is that? Fear of big yardage loss? Harder to block without holding? I think the number of designed outside runs that are called will make or break the running game and be one of the major deciding factors for this team come playoff time.

You know what is crazy? I agree with you, but I also say the data does not support us.

The Tony Pollard Next-Gen stats indicate he is a full yard-per-carry better on the inside runs. The success rate is higher to the inside and the stuff rate is triple to the outside. It is really interesting because our anecdotal data seems to say they are way better on the outside.

From Shelby Gray": Gone are the days of this team being able to line up, declare run, run anyway, and just out muscle you for 2-4 yards reliably. We know that the left side is as good and strong as ever. Is C-RG-RT just too weak/old/injuried to get it done all of a sudden? Is there coaching/coordination issues? RB maybe over extended? I feel like lack of running game is going to cost this team in the long run. The defense is good, but has shown it's not able to dominate completely without complimentary football, and call me old school but at some point running the ball is nice.

I share your concerns for sure. I do wonder if there will be a time where they cannot do what needs to be done on the ground, but I also take some solace in the fact that their whole operation is not built on it this year. They have leveraged less on the run game so they don’t depend on it to sink or swim. These next four weeks will tell us a ton, but I do share concerns and I do want to see more Rico Dowdle each week. His ankle has slowed his momentum in the last few weeks, but he feels like McCarthy in December.

From Michael: Zach Martin and Tyron Smith are probably Ring of Honor locks. Dak as well. Micah and CeeDee will have a chance depending on longevity. If the Cowboys can win a Super Bowl while he’s on the roster, does Tank get in?

I would say, yes. I would also say that it is hard to imagine six Cowboys from this current era all actually making the Ring of Honor. But, since you said, “if they win a Super Bowl”, I am willing to attach that if this group of Cowboys can somehow break through to a parade, maybe they put a large group into the ring. It will be quite a party, either way.

From Drew C.: Golf weekend... Lajitas?

Absolutely. One of the most beautiful golf courses you will ever see in one of the most beautiful areas of our state. I will be offline from Friday until kickoff, but the content has already been written.

If you want to see the course, check out this video. It is awesome.

Enjoy your weekend, because I know I will enjoy mine!