Cowboys Mail - Your Q's and My Answers

Plenty more on Dak, Micah, CeeDee, and other Dallas Cowboys issues of the day.

In about a month, we are at training camp to start it all over again.

Time for our periodic Cowboys Mailbag. This one will have plenty of reaction to the story we did this week on Dak Prescott and his possibilities if he decides he would like to see about playing elsewhere. You can catch up on that one here:

Where Else Would He Possibly Go?

And now, on to your questions and queries for this week…

Drew Pitchford

My theory is the Cowboys are waiting to see how Lance looks in the preseason. If he’s terrible, Dak’s deal is done quickly. If he shows potential worthy of where he was drafted, I think they let Dak walk. Am I off base?

I promise you that this is the ideal plan. In any walk of life, when we have a decision to make between what we have and what we think we might want next, we would love to keep one foot on each stone until we are comfortable with how the change might work out. This is often how many of us try to handle our own personal business. Before we quit working for someone else, maybe we should see how we can make our business go on the side and not risk cutting off all other sources of income, right?

The problem is that this is next to impossible in the sports world because so much of it is built on relationships and culture and what your actions say about you. If a QB and his organization are like a marriage, which has many similarities, then you really cannot “test drive” your divorce in this setting without it turning into an absolute circus. And trust me, with the amount of eyeballs evaluating every little detail in training camp and every throw Trey Lance makes and what each of those throws means to Dak Prescott’s future, it would be incredibly chaotic.

Could you do it? Sure. But, with each passing minute, you would make your current QB more bitter and vindictive in his own situation. If you are basically not talking contract with him until you are sure Trey Lance is exactly what San Francisco thought he was – not the future of your position – then he is going to be incredibly annoyed. Imagine dating on the side while your wife stands by and waits for you to conclude that you would actually rather stay married. I think you would change her heart a bit, and not for the better.

So, that might be their strategy. I don’t blame them for wanting to know why they traded a valuable 4th rounder – it could have been their starting RB in April – for a guy who we don’t know much about. Lance has not played much football and for all we know, he is either a complete bust or a future starter. But, how will you ever find out with the other guy here?

That is why I said many months ago that if you really want Trey Lance to be your future, then you should approach Dak Prescott in February and tell him you have no plans to do another deal and ask him if he would wish to be moved in the spring of ‘24 to find his new home and his new contract. I assume he would be open to waiving his no-trade clause, and his agent might even find a new destination. It isn’t hard to predict where he will end up. You approach them, offer them Dak for a 1st and a 3rd right before the 2024 draft (because then they get him for an entire extra year), and everyone wins – provided Lance has any skills at all. Lance is your starter in 2024 and you now have 17 games to see if he is your guy.

The issue then is how much you can sign Lance for. I imagine it will only be a one-year deal because now his agent is trying to recover all the lost money they hoped for on draft day. They were thinking his next extension would be the one Jordan Love is about to sign and now need to prove he is a starter so he can get that deal.

Instead, they did none of that this spring, and now you have to maneuver through a training camp where there will be 24-7 analysis about everything that happens every day.

Dyron Clower

I am curious have they soured Lamb as well. Their negotiation style seems to frustrate players.

Thank you, Dyron. No, I don’t think they have soured on Lamb. I do think they perhaps were not thinking Justin Jefferson was going to put the bar at $35m per season, but he has.

So, Jefferson represents the top of the 2020 draft. I assume Lamb was hoping Tee Higgins and Brandon Aiyuk might settle their situations, but they both have interesting ordeals as well. Higgins is playing under the franchise tag this year because he was not a 1st-round pick. Aiyuk was in the 1st round and is playing under a slightly lower 5th-year option, as Lamb is.

I assume Lamb wants the top deal at his position and I assume the Cowboys think that he is not Justin Jefferson and therefore should not fly past $35 million. Well, if Lamb digs in, he probably gets his way, but he probably would love to avoid that. Aiyuk looks like he is willing to try to force a trade, and the 49ers are obviously dragging their feet because they are literally seeing a window close if they hand out extensions to every member of their roster that wants one. So, if they can buy a year here and there on the guys that need to wait, they perhaps leave their window open before finances start working against them.

But, yes, players don’t want to wait and get frustrated. It is a fun business.

Stan S

You basically said that the Jones have their finances upside down as compared to the rest of the league. What exactly do you mean and some examples? It would seem to me that if they are the only ones doing things a certain way either they are ahead of everyone else or just plain don't care as #1 valued franchise in the world is all they care about. Thanks!

I have written about this a number of times, so in the interest of not writing the exact same thing, allow me to point you to a few of the key spots in the last few months and you can catch up at your leisure.

Here is the big one on how we got into this mess:

The Succession Plan of the Dallas Cowboys

Then a look at how the Jones Family has done business over the last decade in free agency:

Welcome To The Dallas Cowboys in Free Agency

And finally a look at the actual cash spending of this franchise in the last 42 months and you will probably be amazed that they barely have spent any money relative to their rivals:

Responding to your Responses: Free Agency

I think my overall assessment of the Jones family in the Post-COVID world (since 2020), I am not convinced they have gone “all-in” on anything relative to the 49ers and Eagles of the world.

Anyway, read up on those and then we can dig deeper if you dispute the general thoughts.

Blue

How many OTs have been drafted in the 25-35 range like Guyton that start their rookie year? Of those that started how many had good rookie years vs. terrible years? How rare of a thing is it to ask the 29th overall pick to do what we're asking him to do?

It is pretty rare to ask a guy picked this late in the 1st round to step in and be a “passable” rookie left tackle. That is as high as the bar should be, mind you. As a rookie, we are looking for “decent” to “passable,” and then in years 2 and 3, he becomes a stud.

So, I would offer you something like the Minnesota Vikings and the 23rd pick in 2021, Christian Darrisaw, as a good comparison for this idea. He didn’t start until Week 5, but he played well in 2021 and now is the type of guy they want to lock down quickly. Tyler Smith is probably the other guy you are hoping for. Houston’s Tytus Howard has been playing at a reasonable level of guard and was a late 2019 1st-round pick, and Kaleb McGary was awful as Atlanta’s rookie right tackle but has improved every year for them.

Now, it would be reasonable that “the deepest OT draft ever” would produce some gems later down the line, but if your initial premise is that this usually doesn’t work well, I agree. Can’t-miss tackles are usually gone in the top 10, and even then, there is bust potential. By the late 1st round, it is a lot like QB. Guys are still there for a reason.

Nevin

Honest question Bob, if they let Dak walk, what is the point of investing my emotional energy in this team anymore? The complete mismanagement of his contract and the team during his era (let alone Romo/Witten’s era)…..I’m just questioning why I do it.

Nevin, because, every new day and every new season tells us that there is always another young QB who will try to will you up that hill.

I love sports for the infinite renewal of hope. Like a fresh day gives us new energy, so does another week in the NFL or another season. I love following the day to day unraveling of the story and while I get tired of certain elements of the story, the story itself beats “the real world” for me.

That said, I understand your frustration. It would be nice if they would get better at this.

Mike Smartt

Dak is not going to renew the contract. I love Dak and I love the Cowboys but this will be poetic justice for Jerry and Stephen.

The crazy thing about the Dak Prescott story is that the Cowboys did this to themselves. Being proactive with Dak has never happened, so they basically handed the rabbit the gun. But, they also have never been proactive with breaking up with Dak. Either way would work. But, allowing the room to be painted as you keep moving into a corner has left them with no place to move and the amazing part is they seem shocked by how this room has been painted so thoroughly around them!

I write most of these entries from my kitchen table and we have seemingly forecasted almost every move since November of 2018 when I proposed that very first contract offer and the Cowboys waited and waited for things to fall their way. Now, they owe Prescott over $100 million in cap resolution ($55 million in 2024 and $54 million more in dead money if he leaves) and only have him under contract for 17 more games. Remember, if they just paid his four years, $160 million on time, that $109 million should only be $40 million left in 2024 and then they would be all square.

In other words, none of that last paragraph is Dak Prescott’s doing. At all. They did this and that is why 31 other teams are better prepared to do a deal with him moving forward than they are. Then, add to this that they bungled his contract so badly AFTER giving him no trade/no tag clauses is the epitome of “bungled”. It is hard to defend those daft actions, even if you are deep in the owner’s back pocket.

Gregory Gray

Off topic but does this team have enough Defensive Tackles? I can’t believe they will go into the season without adding another DT.

They do not at all. I have been pretty shocked that they have not added to this group at all and I suppose that is a huge sign that they have big plans for Mazi Smith to play a ton. Mike Zimmer must feel better about DT than I do. They seem very short and I would not be shocked to see them try to address this between now and Labor Day.

Michael Hicks

Personally I wouldn’t mind seeing the Cowboys sign Dak, let CEEDEE walk, and sign Parsons. What’s your take on this and your predicted likelihood of that happening

This one is interesting. I have to keep my QB until I think I have a comparable plan to replace him because I study the NFL for a living and there is almost no other option. I think you can really debate keeping one or the other of Lamb and Parsons and I also think you can make a good case either way.

I admit that I have some issues with Micah Parsons that perhaps should be a bigger piece that I write soon. I don’t love that he seems to not produce after Thanksgiving. I don’t love that he seems incredibly distracted from the only thing being the only thing, but I am also a bit old school on that front.

On the other hand, I feel like wide receiver is the one thing that the draft produces plenty of every year – relative to pass rushers and QBs – and for that reason, if I can only pay 2, I probably need to pay my QB and my edge rusher. But, it is not a cinch.

Dave W

What’s the downside of signing Dak, CeeDee and Parsons even if they take up 50% of the cap? Frankly, I don’t understand anyone who thinks letting one of them walk is a good idea. Do we trust the Jones to spend the money better than on those 3 all pros? Would they not be able to sign Tyler Smith? Yes, Cowboys would remain in cap purgatory (and maybe 1 and done purgatory) but all pro edges and WRs aren’t easy to replace.

In the end, this is the right answer.

People will tell you that you will be spending 50% of your cap on three players, but the recipe around the league is that you can pay 5-6 guys top contracts and the rest of your roster is going to be on rookie contracts or very reasonable deals. We should go through and pick out the 5-6 earners on each contender just to put everyone at ease that this is how even the best teams do it.

Right now, the Kansas City Chiefs pay the following five players:

• Patrick Mahomes, $45 million AAV

• Chris Jones, $31.7 million AAV

• Jawaan Taylor, $20 million AAV

• Travis Kelce, $17.1 million AAV

• Joe Thuney, $16 million AAV

San Francisco does the same:

• Nick Bosa, $34 million AAV

• Deebo Samuel, $23.8 million AAV

• Trent Williams, $23 million AAV

• Javon Hargrave, $21 million AAV

• Fred Warner, $19 million AAV

• Christian McCaffrey, $19m AAV

Philadelphia:

• Jalen Hurts, $51 million AAV

• AJ Brown, $32 million AAV

• Devonta Smith, $25 million AAV

• Jordan Mailata, $22 million AAV

• Landon Dickerson, $21 million AAV

• Lane Johnson, $20 million AAV

• Bryce Huff, $17 million AAV

And then here is Dallas presently:

• Dak Prescott, $4 million AAV

• Brandin Cooks, 19.8 million AAV

• Trevon Diggs, 19.4 million AAV

• Zack Martin, $18.4 million AAV

• Terence Steele, $16.5 million AAV

So, as you can see, the Cowboys are the only team on the list of these squads with just one guy over $20m. They have a lot of guys between $16-$20 million , but they are actually well below most teams in the “heavy earners” and have budgeted for this day. The 49ers are playing with a QB who plays for free – for now – but, when and if they give Brock Purdy $50m per, it will get very interesting for them. That should happen next spring.

Austin A

Re: your Dak piece: I'm curious as to why the Dolphins were listed in the second tier and not first. They are dragging their feet on Tua, and for good reason. If he wants anything close to what Dak wants (and it sounds like he does), wouldn't the Dolphins be much better off waiting and seeing if they can get Dak for a comparable price?

I would rather pay Dak than Tua for sure. But Miami has the exact same problem that Dallas has. If Tua has run the Miami offense under Mike McDaniel very well and led the NFL in passing yards in 2023, then he wants “the going rate,” and if you drag your feet too much, you make it the main story of your season.

On the other hand, Miami can always tag Tua for 2025 if they want and might think that waiting on Dak is worthwhile, but also risky. If you are Miami, you probably have to assume that Prescott is ultimately staying in Dallas. But what if he doesn’t?

Tagovailoa also has health concerns that are always lurking and, yes, issues late in the season and against the best teams come playoff time. In fact, many have compared the Dolphins to an AFC version of the Cowboys.

In other words, every team has its issues at the QB spot unless you have a guy named Mahomes. Everyone else is chasing the king.