The Jones boys suffer from the old Office Space quote, “What is that you’d say you do around here?” It’s clear as day that Will McClay runs the draft which happens to be the engine that drives the success of the team, while ostensibly, they would be responsible for free agency and resigning of their own players. From an outsider perspective, those lines seem to be clear cut as Will seems to have very little to no influence on those two buckets of decisions.
Well outside of last year’s draft, it’s hard to argue against the job Will has done, but Jerry and Stephen have seemingly gone on permanent vacation. Their own stated number one priority has been the resigning of their top guys, but every report that’s come out about those negotiations claim, at best, they’ve barely even started. It’s almost as if the team is a secondary or tertiary concern to them as they have shown little to no aggression in doing any work to make the team better. It’s honestly baffling and almost seems a sort of self sabotage driven by ego, pride, hubris, laziness, cheapness or indifference
Outside of their self appointed role of team spokesman, being interviewed after every game, hosting weekly radio hits and rambling incoherently in the offseason redefining previously understood terms such as all-in, they don’t seem to have much interest in the day to day or big picture hard work of running an efficient forward-thinking NFL franchise
I know it’ll never happen but it’s clear that it’s beyond time to hand the reigns to a real life GM (ie Will McClay) that is responsible for handling all aspects of the job, open up their checkbooks and stay away from any and all microphones. Until then, it seems any success will be in spite of itself as opposed to earned on its merits.
Sorry for the rant but it’s clearly been bugging me for a very long time lol
I would be so stressed out if I worked like the Jones. Having these contract problems hanging over me without resolution would kill me. I don’t know how they live like that.
AMEN! Well said. Jerry, and sadly Stephen seem to be consumed with delusion that all that matters is their own egos. Stepping back and allowing more savvy people (i.e. Will McClay) to run the football ops, seems so easy from our vantage point, yet so hard from theirs. Until the day that Mr. McClay is tired of financial gain and chooses to pursue legacy, we will see a smattering of success. After his pockets are filled, and he chooses to run his own show, then the clown car in big D arrives in all it's glory hole.
Dak played the best football of his career. MM really helped him improve. Still, it wasn’t a coincidence that JJ a) didn’t extend MM, three straight 12 win seasons be demand, b) traded for a QB the 49ers thought once was a unicorn, c) played hard to get with Dak.
On the other hand, Dak could well decide to sign with the Giants or commanders and watch JJ wiggle in agony.
Controversial, but I think I would be happy to listen to trade offers for both Parsons and Lamb. If we're truly going to let Dak walk - why not obtain as many draft assets as possible to rebuild the roster.
Crazy to me that Dak just finished SECOND in the MVP voting (which is the most prestigious award after Super Bowl MVP in my estimation) yet on the Ticket yall talk about how he might be above average and supposed sports experts rate him around 50 in the league. I know he hasn’t had great outcomes in the playoffs but NO ONE in the NFL where 50 players determine the outcome of the game can win it without the other guys playing great. Many games have been won with the team overcoming average or below average QB play. Mahomes won a Super Bowl MVP throwing for 286 yds, 2 TDs, 2 INTs, a 78.1 rating, and ran for 29 yds a 3.2 average and 1 TD, if they would have lost they would have said he sucked (which he wasn’t good until the 4th quarter) but since his team kept him in it with what would have been called a shit Dak game he wins a SB MVP because they won. People have no perspective.
Mahomes is the best QB of his generation and may go on to be the GOAT. Thirty-one head coaches in the league would trade their QB for Mahomes. He does things that we have never seen anyone else do. You wonder if KC makes the playoffs without him instead of being a perennial super bowl favorite.
The reason Dak put up such gaudy stats is because of the soft schedule he played. To illustrate: Dallas only scored more than 20 points against three teams (four games) with above .500 win percentage. (Eagles 11-7, Rams 10-6, Seahawks 9-8.) Think about that; with a defensive back who set the NFL record for pick-sixes on the team, and a defense that lead the league in scoring by defense, they could only score 20 points or more against 3 winning teams! If you think that isn’t so bad, let’s dive a little deeper. According to Fox Sports News those teams were ranked 19th (Rams), 25th (Seahawks), and 30th (Eagles) in points scored against. In other words their defenses were garbage.
So that means in 2023 Dallas scored more than 20 points against winning teams with defenses ranked in the top half of the league in scoring defense exactly ZERO times. Let that sink in… No wonder they can’t win playoff games.
The notion that Dallas had a great or even good offense in 2023 is a statistical illusion. Dallas’s offense was good enough to run the score up on bad defenses but was not the equal of good NFL defenses and could not score against them last year. Dallas played a lot of teams with poor defenses that could not stop any team from scoring. The weight of that child abuse statistically overwhelmed and disguised Dallas’s inability to challenge competent defenses with its smaller sample size.
In fact during the 2023 regular season they were particularly able to pad their stats as they played only two teams with defenses ranked in the top 10, the 49ers (3rd) and the Bills (4th). In those two games they managed to score 20 points total. It’s not all Daks fault, but is Dak an MVP candidate? I think not.
Pretty arbitrary point cutoff, especially considering they scored 20 against the Lions and the Dolphins. Plus you left out the Packers, which, while not regular season, was more than your 20 point barrier.
It’s clear you’re pushing a narrative not based on reality. Let’s look instead at stats that take into account the quality of opponent compared to an average NFL offense. Dak was the 5th best deep ball passer per EPA. The Cowboys offense was 2nd in EPA/play and 2nd in success rate. 2nd in EPA/pass play. These are all courtesy of PFF.
You can only play your opponent. Dak had an outstanding season by any metric.
It’s ok if you don’t understand EPA. Points per game is a mediocre indicator at best. As many like you love to point out, teams rack up stats in garbage time. This skews many counting numbers.
I understand EPA just fine Mike, no need to get catty. EPA doesn’t take into account the quality of the other team. It doesn’t matter how good or poor the other team is, It takes into account down, distance and field position only.
So playing a steady diet of poor defenses boosts your EPA.
Dak’s EPA in playoffs against the Packers in 2023 was 3.5 total on 73 plays. (that’s very bad.) All those yards and points in garbage time couldn’t save his EPA from a disastrous first half. His EPA was 1.1 on 41 plays vs Buffalo (even worse) and 1.3 on 28 plays vs SF. (Slightly less putrid but still very bad.) Those were the only top 10 defenses the Cowboys faced in 2023 including playoffs and Dak’s EPA in those three games was horrible. Dak sucks against good defenses. It doesn’t matter how good his EPA is against bad teams, he didn’t beat good defenses and his EPA stats when playing better defenses backs that up.
Had to cut it somewhere. Below 20 points is what I personally call an unsuccessful offensive outing. I didn’t go into the Dolphins or Lions because my comment was already too long. But since you brought it up, the Dolphins are ranked 22nd in points against, the Lions are ranked 23rd. So you are helping me prove my point. Dallas couldn’t score more than 20 points against two other garbage defenses. As far as the Dallas’s incredible EPA, that was because all the defenses they played were between average and awful, (including eight of the bottom 10) except for two. He couldn’t score against those two. (10 ppg average).
Yet the Lions made the NFC championship game. So clearly the defensive ranking you’re trumpeting isn’t that important.
EPA is opponent neutral. It’s calculated relative to expectation. This means if you’re playing a bad team, you’re expected to perform better. If you’re playing a good team, you’re expected to perform worse.
sometimes it is an illusion........this reminds me of the 2021 season when people claimed the cowboys had the highest scoring offense(they actually were not, not #2 either) and when I took a deep dive into their season it turned out almost HALF their points scored were in only 6 nfc east games. You have to go deeper than the numbers to get the real story - they are just part of it.
I wouldn’t argue Mahomes isn’t great (love the guy and KC has been my AFC team since I was a kid), but you’re cherry picking stats which can be done in the opposite direction. KC went 2-4 against teams with a record better than .500 last year, L Detroit scoring 20, W Miami scoring 21, L Philadelphia scoring 17, L GB scoring 19, L Buffalo scoring 17, and W Cincinnati scoring 25. So they averaged 19.8 points against teams with winning records and only won 1/3 of those games. Is Mahomes an average QB who only puts up stats against bad teams? Of course he isn’t, he has a chance to be the best ever. I think if you look at any team and QB they get their great stats against bad teams and they struggle more against good teams through the year, that’s the reality of the parity of the NFL.
That’s fair Seth. I agree stats can be manipulated and cherry picked. Mahomes has proven he can win big games against top completion in the playoffs or Super Bowl and is immune to this sort of criticism. If Dak had ever done that (or does so in the future) in his NFL career even once, I would back off quickly.
You also completely failed to address his point that had Dak played a game with the stats Mahomes did and the Cowboys lost, it would have been universally panned as a bad performance. But because the Chiefs won, Mahomes “pulled it out”. It’s all perspective and narratives.
Okay, let’s talk about individual performances. In the playoffs against the Packers Dak just plain crapped the bed. We all saw it. When Dallas played SF they scored 10 points. Mahomes had a rough night against the 3rd ranked defense in the league no doubt, but then he stepped up and imposed his will in OT, scrambling on a 4th and 1 and won the Super Bowl against a SF team that owns Dallas. Was there a lifetime achievement/popularity element to it? Maybe. Hail to the King.
Nobody is arguing Dak vs Mahomes. That’s pointless.
41/60, 400 yards, 3/2 TD/INT is not crapping the bed. But that’s not the point. The real point is this —>
QB playoff record when defense allows 30+ points:
Brady - 2-3
Rodgers - 1-5
Brees - 0-3
Montana - 0-3
Favre - 0-7
P. Manning - 2-4
Elway - 0-6
Big Ben - 0-6
That game was lost by the defense far more than it was lost by the QB. Could he have played better? Yes. Was it entirely his fault they lost? Not even close.
Didn’t crap the bed? He directly scored 7 more points more for the Packers than he scored for the Cowboys (0) in the first half. And he set up another easy touchdown with the Alexander interception on the 17 yard line. Then he tried to throw another one to a linebacker but he dropped it. He’s responsible for half the 28 points the Packers scored in the first half. If that isn’t crapping the bed I don’t know what is. So yes, he is very responsible. Take those two scores away and the Packers don’t score 30 points. He has nice stats in the game on first glance, but those 403 yards etc. are disguising a crap EPA of 3.5 on 73 plays.
He’s responsible for 7. That’s how the game works. If the play discount lead directly to points, the defense gave it up. To the tune of Jordan freaking Love only needing to throw 21 passes. How about 6/151 from Doubs? Dak’s fault. 21/118/3 from Jones? Dak’s fault. 7.7 yards per play? Dak’s fault. 0 sacks? Dak’s fault. 4-4 red zone success? Dak’s fault.
GTFO with this nonsense. The defense crapped the bed, and it would have taken a literal perfect day from the offense to keep up. Micah? 2 tackles, 0 sacks, 1 QB hit. DPOY!!!!
dak absolutely crapped the bed. 14 of the packers first 27 points were given to them directly by dak.
1st drive he had 0 completed 2/a for 0 yards.
2nd drive a pick gave GB the ball at our 19.
3rd drive he takes a sack to knock Dallas out of FG range and force a punt.
. 4th drive throws a pick 6.
so in the first 4 drives he takes us out of FG range and puts green bay in the position to get 14 points and the gb offense only needs to move a TOTAL of 19 yards to get them.
Yes, the pick 6 led directly to points. The defense gave up the rest. Turnovers, unless points are scored on the same play, never lead “directly” to points, regardless of how badly you want to believe that.
Two runs by Jones inside the 5 were punched in for TD’s. Dak’s fault. 20 yard TD pass. Dak’s fault. 9 yard TD run. 38 yard TD pass. 3 yard TD pass. Defense sure was awesome that day huh? But yeah, Dak crapped the bed. Ok pal.
Regarding the high earners - Dallas is in a unique position of having to pay their top 3 at the 3 highest earning positions. I believe that’s why KC traded Hill to Miami. Going rate contracts for Dak, CD and Parsons would be over $120m. Roughly 25% more than KC pays their top 3 and 10%+ more than the rest of the teams.
well, yes, I suppose. But, this is a timing issue. I did not list the signing year for each player, but I can assure you if they were all 2024, then you would see that 10% has been added for everyone. This is how the market works.
I think that goes without saying, but given the high cap %s for those positions it’s reasonable (IMHO) to ask if you would rather have a WR1 or a stud LB and Guard/safety etc. Now back to the point. You don’t have to decide that now as Dak has another year. Let it play out and then decide who needs to stay. Personally I’d be extending Parsons now on the cheap(er)…..but I share your reservations about some of his weaknesses. Maybe I’m tainted because I think WR1 is over valued at this point in time.
From a supply and demand perspective you are absolutely right. There’s great demand for premium edges, but a limited supply. There’s a great demand for WRs, but a seemingly unlimited supply. Part of the problem with the normal fluctuations of WRs compared to other positions is that the very good receivers demand and get contracts that are higher than the last guy to sign one rather than being paid according to their talents compared to the elite wideouts. None of players or agents will complain about this.
Until the pay scales for good, but lesser talents align with what can be a subjective valuation, and forces the great ones to such a premium amount that the owners refuse to sabatoge their salary cap, then contracts will continue to escalate each offseason. Certain owners , in their haste to lock up their own receivers or steal another team’s, have escalated the rising pay scale.
The same thing happened when Mahomes signed his half a billion dollar deal. Where $35 million had pretty much been the top of the QB market, overnight it jumped to $40-45 million in an instant.
Most advanced numbers point to WR being the second most impactful position behind QB. And before you say they’re so easy to find, remember the Jefferson/Lamb draft. The order there was Ruggs, Jeudy, Lamb, Reagor, Jefferson, Aiyuk.
The flip side is you could also look at that same draft and see the AJ Epenesa is arguably the best edge in the first three rounds.
Micah, for as talented as he is, has some very serious flaws in terms of durability/conditioning/endurance/however you want to phrase his consistent disappearing act in the latter stages of the season, and it’s been shown he is easy to game plan around. Look no further than his “impact” in the GB game. From that perspective I’d trade him while the stock is sky high for 2 1’s and some more, sign CeeDee, and pray Dak sticks around.
While there have certainly been high draft pick receivers who have failed to meet expectation, without any real proof I would bet the percentage of edge prospects that fail to live up to their reputation is even higher and they generally take longer to develop into real weapons. There at least seems to be more receivers who can put up big numbers in the right system, thus making Lamb easier to replace than Parsons. I’m not advocating to trade either one, just say that with a high draft pick received in a trade, it would be harder to find someone to replicate Parsons’numbers than Lamb’s.
There hasn’t been much of a correlation between having a WR1 and winning championships….granted a lot of that had to do with Mahomes and Brady…. I guess the good thing is we don’t need to decide now (knowing it may cost more next year)….if Dak busts again late this year it makes it easier to move on and keep both Lamb and Parsons.
Thanks for the answer Bob! I agree it would be like trying out your girlfriend before going to the lawyer.
Ultimately, though I’ve been a Dak fan and supporter since that preseason in 2016, I can understand both arguments. The kind of person, leader, face of the organization he is… plus he does produce at a high level I can understand signing him.
But the fact that he cannot produce at a high-level in the highest level of games, I can understand not signing him. Either way, I just want to see the situation resolved.
If things don’t go well this year, and MM and Dak walk, I could see them ending up at the next organization together. Assuming the Jets don’t have a good year, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them there.
Bob, after decades, I have finally moved the Cowboys to the Bravo Channel equivalent of what takes space in my head. I no longer hope for playoff success. Jerry has shown me time and time again that he defines success as growing his own bank account by using the Cowboys as collateral for what ever the next “Blockchaincom” deal is or the next fight, concert, or concession deal is.
I really think he needs to be appreciated for the cartoonish content he brings to the sport. Sign Zeke? Sure! Let key free agents go? You bet! Let your coach and top three players play out a final year? Sign me up! At this point, I want to see him sign Johnny Manzel, Hardy, and any other f-up to the training camp roster and I will make a new batch of popcorn.
What I won’t do is expect a focus on football because that’s not Job 1. Hell, it’s not even Job 5.
McCarthy and Dak have done the best the can with the hand they are dealt, but if they want to reach the mountain top, it won’t be in Dallas and anyone saying different is kidding themselves. Do you really still think that three years of 12-5 validates the Dallas Cowboys front office has a will to win, or is that just going to be air cover for continuing to take the money from the ATM that is the franchise and have them invest is in other places with a higher return?
So well said Eric. Die hard lifelong born and raised in Dallas cowboy fan. The cowgirls are a joke. I honestly thought that when Jerry finally passes the rains to Stephen things would be different but clearly they will not be. Daddy has trained his son well. I can handle not winning it all, but this is just getting absurd.
As to the husband / wife analogy, looks like the wife (Dak) is looking for a bigger diamond ring from someone - doesn't matter who. If her current husband - OK. But will take other offers.
The husband (Jones) might get tired of the drama and kick wife to the curb and hope it works out with the new GF. (Lance)
Logic dictates that if you are not going to resign your starting QB then unless your backup is starter material there is no point in signing your WR1 to a big contract. At that point you also probably don’t want sign your DE1 to a big contract either because now you are very likely a crummy team and should tear it all down. Unfortunately Jerry and Stephen think they’re the smartest guys in the room who will get their cake and eat it too when in reality they are the stinky turd you just stepped in. It just gets worse every year and with Stephen on deck it will get even more worse AND less entertaining.
Great point Mark, it’s all or nothing. The tent will likely fold if you remove Dak or Cee Dee from the equation. Not a lot of middle ground that makes sense.
Bob: With all the new stuff (new defined as non-Cowboys) since you started Sturmstack, it's nice to have an occasional "old standby". Thanks for another fine piece.
I know this is a late reply, so it probably won’t get seen by many. However, in regards to the husband/wife analogy; isn’t this what GB has done twice successfully with Rodgers succeeding Favre and now Love succeeding Rodgers? I know Lance is very much unlikely to be Rodgers or 2nd half of 2023 Love, but in theory the idea is the same, no? Although, I can’t say I think this process would work in Dallas where the coverage of the team dwarfs that of the Packers.
"I admit that I have some issues with Micah Parsons that perhaps should be a bigger piece that I write soon. I don’t love that he seems to not produce after Thanksgiving. I don’t love that he seems incredibly distracted from the only thing being the only thing, but I am also a bit old school on that front."
I am happy you wrote this. As someone that follows the team from Omaha, Nebraska, the amount of "it seems like the franchise is frustrated by Micah" rhetoric I have heard on podcasts or in articles lately has piqued my interest. Some of it seems obvious on its face - how he is on pods, for example - but I have to imagine the insiders are hearing a lot more behind the scenes that someone not plugged in isn't hearing at all. Would love to know more.
The Jones boys suffer from the old Office Space quote, “What is that you’d say you do around here?” It’s clear as day that Will McClay runs the draft which happens to be the engine that drives the success of the team, while ostensibly, they would be responsible for free agency and resigning of their own players. From an outsider perspective, those lines seem to be clear cut as Will seems to have very little to no influence on those two buckets of decisions.
Well outside of last year’s draft, it’s hard to argue against the job Will has done, but Jerry and Stephen have seemingly gone on permanent vacation. Their own stated number one priority has been the resigning of their top guys, but every report that’s come out about those negotiations claim, at best, they’ve barely even started. It’s almost as if the team is a secondary or tertiary concern to them as they have shown little to no aggression in doing any work to make the team better. It’s honestly baffling and almost seems a sort of self sabotage driven by ego, pride, hubris, laziness, cheapness or indifference
Outside of their self appointed role of team spokesman, being interviewed after every game, hosting weekly radio hits and rambling incoherently in the offseason redefining previously understood terms such as all-in, they don’t seem to have much interest in the day to day or big picture hard work of running an efficient forward-thinking NFL franchise
I know it’ll never happen but it’s clear that it’s beyond time to hand the reigns to a real life GM (ie Will McClay) that is responsible for handling all aspects of the job, open up their checkbooks and stay away from any and all microphones. Until then, it seems any success will be in spite of itself as opposed to earned on its merits.
Sorry for the rant but it’s clearly been bugging me for a very long time lol
I would be so stressed out if I worked like the Jones. Having these contract problems hanging over me without resolution would kill me. I don’t know how they live like that.
Well, they do have that $250 million yacht to take away some of the sting,
AMEN! Well said. Jerry, and sadly Stephen seem to be consumed with delusion that all that matters is their own egos. Stepping back and allowing more savvy people (i.e. Will McClay) to run the football ops, seems so easy from our vantage point, yet so hard from theirs. Until the day that Mr. McClay is tired of financial gain and chooses to pursue legacy, we will see a smattering of success. After his pockets are filled, and he chooses to run his own show, then the clown car in big D arrives in all it's glory hole.
I know I sound like a broken record but it completely amazes me that Dak's deal isn't done.
Dak played the best football of his career. MM really helped him improve. Still, it wasn’t a coincidence that JJ a) didn’t extend MM, three straight 12 win seasons be demand, b) traded for a QB the 49ers thought once was a unicorn, c) played hard to get with Dak.
On the other hand, Dak could well decide to sign with the Giants or commanders and watch JJ wiggle in agony.
Controversial, but I think I would be happy to listen to trade offers for both Parsons and Lamb. If we're truly going to let Dak walk - why not obtain as many draft assets as possible to rebuild the roster.
I’d trade Parsons in a heartbeat for a couple 1’s and some extra things. He should fetch more than Mack did
Crazy to me that Dak just finished SECOND in the MVP voting (which is the most prestigious award after Super Bowl MVP in my estimation) yet on the Ticket yall talk about how he might be above average and supposed sports experts rate him around 50 in the league. I know he hasn’t had great outcomes in the playoffs but NO ONE in the NFL where 50 players determine the outcome of the game can win it without the other guys playing great. Many games have been won with the team overcoming average or below average QB play. Mahomes won a Super Bowl MVP throwing for 286 yds, 2 TDs, 2 INTs, a 78.1 rating, and ran for 29 yds a 3.2 average and 1 TD, if they would have lost they would have said he sucked (which he wasn’t good until the 4th quarter) but since his team kept him in it with what would have been called a shit Dak game he wins a SB MVP because they won. People have no perspective.
Mahomes is the best QB of his generation and may go on to be the GOAT. Thirty-one head coaches in the league would trade their QB for Mahomes. He does things that we have never seen anyone else do. You wonder if KC makes the playoffs without him instead of being a perennial super bowl favorite.
The reason Dak put up such gaudy stats is because of the soft schedule he played. To illustrate: Dallas only scored more than 20 points against three teams (four games) with above .500 win percentage. (Eagles 11-7, Rams 10-6, Seahawks 9-8.) Think about that; with a defensive back who set the NFL record for pick-sixes on the team, and a defense that lead the league in scoring by defense, they could only score 20 points or more against 3 winning teams! If you think that isn’t so bad, let’s dive a little deeper. According to Fox Sports News those teams were ranked 19th (Rams), 25th (Seahawks), and 30th (Eagles) in points scored against. In other words their defenses were garbage.
So that means in 2023 Dallas scored more than 20 points against winning teams with defenses ranked in the top half of the league in scoring defense exactly ZERO times. Let that sink in… No wonder they can’t win playoff games.
The notion that Dallas had a great or even good offense in 2023 is a statistical illusion. Dallas’s offense was good enough to run the score up on bad defenses but was not the equal of good NFL defenses and could not score against them last year. Dallas played a lot of teams with poor defenses that could not stop any team from scoring. The weight of that child abuse statistically overwhelmed and disguised Dallas’s inability to challenge competent defenses with its smaller sample size.
In fact during the 2023 regular season they were particularly able to pad their stats as they played only two teams with defenses ranked in the top 10, the 49ers (3rd) and the Bills (4th). In those two games they managed to score 20 points total. It’s not all Daks fault, but is Dak an MVP candidate? I think not.
Pretty arbitrary point cutoff, especially considering they scored 20 against the Lions and the Dolphins. Plus you left out the Packers, which, while not regular season, was more than your 20 point barrier.
It’s clear you’re pushing a narrative not based on reality. Let’s look instead at stats that take into account the quality of opponent compared to an average NFL offense. Dak was the 5th best deep ball passer per EPA. The Cowboys offense was 2nd in EPA/play and 2nd in success rate. 2nd in EPA/pass play. These are all courtesy of PFF.
You can only play your opponent. Dak had an outstanding season by any metric.
Points scored against isn’t that important? It’s the only thing that counts other than points for. Let’s agree to disagree.
It’s ok if you don’t understand EPA. Points per game is a mediocre indicator at best. As many like you love to point out, teams rack up stats in garbage time. This skews many counting numbers.
I understand EPA just fine Mike, no need to get catty. EPA doesn’t take into account the quality of the other team. It doesn’t matter how good or poor the other team is, It takes into account down, distance and field position only.
https://bestballstats.com/expected-points-added-a-full-explanation/
So playing a steady diet of poor defenses boosts your EPA.
Dak’s EPA in playoffs against the Packers in 2023 was 3.5 total on 73 plays. (that’s very bad.) All those yards and points in garbage time couldn’t save his EPA from a disastrous first half. His EPA was 1.1 on 41 plays vs Buffalo (even worse) and 1.3 on 28 plays vs SF. (Slightly less putrid but still very bad.) Those were the only top 10 defenses the Cowboys faced in 2023 including playoffs and Dak’s EPA in those three games was horrible. Dak sucks against good defenses. It doesn’t matter how good his EPA is against bad teams, he didn’t beat good defenses and his EPA stats when playing better defenses backs that up.
Had to cut it somewhere. Below 20 points is what I personally call an unsuccessful offensive outing. I didn’t go into the Dolphins or Lions because my comment was already too long. But since you brought it up, the Dolphins are ranked 22nd in points against, the Lions are ranked 23rd. So you are helping me prove my point. Dallas couldn’t score more than 20 points against two other garbage defenses. As far as the Dallas’s incredible EPA, that was because all the defenses they played were between average and awful, (including eight of the bottom 10) except for two. He couldn’t score against those two. (10 ppg average).
Yet the Lions made the NFC championship game. So clearly the defensive ranking you’re trumpeting isn’t that important.
EPA is opponent neutral. It’s calculated relative to expectation. This means if you’re playing a bad team, you’re expected to perform better. If you’re playing a good team, you’re expected to perform worse.
sometimes it is an illusion........this reminds me of the 2021 season when people claimed the cowboys had the highest scoring offense(they actually were not, not #2 either) and when I took a deep dive into their season it turned out almost HALF their points scored were in only 6 nfc east games. You have to go deeper than the numbers to get the real story - they are just part of it.
I wouldn’t argue Mahomes isn’t great (love the guy and KC has been my AFC team since I was a kid), but you’re cherry picking stats which can be done in the opposite direction. KC went 2-4 against teams with a record better than .500 last year, L Detroit scoring 20, W Miami scoring 21, L Philadelphia scoring 17, L GB scoring 19, L Buffalo scoring 17, and W Cincinnati scoring 25. So they averaged 19.8 points against teams with winning records and only won 1/3 of those games. Is Mahomes an average QB who only puts up stats against bad teams? Of course he isn’t, he has a chance to be the best ever. I think if you look at any team and QB they get their great stats against bad teams and they struggle more against good teams through the year, that’s the reality of the parity of the NFL.
That’s fair Seth. I agree stats can be manipulated and cherry picked. Mahomes has proven he can win big games against top completion in the playoffs or Super Bowl and is immune to this sort of criticism. If Dak had ever done that (or does so in the future) in his NFL career even once, I would back off quickly.
You also completely failed to address his point that had Dak played a game with the stats Mahomes did and the Cowboys lost, it would have been universally panned as a bad performance. But because the Chiefs won, Mahomes “pulled it out”. It’s all perspective and narratives.
Okay, let’s talk about individual performances. In the playoffs against the Packers Dak just plain crapped the bed. We all saw it. When Dallas played SF they scored 10 points. Mahomes had a rough night against the 3rd ranked defense in the league no doubt, but then he stepped up and imposed his will in OT, scrambling on a 4th and 1 and won the Super Bowl against a SF team that owns Dallas. Was there a lifetime achievement/popularity element to it? Maybe. Hail to the King.
Nobody is arguing Dak vs Mahomes. That’s pointless.
41/60, 400 yards, 3/2 TD/INT is not crapping the bed. But that’s not the point. The real point is this —>
QB playoff record when defense allows 30+ points:
Brady - 2-3
Rodgers - 1-5
Brees - 0-3
Montana - 0-3
Favre - 0-7
P. Manning - 2-4
Elway - 0-6
Big Ben - 0-6
That game was lost by the defense far more than it was lost by the QB. Could he have played better? Yes. Was it entirely his fault they lost? Not even close.
: )
Thanks for this. Good stuff!
Didn’t crap the bed? He directly scored 7 more points more for the Packers than he scored for the Cowboys (0) in the first half. And he set up another easy touchdown with the Alexander interception on the 17 yard line. Then he tried to throw another one to a linebacker but he dropped it. He’s responsible for half the 28 points the Packers scored in the first half. If that isn’t crapping the bed I don’t know what is. So yes, he is very responsible. Take those two scores away and the Packers don’t score 30 points. He has nice stats in the game on first glance, but those 403 yards etc. are disguising a crap EPA of 3.5 on 73 plays.
He’s responsible for 7. That’s how the game works. If the play discount lead directly to points, the defense gave it up. To the tune of Jordan freaking Love only needing to throw 21 passes. How about 6/151 from Doubs? Dak’s fault. 21/118/3 from Jones? Dak’s fault. 7.7 yards per play? Dak’s fault. 0 sacks? Dak’s fault. 4-4 red zone success? Dak’s fault.
GTFO with this nonsense. The defense crapped the bed, and it would have taken a literal perfect day from the offense to keep up. Micah? 2 tackles, 0 sacks, 1 QB hit. DPOY!!!!
dak absolutely crapped the bed. 14 of the packers first 27 points were given to them directly by dak.
1st drive he had 0 completed 2/a for 0 yards.
2nd drive a pick gave GB the ball at our 19.
3rd drive he takes a sack to knock Dallas out of FG range and force a punt.
. 4th drive throws a pick 6.
so in the first 4 drives he takes us out of FG range and puts green bay in the position to get 14 points and the gb offense only needs to move a TOTAL of 19 yards to get them.
that is the epitome of crapping the bed
Yes, the pick 6 led directly to points. The defense gave up the rest. Turnovers, unless points are scored on the same play, never lead “directly” to points, regardless of how badly you want to believe that.
Two runs by Jones inside the 5 were punched in for TD’s. Dak’s fault. 20 yard TD pass. Dak’s fault. 9 yard TD run. 38 yard TD pass. 3 yard TD pass. Defense sure was awesome that day huh? But yeah, Dak crapped the bed. Ok pal.
Regarding the high earners - Dallas is in a unique position of having to pay their top 3 at the 3 highest earning positions. I believe that’s why KC traded Hill to Miami. Going rate contracts for Dak, CD and Parsons would be over $120m. Roughly 25% more than KC pays their top 3 and 10%+ more than the rest of the teams.
well, yes, I suppose. But, this is a timing issue. I did not list the signing year for each player, but I can assure you if they were all 2024, then you would see that 10% has been added for everyone. This is how the market works.
It’s more than timing. It’s the fact that edge, QB and WR are the highest paid NFL positions.
I am aware. But it is highest for a reason - impact. There is nothing wrong with investing in high impact positions. The methods are the issue.
I think that goes without saying, but given the high cap %s for those positions it’s reasonable (IMHO) to ask if you would rather have a WR1 or a stud LB and Guard/safety etc. Now back to the point. You don’t have to decide that now as Dak has another year. Let it play out and then decide who needs to stay. Personally I’d be extending Parsons now on the cheap(er)…..but I share your reservations about some of his weaknesses. Maybe I’m tainted because I think WR1 is over valued at this point in time.
From a supply and demand perspective you are absolutely right. There’s great demand for premium edges, but a limited supply. There’s a great demand for WRs, but a seemingly unlimited supply. Part of the problem with the normal fluctuations of WRs compared to other positions is that the very good receivers demand and get contracts that are higher than the last guy to sign one rather than being paid according to their talents compared to the elite wideouts. None of players or agents will complain about this.
Until the pay scales for good, but lesser talents align with what can be a subjective valuation, and forces the great ones to such a premium amount that the owners refuse to sabatoge their salary cap, then contracts will continue to escalate each offseason. Certain owners , in their haste to lock up their own receivers or steal another team’s, have escalated the rising pay scale.
The same thing happened when Mahomes signed his half a billion dollar deal. Where $35 million had pretty much been the top of the QB market, overnight it jumped to $40-45 million in an instant.
Most advanced numbers point to WR being the second most impactful position behind QB. And before you say they’re so easy to find, remember the Jefferson/Lamb draft. The order there was Ruggs, Jeudy, Lamb, Reagor, Jefferson, Aiyuk.
The flip side is you could also look at that same draft and see the AJ Epenesa is arguably the best edge in the first three rounds.
Micah, for as talented as he is, has some very serious flaws in terms of durability/conditioning/endurance/however you want to phrase his consistent disappearing act in the latter stages of the season, and it’s been shown he is easy to game plan around. Look no further than his “impact” in the GB game. From that perspective I’d trade him while the stock is sky high for 2 1’s and some more, sign CeeDee, and pray Dak sticks around.
While there have certainly been high draft pick receivers who have failed to meet expectation, without any real proof I would bet the percentage of edge prospects that fail to live up to their reputation is even higher and they generally take longer to develop into real weapons. There at least seems to be more receivers who can put up big numbers in the right system, thus making Lamb easier to replace than Parsons. I’m not advocating to trade either one, just say that with a high draft pick received in a trade, it would be harder to find someone to replicate Parsons’numbers than Lamb’s.
There hasn’t been much of a correlation between having a WR1 and winning championships….granted a lot of that had to do with Mahomes and Brady…. I guess the good thing is we don’t need to decide now (knowing it may cost more next year)….if Dak busts again late this year it makes it easier to move on and keep both Lamb and Parsons.
Thanks for the answer Bob! I agree it would be like trying out your girlfriend before going to the lawyer.
Ultimately, though I’ve been a Dak fan and supporter since that preseason in 2016, I can understand both arguments. The kind of person, leader, face of the organization he is… plus he does produce at a high level I can understand signing him.
But the fact that he cannot produce at a high-level in the highest level of games, I can understand not signing him. Either way, I just want to see the situation resolved.
If things don’t go well this year, and MM and Dak walk, I could see them ending up at the next organization together. Assuming the Jets don’t have a good year, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them there.
Bob, after decades, I have finally moved the Cowboys to the Bravo Channel equivalent of what takes space in my head. I no longer hope for playoff success. Jerry has shown me time and time again that he defines success as growing his own bank account by using the Cowboys as collateral for what ever the next “Blockchaincom” deal is or the next fight, concert, or concession deal is.
I really think he needs to be appreciated for the cartoonish content he brings to the sport. Sign Zeke? Sure! Let key free agents go? You bet! Let your coach and top three players play out a final year? Sign me up! At this point, I want to see him sign Johnny Manzel, Hardy, and any other f-up to the training camp roster and I will make a new batch of popcorn.
What I won’t do is expect a focus on football because that’s not Job 1. Hell, it’s not even Job 5.
McCarthy and Dak have done the best the can with the hand they are dealt, but if they want to reach the mountain top, it won’t be in Dallas and anyone saying different is kidding themselves. Do you really still think that three years of 12-5 validates the Dallas Cowboys front office has a will to win, or is that just going to be air cover for continuing to take the money from the ATM that is the franchise and have them invest is in other places with a higher return?
So well said Eric. Die hard lifelong born and raised in Dallas cowboy fan. The cowgirls are a joke. I honestly thought that when Jerry finally passes the rains to Stephen things would be different but clearly they will not be. Daddy has trained his son well. I can handle not winning it all, but this is just getting absurd.
Bob, is there anyway you can become the Cowboys’ GM? Maybe divorce your wife and merry Charlotte or something. Take one for the team. :-)
: O !!!!!!
As to the husband / wife analogy, looks like the wife (Dak) is looking for a bigger diamond ring from someone - doesn't matter who. If her current husband - OK. But will take other offers.
The husband (Jones) might get tired of the drama and kick wife to the curb and hope it works out with the new GF. (Lance)
Logic dictates that if you are not going to resign your starting QB then unless your backup is starter material there is no point in signing your WR1 to a big contract. At that point you also probably don’t want sign your DE1 to a big contract either because now you are very likely a crummy team and should tear it all down. Unfortunately Jerry and Stephen think they’re the smartest guys in the room who will get their cake and eat it too when in reality they are the stinky turd you just stepped in. It just gets worse every year and with Stephen on deck it will get even more worse AND less entertaining.
Great point Mark, it’s all or nothing. The tent will likely fold if you remove Dak or Cee Dee from the equation. Not a lot of middle ground that makes sense.
Bob: With all the new stuff (new defined as non-Cowboys) since you started Sturmstack, it's nice to have an occasional "old standby". Thanks for another fine piece.
Thank you, Bob! The Cowboys will always be the spine of this operation. No matter what, I know what has made all of this possible.
And to the wife analogy I’d prefer my girlfriend earn my marriage.
What about a 2 wife system? It’s never worked, but maybe you’ll be the first.
I know this is a late reply, so it probably won’t get seen by many. However, in regards to the husband/wife analogy; isn’t this what GB has done twice successfully with Rodgers succeeding Favre and now Love succeeding Rodgers? I know Lance is very much unlikely to be Rodgers or 2nd half of 2023 Love, but in theory the idea is the same, no? Although, I can’t say I think this process would work in Dallas where the coverage of the team dwarfs that of the Packers.
let me work on something in this regard. Thanks for writing it.
"I admit that I have some issues with Micah Parsons that perhaps should be a bigger piece that I write soon. I don’t love that he seems to not produce after Thanksgiving. I don’t love that he seems incredibly distracted from the only thing being the only thing, but I am also a bit old school on that front."
I am happy you wrote this. As someone that follows the team from Omaha, Nebraska, the amount of "it seems like the franchise is frustrated by Micah" rhetoric I have heard on podcasts or in articles lately has piqued my interest. Some of it seems obvious on its face - how he is on pods, for example - but I have to imagine the insiders are hearing a lot more behind the scenes that someone not plugged in isn't hearing at all. Would love to know more.
I better work something up soon.