Cowboys Mailbag Preview Pre-Wk 1: Rams

Our Weekend Tradition Resumes in Earnest As Preseason 2024 Begins for Boys

Sunday

For those of you who are new to SturmStack for the 2024 Cowboys season, August will bring some changes that coincide with the team that pays our bills. The Dallas Cowboys are not the only reason this writing enterprise exists for me, but it is certainly the primary one that makes it all possible. That is why from January to July, we can be many other things, but from August until the season concludes, this place is beholden to make sure that regardless of what else we do (Rangers playoffs, Stars/Mavericks previews, College Football 3 Thoughts on big games), we make sure we hit you with a scheduled FOUR Cowboys pieces every single week.

• On Mondays, you get “the Morning After” essay and review of the game.

• On Tuesdays, it will be our offensive film analysis of the performance.

• On Wednesdays, it is the same treatment for the defensive performance.

• And finally, on the weekend, Friday/Saturday, I offer this mailbag, study, preview, and catch-all Cowboys bag-o-football.

Publishing times will vary and the weekend piece will sometimes drop on Friday Mornings, but also might be an occasional Saturday Morning. So, starting today, you can have that mental expectation of the schedule. When we are in the regular season, we will really preview the game, but for the preseason, it will be more mailbag and roster riffing.

So, with all of that extra info done, here is our August 10th edition:

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When we were out at training camp, I dropped six days of material in succession that rated the roster to start camp. It was a panel of experts and friends and once I collected all our our ballots, we had a ranking of the “Top 60” of the roster before the bullets started flying. You can find all of that here (including all six pieces if you click on the concluding one):

2024 Cowboys roster ranking, 10-1:

There are two things I want to do with this today. The first one is suggested by Dalton.

Dalton Cook

Hey Bob, love this idea. When it wraps up can you share a table of everyone’s rankings? Would be fun to see who got ranked where and the most “controversial” players between you and the others

So, I will tell you that I believe I totaled all of these up using the reverse point-system of fewest points move guys to a ranking and then we just stack up and I write about each guy. However, it is possible I weighted my vote as worth a bit more and maybe even made a subjective tie-breaker a time or two, so if you catch a mistake along the way, I would just remind you that the specific rank is not nearly as important as the relative neighborhood each player lives in.

With that said, here you go. Here is 1-20:

And 21-40, where Mr Dunham tapped out after doing 30 players. Everyone else did not have to do their morning show in California at the ungodly hour of 3:30am, so we will extend a little grace to him:

And the rest of us went all the way to 60:

So, there it is. Near the end, the tie breakers actually took some of us all the way to No. 70, but some important players did not make the top 60.

Chris

Great idea Bob. Thank you! Again. If we're looking just at positions obviously Peat and Rogers are high up on the wish list. God love ya, but I've seen enough of Ball and Wright. The only reason for keeping Wright is if he is a younger, and cheaper, version of Goodwin. Otherwise I've seen what he can't do. No idea why Ball is even on the roster. Having said that, gotta admit I was wrong about Waletzko. I thought he could be a solid RT. Having shoulder problems is not good for an OT. That's what drove Pat Donovan into early retirement. I think Stephen will discover the need to trade for a RB as well as a 1 technique DT. Now whether he will actually look away from his real estate ROI spreadsheets long enough to do something about it is an entirely different conversation.

I think you are right, Chris. The Cowboys final 53 roster will probably have a handful of players who were not on the roster in Oxnard and may not be on the roster until each team submits their final cuts which hits on August 27 this year.

Now, since I spent a lot of time on the practice field, I would like to offer a few thoughts on “names that missed this list that we should be mindful of here in the preseason games. I don’t really want to rank them, but I want to get them on the radar, because at this point, they all need to be on the “in the mix” list to fight for this roster:

10 players not in our top 60 but will be in the final mix:

• Edge Al-Quadin Muhammad - He seems nearly assured to make the squad after the Sam Williams injury, but we still need to see it before he gets his housing. At 29, he is coming off a disaster year that included a PED suspension, but he can help rush the passer and given his modest price tag for 2024, I am confident in saying he is on the squad unless something goes wrong.

• RB Royce Freeman - Partly because the RB room is so thin and partly because they seem to trust veterans quite a bit at certain spots, I think we should consider Freeman a real roster possibility. I am not sure I see it because I don’t think he helps you on special teams much and as a runner he has never been what we thought he would be out of Oregon, but he is very much in the mix here.

• DT Carl Davis - 32-year old Carl Davis is going to play a lot as it stands right now. When he was at Iowa, we figured he would be a starter in this league, but that has never quite materialized. But, we do know that he is a grunt who has spent a decade fighting inside and the idea that he can help take a few hundred snaps of run defense is a cinch. I assume he is nearly a lock for this roster. You can write him in, mostly because, again, they don’t seem to have many other strong choices.

• TE Princeton Fant - The strongest position group on the entire team is the tight end group and I have to admit I thought it was 1-5 with a good player or two missing the cut. Now, I see Fant as the 6th TE, but one who appears to have as good a chance to make this team as a few of those we figured were in front of him. If he can pop in these games, the team might be compelled to find a spot for the undrafted 2023 player who they stashed all year on the practice squad.

• WR Tyron Billy-Johnson - This guy was just an amusing name on the roster sheet a few weeks ago and now everyone is trying to figure out how to find him a spot. At 28, he is hardly a prospect, but to watch him make big catches and run past the secondary in practice every day now has us wondering if they might try to squeeze him in. T-Billy has worked his tail off and he is now on the radar.

• LB Willie Harvey - Born one day after T-Billy, Harvey is another player who they grabbed out of the USFL/UFL (Brandon Aubrey and KaVontae Turpin) and we know that both of those guys are now Top 25 roster players, so they believe in what they see at that level. He was all UFL this year and is a tackling machine and has seen a ton of time so far. Can he crack this group?

• LB Damien Wilson - Honestly, Harvey and Wilson are possibly playing for the same spot, we would think. With that in mind, if there are no major LB injuries, it might be a purely special teams play. Wilson is now 31 and he is trying to make a NFL roster for the 10th year of his career, so we should never count out a trusted veteran at the end of a roster for Mike McCarthy and Mike Zimmer, two guys who love to trust trusted veterans.

• LS Trent Sieg - We didn’t put him in the top 60 because none of us had any idea how to rank a long snapper, but they are carrying a long snapper and Sieg appears unchallenged.

• WR David Durden - This team really likes this guy. Keep an eye on him in these preseason games and make a note of where they use him. After suffering an ACL last year at just the wrong time, we look forward to seeing if he is both a slot and special teams solution. Like many WRs, he pops a lot in the preseason. But, we also know that WRs pop every camp and then still cannot crack the roster because of the nature of the position and roster building at this level.

• WR Jalen Cropper - Almost exactly like Durden in that he is smaller, probably a victim of the numbers game, and a factor nearly every day we see him on the practice field. Yet another Jalen in the WR room, Cropper is a guy you are drawn to and you just wonder how many WRs they can take and how many skill guys under 180 pounds they can carry. But, he can absolutely play.

Michael Strawn

This series is clearly demonstrating what an absolute disaster the 2023 draft was. For a team that struggles in every phase of roster building, completely whiffing on an entire draft is a calamity that has massive long term effects. 2024-2026 is when you're expecting a couple starters and multiple contributors from the 2023 draft and that seems highly unlikely at this point.

I definitely won’t fight you that 2023 is off to a very bad start, Michael. I will also suggest that 2024 will tell that story either way and the ink is far from dry on this class.

That said, I have agreed with you on the current state of affairs in this piece below:

Cowboys 2023 Draft: Underwhelming at best

They must get more and it must start as early as Sunday in Los Angeles. This group needs to produce roster pieces and starters. As it stands right now, it is reasonable to wonder if there is even one quality starter on this list.

The pressure is on and it must improve. Quickly.

Keagan Parham

Man, thinking about Osa leaving makes me sad. He's been solid on the field but spectacular on Sounds of the Sideline.

Yeah, I really like him, but seeing the price of DT’s when they hit their first contract is pretty scary. We know the elite DT’s are going to get $25-30m a year, but we also should be aware of what “ok” DT’s get in free agency. Osa would be in that category and I looked at the list and it is pretty eye-popping.

I used the sliders at OvertheCap.com and searched for the middle-class of DT’s to see what turns up between $10m and $13m per year in APY. Look at these names:

Our old friend Maliek Collins is right there in the middle at $11.5m per year and I would absolutely rate Osa above him. Justin Jones is another. Even if Osa is looking for these deals, do we really think the Cowboys would go 4/$48m on a new deal given how they have resisted paying the very top guys?

I am not sure I see it. However, if you don’t get a deal done with Osa, it is very possible you need multiple DT’s for 2025 because this roster is so thin with long-term options at both the 1T and the 3T in this defense.

Longstreet

Man, our roster from 10 up is not impressive. I hope I am missing something. Anger is our 16th best player? He is awesome but i would trade him for a real running back or another guy who could rush the passer. Can we trade for a new GM?

I will say this as many of you seem to have reached this same conclusion. I would suggest that if you did this with any roster, you will find that after the top 10 guys, it gets rather thin pretty fast. I am not here to tell you the Cowboys have the best roster in the league, but rather the way the cap works, this is not uncommon amongst the contenders. Top-heavy rosters are everywhere and if you were to pick any other team – which I recommend – try it and see what 11-25 looks like for San Francisco, Philadelphia, or even Kansas City to see what they have below the red meat.

Mark C

Did not remember that Steele was getting that kind of money AND signed it coming off an injury. Then this year Jerry is attempting (he will cave as usual) to hold Prescott and Lamb's feet to the fire to perform if they want the big money (which I don't necessarily disagree with but realize I'm out of step with the modern NFL). Hmmmm.

It is a very huge year for Steele to prove he is back and ready to be a high-end tackle again for the Cowboys. Starting in 2025, they can walk away from his deal and not have much dead money to deal with. Steele is absolutely playing for his future here in 2024 and will need to demonstrate that he is high quality or they will be looking for another right tackle very soon. That, of course, is an issue, but that is why we are trying to build quality depth on this OL because 2025 might require a new RG and RT if things break bad.

Tim's Best Friend

Thanks, Bob for a great series. Surprised to see Lamb over Parsons for #1, at Dak at #4 considering the overall importance of a QB, but I can't say you're wrong about either (and no one would probably care if I did; it's not like anyone pays me to write about the Cowboys). While I'm feeling somewhat pessimistic about the 2024 team, it should at least be an interesting season with Dak and McCarthy in the final years of their deals.

I would say this - Lamb over Parsons is too close to call. I took CeeDee over Micah, but for two small reasons that I can be talked out of with one game the other direction, I am sure.

1. I think that Micah has been too quiet in big games and Lamb has been better and seems to always be a factor in every situation. They both are the top objective of any opponent and they both are dominant pieces for sure. I just think that Lamb is the better of the two in this department which is significant, but also not enough to say one is way better than the other.

2. I think Micah has a higher maintenance level than Lamb and I will never prefer that. Again, I am not saying it is a deal-breaker, but Micah is insistent on always letting you know how he feel about everything. I prefer a player like Lamb who goes about his business and you almost never hear from him except with his play (Which I realize is a weird descriptor given his actions the last couple days online), but overall, I think that Lamb is all-business and Micah enjoys being in the media spotlight and if I needed a small tie-breaker, that is mine.

Dak is behind them both because he is not a top 3 QB and while Top 8-10 is still great at that position, Lamb and Parsons are probably Top 3 and definitely Top 5 at their premium positions and that broke my tie.

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As for Sunday in Los Angeles, I am looking hard at the Trey Lance show. I guess they made the trade for August of 2024 and now he has three games to change the narrative about him. Right now, the narrative is basically, they wasted a 4th round pick on a guy who they aren’t going to retain and that pick would have been their best RB on the roster, most likely (I admit I am projecting a bit here).

Is there a scenario where he can play so well in the preseason that it makes the Cowboys consider him as QB1 in 2025? I don’t honestly see it – with the possible exception that Dak Prescott simply wants to be the QB1 in Las Vegas or New York in 2025 and is preparing his Jalen Brunson dismount for end-of-business 2024 already. But, since we have three preseason games where Prescott will not play and Cooper Rush really doesn’t need more than a quarter per game, it is a chance for Trey Lance to get 6-9 quarters of football to prove what he has and I anticipate a lot of our film study will be evaluating what we have seen this coming week.

Beyond that, we do want to see Tyler Guyton, but I don’t think he plays this week given his illness. Also, I assume we won’t get much on the RB battles yet. The first preseason game is probably such that many important pieces will not play at all. So, the objectives for me other than analyzing Trey Lance will be:

• Looking at the offensive line battles - especially the depth.

• How do Mazi Smith and friends hold up inside against a fine running team.

• The LB deployment and battles for jobs.

• The WR and TE groupings and stacks.

• Any scheme clues we get from Mike Zimmer.

But, no complaining here. We have Cowboys football this weekend and I am locked and loaded. Hope you enjoy and I will have some thoughts on Monday before lunch.