FILM ROOM: The Trey Lance Timeline

How did we get to where we are today? Let's look at 20 plays to tell the story

This one is lengthy.

But it pairs well with yesterday’s piece about the Dallas Cowboys acquisition of Trey Lance and what it could all mean. I have my theories and many of you have yours.

But, the first question we have to ask is what caused the 49ers to walk away from a guy they invested so much in, so quickly. San Francisco really must have thought he had no easy way to the QB1 spot in their organization to ship him away for a Day 3 pick. They didn’t want to develop him behind the scenes any longer. They could have kept him as QB3, but instead, they decided that it was over. That should tell us a lot.

So, let’s dig into his small amount of tape and peruse two of his three full games as a pro from 2021 and then the two games in the 2023 preseason where they decided he needed to go. We will pick the five most noteworthy plays – both good and bad – from each of those for a total of 20 plays. This might take a while, so get a comfy seat.

---

1st Career start

At Arizona - October 10, 2021

1Q - 15:00

Reminder: the 3 dots on each video on the far right includes “playback speed” and I recommend you slow down the speed as far as it goes so you can see the details of each play in slow-motion.

This first one is both bad and good.

The bad is turning down an open slant on the first play from scrimmage. The right slot is wide open on the slant and for whatever reason, he doesn’t pull the trigger (I am sure the blitzers are spooking him, but Arizona knows this is his first start and they wish to rattle him immediately).

How do we deal with blitzers? Throw into them where the coverage is soft. This will back them off. But, this trend shows up where he turns down open receivers right in front of him and ends up making things more difficult. Of course, we think that inexperience is the top reason he does this, but the NFL is too tough of a league to turn down open receivers for easy gains. But, there is the good. He tucks it and runs and shows that not only is he fast, he is probably faster than your linebackers. First down. Not bad.

1Q - 12:57 - 2nd and 10

A few plays later, we had this. The lone wideout on the left runs a stop route about 20 yards down the field. You can see the receiver put his hands up because he found an easy opening in the zone and is waiting for the ball.

But, Lance is late.

If you pause it about six seconds into the video, you see that there is a huge area for an easy completion, but Lance doesn’t pull the trigger with any anticipation. And when he does, he sails the throw into an interception. The throw is high and late. We see this plenty. Budda Baker picks it off and heads back the other way.

2Q - 4:00 - 3rd and 11

Third and really long and they want to make Lance throw into a populated secondary and live to tell about it. Well, guess what? He hits Mohamed Sanu right in the hands with a perfect throw…which he drops.

Sometimes, you just can’t buy one and on this day, his mates could have helped him more than they did. Welcome to the NFL kid. But, this is a great throw and it is well done.

Here is that same play from the endzone. Look at that rhythm and velocity. Sanu is a NFL veteran and he should help his QB with this one. Lance cannot catch it for him.

3Q - 7:25 - 2nd and 16

This is 2nd and 16 and you want to get 8-10 yards back to make third down manageable and to get into field goal range. Six seconds in and at the top of his drop, you see #44 wide open at about the 38-yard line in the right flat. If he catches it there, he should easily get another 7 to 8 yards. Instead, Lance doesn’t make a quick decision. And in the NFL, that means you just took a bad sack and made third down impossible.

4Q - 7:56 - 3rd and 4

Ok, last one from the Arizona game. Down 10-7 in the 4th Quarter and it is third and 4. You know the Cardinals are going to blitz him like they did on the first snap of the game. You will have to get the ball out quick. Cover 0 blitz from the corner and you know your hot is to hit the right slot on the slant past the sticks. Throw and catch, right? The throw is high and behind him and not terribly close. You have to hit those in this league.

Let’s try his next game much later in the season. He had a broken finger and it didn’t help his progress in 2021 at all. This is the game that seemed to get the 49ers proclaim that he will be QB1 for the 2022 season. Here are the five plays I pulled because they seemed significant.

2nd Career start

vs Houston - Jan 2, 2022

1Q - 1:35 - 2nd and 9

What makes Trey interesting is the plays where he is bad and still figures it out a bit. He has both slants up top “NFL open” briefly, but instead bails when he doesn’t need to and won’t pull the trigger. Yet, he is able to stay alive and then make a really nice throw on the run past the marker for a 1st down. Great job!

1Q - 0:18 - 1st and 10

This pass is so impressive. Yes, he turns down George Kittle in the flat to take a bigger shot down the field, but then from a twisting platform and a guy in his face, he hits his man out by the sideline and it worked. He looks like he is a different guy than he was back in October. He has developed!

2Q - 9:24 - 1st and 10

Second Quarter and on 1st and 10, Shanahan wants Lance to have a shot at a play-action shot play. It is a clear-out route by the receiver on the left and a TE wheel route down the sideline behind him that looks open. Trouble is, Lance doesn’t look off the coverage and also doesn’t get the trajectory right. He takes the flat throw to Kittle and it gets picked off. I think the next angle below will show that he was too locked in on a play-action throw that is supposed to hide his intentions better.

As my friend JT O’Sullivan will tell you, all you have to do is look at the stripe on his helmet to see that he incorrectly locks into Kittle too early. Look the safety off by keeping your eyes elsewhere and come back to Kittle. This is inexperience on full display.

You learn by playing the position what matters and what doesn’t. It is key that he plays six or eight straight games to figure this out, but urgency and injuries have never allowed this.

4Q - 10:44 - 3rd and 3

This is excellent. 3rd and 3 and Lance knows that the quick out is going to be at the bottom of the screen. His back foot hits and the ball is out before his receiver is out of his break. Right on the number and a first down. Good work.

4Q - 10:06 - 1st and 10

The very next play, the 49ers want a kill shot. Play-action again and now they have a crosser with a deep post where Deebo gets the safety turned and all Lance has to do is drop the ball in a 25-yard box where Samuel can run under it.

Once he does, odds are great that this will be a touchdown. One safety vs Deebo is a mismatch and it is proven as such. This turns a 10-7 lead into a 17-7 lead in one play-action shot. Lance is feeling it now.

I promised 5 plays per game, but this one was too good to ignore. So, a bonus 6th play here:

4Q - 3:58 - 3rd and 12

Third and 12 and Lance is breaking out before our eyes. But, they don’t want to punt the ball back here so they go for it. This is a ridiculous throw and catch to Kittle down the seam. 25 yards on a frozen rope is just beautiful.

End zone view!

I mean, come on. There aren’t many QBs who have this arm strength in their bag. But, these are the natural tools that get you picked at No. 3 overall. Tremendous.

---

Ok. We should jump in here and say he played a full game to start 2022 in a rain storm in Chicago, but in Week 2 broke his ankle. So he had a broken finger, a sprained knee, and a broken ankle in his first two years.

He also had almost no experience and was clearly not ready to play. So, all of this was conspiring against him and while it is difficult to say what is fair and what is not, we should probably not lose sight of how raw he remains because of a lot of things added together. That said, nobody cares. 49ers teammates don’t care, because they want a QB who can help them get to the Super Bowl. If he isn’t ready, that’s not their fault.

So, let’s move to this 2023 preseason where he was hanging on by a thread and was unable to win his team back with the following performances.

---

2023 Preseason Week 1

At Las Vegas

2Q - 11:06

This one is decent as he shows his improv play-making when nobody is even close to open. So, he puts the ball down and then throws a nice pass on the fly to get a 1st down. He can do this.

2Q - 8:37

But, on the very next snap, he can also do this. His man is open but the endzone angle will show you the throw is behind his man and it gets deflected somehow to a teammate for a very unlikely touchdown. Bad throw, bad decision, but great blind luck to still score a touchdown. Great result, but not a great play.

2Q - 6:58

This is what is so doggone frustrating here. He has two deep routes and they are both open. He also has time to make the throw before the rusher gets close to him. But, once he feels that his protection is breaking down, he cannot pull the trigger. Instead, he attempts to escape from guys who are faster than him and runs into a sack.

Get the ball out, my friend.

There is no way to survive in the NFL doing this. The ball must come out.

2Q - 5:42

But, then he does this. Same route we keep seeing work for him. A deep in and the throw is right on the money with an absolute dart. Watch the outside receiver hit the Raiders logo and watch Lance put it right on him in a tight window.

He can do it! He just can’t do it often enough.

2Q - 3:46

Maybe you say, but Lance can handle the running issues. Well, this is 4th down and one yard to go and it is a zone read. They are reading the Raiders edge on the far right. If he dives to the RB down the line, Lance needs to keep it to the right. If he takes the QB, Lance needs to give it to the RB. This is basic stuff. But, here, we see Lance give it and the RB runs into a wall. Look at what Lance would have had! Huge miss here. He definitely would have got one yard. Not great.

So, the next game, he is QB3 and doesn’t get to play before mop-up time.

2023 Preseason Week 2

Vs Denver

4Q - 12:36

You never want to start your outing with an interception on a screen.

Holy heck, Trey, you have to get the ball over the rusher.

Throw it as high as you want and we can blame the right tackle some, but the QB MUST get the ball over the rush. MUST. This is no way to get the trust back.

4Q - 11:05

Next possession, first play. One man is in the route, so unlikely he will turn this one down, but he fires a cannon right to his man out of his break. On time and well placed. These are the moments when you think he can play.

Of course, it is the 4th quarter of a preseason game against (and with) bench warmers, so the pass is dropped. No worries. QB did his job well.

4Q - 7:47

QB draw with an offensive holding on the left guard. But, look at the wheels on this QB. This is why the Cowboys are interested. Huge arm and great wheels. If you want a backup who has a Dak Prescott skill set, this guy might actually have a better set of skills than Dak….aside from the processing.

What we see on the next snap below…

4Q - 7:28

This is so bad that I don’t know what to say.

At no point is this read acceptable for an NFL QB or even a high school QB. The route here is obviously to occupy the middle defenders and that’s it. Once you take those inside zone defenders, then you open up some room for the two outside stops. This TE has no chance to be open as Denver No. 41 is ready to Pick-6 this and he reads it so easily that he actually over-runs it. At no point does this throw have any chance at all.

Why would you throw this?

This tells us Trey is guessing on coverages and has no idea what is actually happening in the secondary. This is also consistent with many other examples. He doesn’t process defenses well and he seems to guess on what the opponent is running. He is used to seeing man-to-man like Tim Tebow used to see. This is normal with dual-threat QBs and when they see zones it short circuits many of them. I am afraid that there are indicators that Lance does not know what he is seeing in real time.

4Q - 7:25

Next play. Look at this one. the read here is the weakside over-route and at 0:08 he is wide open in the middle of the field.

Wide open. Protection is fine. What is he looking at?

Lance finally sees it but it is too late and the throw is broken up. He just doesn’t see the play in front of him. He also hears footsteps in the pocket and it drops his eye level which is another familiar flaw with young and inexperienced QBs.

4Q - 2:38

Finally, I believe this is his final throw as a 49er. Four verticals against middle-field-closed and Lance looks left and that holds the safety. Then he turns to the right and hits the seam for a nice touchdown. The decision has already been made, but he makes a nice throw to finish his run there. Touchdown.

---

Anyone who looks at these four games can see the tools and see the attraction, but they can also see some very poor instincts and processing.

He has not played enough football and would be a perfect candidate for a minor league to go play 20 games and let everything slow down. But, football seldom works that way, especially with a $34 million rookie contract.

Could Dallas unlock him? Maybe. But, I hope you agree that he has a very long ways to go. Consistency and dependability are musts to be a starting QB in this league and he is short on both. Flash plays are a tease and while he produces some of them, they are just too rare right now.

Time to get to work. There is a considerable amount to be done.