As surprising as the Trey Lance trade was, I may be coming around on the logic behind it.
Prescott and Rush are both 30, and Grier is 28; a young, "development" type of QB was needed (and has been for the last 3 years). Lance is 23, so he fits that mold, at a cost that would be reasonable for such a player. His tools (arm strength, wheels) are enticing, and likely gave him a higher upside than what Grier could offer.
Having said that, his processing of defenses is obviously sub-par, but what can you expect from someone who has started so few games against elite competition? Learning to read defenses happens over time, and can be highly dependent on offensive philosophy; will a change in offensive environments (and veterans in Prescott and Rush to learn from) provide different keys for him to look at so that his decision making and consistency can improve? I would also argue that MM's track record with QB development is better than Shanahan's, although I would defer to your more experienced judgement as to which system would more likely facilitate a QB's development.
My biggest concern remains the contractual timelines, with major decisions concerning both Prescott and Lance due simultaneously in the next 2 years. Otherwise, the move seemed to be low risk, given the potential reward.
Hi Bob. Love your writing and the details you put into it. As a matter of fact, I'm a sports writer too! I don't focus on one team, but talk about all the sports. Would you be able to check my posts out? One of your fans told me to check out your sports posts and ask YOU to help me get more subscribers. The only reason I'm asking this is that I'm working super hard, almost every day and while I might be gaining 1 or 2 subs a week, I don't think I deserve that little. All you have do to support is either shout me out or just sub to me. You are a big time inspiration and the work you do is fantastic. (This post may have duplicated.)
I also had trouble with the videos in the app at about halfway through. I had to close the app and go back in a few times, but I was able to watch everything with that simple fix. No biggie.
Bob, how much is this move to put (a very little) pressure on Dak regarding his contract? Before Friday, Dak held all the cards. He could ask for the moon, and Jerry would have to give it. Now, at least in theory, Jerry can say that he has another option to paying Dak a ridiculous max amount. I still think Jerry will pay Dak, and your film breakdown shows that Lance is not much of a threat to take Dak's job, but it is the only idea I have for why Jerry made this move. Plus, add that Jerry did not tell Dak. This just seems like a minor Jerry power play.
As you said, Lance is no threat to Dak anytime soon. I don't see any way at all that his acquisition factors in to Dak's contract situation. The Jones' and the goofballs in the media might suggest it to keep people's gums flapping, but when it comes down to negotiations, Dak's representation will just laugh out loud at the thought.
That being said - as a fan, the best thing in the world would be for him to suddenly put it all together and threaten for a starting job.
Most likely outcome - he possibly gets a few gadget snaps this year. Contends for QB2 and maybe gets some more gadget snaps next year. When his deal is up after the 2024 season, the Cowboys decline the 5th year option and try to sign him for QB2 money or another team outbids them and tries their own reclamation project - giving the Cowboys a comp pick in the process.
That missile to Sanu that is dropped seemed to be VERY wobbly. I don't know what that means... but somehow I'm impressed that he can make a wobbly ball fly like that and disappointed that he didn't throw a tighter ball.
Woof. I don't care to learn about 49ers things so I don't even remember hearing that he had all those injuries BEFORE the ankle that took him down for good. That said, aside from what you've made very clear about processing and consistency, I'm reminded about what you've often said before: 'Sometimes the best ability is availability', and it seems that his health is as questionable as his processing speeds.
Looks to me like Trey makes a lot of the same mistakes Dak STILL makes. It’s just that Dak has learned to make less of them… and more good plays to make up for bad ones (some games, anyway). Some players just never learn to get the ball out quickly enough — a la Brady, Rodgers, et al — and a turnover or sack is too often the result.
Pre-snap, I agree 100%. But Dak is late with throws too often. Record games and watch in slow motion and you’ll see that he misses windows of opportunity way to much. Bob’s column regarding Cooks gives me hope, though, since his separation will create more chances for Dak to complete downfield passes despite reads that are a split second slower than the top QBs.
That’s really hard to say definitively when we don’t know the reads or progressions, something Bob has pointed out many times. It’s also hard to put that on Dak in an offense that had so much freelancing/option routes where the QB and WR have to be on the exact same page. Often times they weren’t, which is part of the reason they moved on from KM. Timing was not a key feature of his offensive scheme.
You’re right about last year’s scheme not really being designed around timing. Not the Aikman-to-Irvin before Irvin even turned around variety, anyway. That will change with this variation on the West Coast offense so we’ll see how it goes.
Bob, you are the best. Do the Cowboys believe they have a better QB development program than the 49ers? The Cowboys adopted virtual reality in 2015 for exactly this purpose.
As always, appreciate the effort. And definitely looking forward to this year's Cowboy postgame analysis. As for the Lance acquisition, did the Cowboys just spend a few million dollars (the difference between QB3 Grier's salary and Lance's salary), best case scenario, to convert a 2024 4th round pick into a 2026 2nd round pick? If not, what is the best case scenario?
Bob: Even "great wheels & a cannon" need development in processing & I don't see the opportunity for that much processing practice for him with the Cowboys in '23. What's your take on the "best possible result" for him & the team?
I know it’s not Dak’s job to help fix a guy, but how much does maybe a culture playing with other higher caliber players help with development vs a room full of guys the staff is praying can be THE guy. Maybe already having that guy in the room can help? Then you have insurance or a flippable piece
Re: Dak, I would add that while it might not be his job to help fix a guy, embracing that role could potentially help him take that next step toward consistently playing well after Thanksgiving. I’ve always thought serving as a teacher/mentor can change one’s perspective in a way that’s beneficial to self-growth if one is open to it.
Bob, I couldn't agree more with your analysis. The flashes are so bright, but (at least from the plays you clipped) it's so apparent he's spooked by pressure and struggles to read the defense. That does seem coachable and fixable with more repetition, but hard to know how he's going to get that.
His accuracy doesn't seem terrible, but he was behind on a few of those throws as you pointed out, and I don't know how "fixable" that is.
All of which makes him seem like a great high upside backup QB for a late round pick, but definitely not worth spending three firsts on! What was SF thinking?!
I am hearing everyone say he needs to play to develop. I get that there is no substitution for real NFL speed experience, but don't they have simulators now that allow QBs to practice reading coverage?
I read just a few years ago about using virtual reality technology. To me this would seem to be an ideal training tool. Put a camera on the QBs helmet that captures every play. It seems it would be invaluable to use both for an experienced quarterback to see what he missed in s game so it could be corrected as well as an inexperienced QB to learn what they will be seeing while not playing.
I couldn’t remember for sure if the story I read was about Dak or not. I never heard it mentioned again. That seems like it would be the ideal way to bring Lance up to speed since he won’t have a chance to get anything but scout team reps this season, barring injuries to Prescott or Rush.
I’m sure Grier will get signed by somebody (Patriots?). I’d almost selfishly like to see him remain unsigned where the Cowboys could add him to the practice squad or call him up in case of the type of injuries that nearly wrecked SF’s season last year.
Great job again Bob. Love your writing and analysis.
As surprising as the Trey Lance trade was, I may be coming around on the logic behind it.
Prescott and Rush are both 30, and Grier is 28; a young, "development" type of QB was needed (and has been for the last 3 years). Lance is 23, so he fits that mold, at a cost that would be reasonable for such a player. His tools (arm strength, wheels) are enticing, and likely gave him a higher upside than what Grier could offer.
Having said that, his processing of defenses is obviously sub-par, but what can you expect from someone who has started so few games against elite competition? Learning to read defenses happens over time, and can be highly dependent on offensive philosophy; will a change in offensive environments (and veterans in Prescott and Rush to learn from) provide different keys for him to look at so that his decision making and consistency can improve? I would also argue that MM's track record with QB development is better than Shanahan's, although I would defer to your more experienced judgement as to which system would more likely facilitate a QB's development.
My biggest concern remains the contractual timelines, with major decisions concerning both Prescott and Lance due simultaneously in the next 2 years. Otherwise, the move seemed to be low risk, given the potential reward.
Trey Lance is jalen hurts preparation
Hey Bob, I am having a problem opening/playing the videos after the 6th/7th video
are you trying this on the email or on chrome? I just viewed them online and they appear to work well.
Hi Bob. Love your writing and the details you put into it. As a matter of fact, I'm a sports writer too! I don't focus on one team, but talk about all the sports. Would you be able to check my posts out? One of your fans told me to check out your sports posts and ask YOU to help me get more subscribers. The only reason I'm asking this is that I'm working super hard, almost every day and while I might be gaining 1 or 2 subs a week, I don't think I deserve that little. All you have do to support is either shout me out or just sub to me. You are a big time inspiration and the work you do is fantastic. (This post may have duplicated.)
Using the Substack app on my iPhone
Great stuff Bob! This is why we’re all here!
I also had trouble with the videos in the app at about halfway through. I had to close the app and go back in a few times, but I was able to watch everything with that simple fix. No biggie.
Bob, how much is this move to put (a very little) pressure on Dak regarding his contract? Before Friday, Dak held all the cards. He could ask for the moon, and Jerry would have to give it. Now, at least in theory, Jerry can say that he has another option to paying Dak a ridiculous max amount. I still think Jerry will pay Dak, and your film breakdown shows that Lance is not much of a threat to take Dak's job, but it is the only idea I have for why Jerry made this move. Plus, add that Jerry did not tell Dak. This just seems like a minor Jerry power play.
As you said, Lance is no threat to Dak anytime soon. I don't see any way at all that his acquisition factors in to Dak's contract situation. The Jones' and the goofballs in the media might suggest it to keep people's gums flapping, but when it comes down to negotiations, Dak's representation will just laugh out loud at the thought.
That being said - as a fan, the best thing in the world would be for him to suddenly put it all together and threaten for a starting job.
Most likely outcome - he possibly gets a few gadget snaps this year. Contends for QB2 and maybe gets some more gadget snaps next year. When his deal is up after the 2024 season, the Cowboys decline the 5th year option and try to sign him for QB2 money or another team outbids them and tries their own reclamation project - giving the Cowboys a comp pick in the process.
That missile to Sanu that is dropped seemed to be VERY wobbly. I don't know what that means... but somehow I'm impressed that he can make a wobbly ball fly like that and disappointed that he didn't throw a tighter ball.
Woof. I don't care to learn about 49ers things so I don't even remember hearing that he had all those injuries BEFORE the ankle that took him down for good. That said, aside from what you've made very clear about processing and consistency, I'm reminded about what you've often said before: 'Sometimes the best ability is availability', and it seems that his health is as questionable as his processing speeds.
This puts a damper on the Lance = QB2 discussion.
Looks to me like Trey makes a lot of the same mistakes Dak STILL makes. It’s just that Dak has learned to make less of them… and more good plays to make up for bad ones (some games, anyway). Some players just never learn to get the ball out quickly enough — a la Brady, Rodgers, et al — and a turnover or sack is too often the result.
You’re in the minority with this opinion. Dak is one of the best in the game at the mental side of things. Pre snap and post snap.
Pre-snap, I agree 100%. But Dak is late with throws too often. Record games and watch in slow motion and you’ll see that he misses windows of opportunity way to much. Bob’s column regarding Cooks gives me hope, though, since his separation will create more chances for Dak to complete downfield passes despite reads that are a split second slower than the top QBs.
That’s really hard to say definitively when we don’t know the reads or progressions, something Bob has pointed out many times. It’s also hard to put that on Dak in an offense that had so much freelancing/option routes where the QB and WR have to be on the exact same page. Often times they weren’t, which is part of the reason they moved on from KM. Timing was not a key feature of his offensive scheme.
You’re right about last year’s scheme not really being designed around timing. Not the Aikman-to-Irvin before Irvin even turned around variety, anyway. That will change with this variation on the West Coast offense so we’ll see how it goes.
Bob, you are the best. Do the Cowboys believe they have a better QB development program than the 49ers? The Cowboys adopted virtual reality in 2015 for exactly this purpose.
Bob, I’m looking forward to your analysis of who they cut or kept and why?
As always, appreciate the effort. And definitely looking forward to this year's Cowboy postgame analysis. As for the Lance acquisition, did the Cowboys just spend a few million dollars (the difference between QB3 Grier's salary and Lance's salary), best case scenario, to convert a 2024 4th round pick into a 2026 2nd round pick? If not, what is the best case scenario?
Bob: Even "great wheels & a cannon" need development in processing & I don't see the opportunity for that much processing practice for him with the Cowboys in '23. What's your take on the "best possible result" for him & the team?
I know it’s not Dak’s job to help fix a guy, but how much does maybe a culture playing with other higher caliber players help with development vs a room full of guys the staff is praying can be THE guy. Maybe already having that guy in the room can help? Then you have insurance or a flippable piece
Re: Dak, I would add that while it might not be his job to help fix a guy, embracing that role could potentially help him take that next step toward consistently playing well after Thanksgiving. I’ve always thought serving as a teacher/mentor can change one’s perspective in a way that’s beneficial to self-growth if one is open to it.
Bob, I couldn't agree more with your analysis. The flashes are so bright, but (at least from the plays you clipped) it's so apparent he's spooked by pressure and struggles to read the defense. That does seem coachable and fixable with more repetition, but hard to know how he's going to get that.
His accuracy doesn't seem terrible, but he was behind on a few of those throws as you pointed out, and I don't know how "fixable" that is.
All of which makes him seem like a great high upside backup QB for a late round pick, but definitely not worth spending three firsts on! What was SF thinking?!
They had a QB1 and could give Trey time to develop. Injuries robbed them of that opportunity so they looked to salvage him now that they have Purdy.
I am hearing everyone say he needs to play to develop. I get that there is no substitution for real NFL speed experience, but don't they have simulators now that allow QBs to practice reading coverage?
I read just a few years ago about using virtual reality technology. To me this would seem to be an ideal training tool. Put a camera on the QBs helmet that captures every play. It seems it would be invaluable to use both for an experienced quarterback to see what he missed in s game so it could be corrected as well as an inexperienced QB to learn what they will be seeing while not playing.
Yes, the Cowboys rolled out VR in 2015. Dak used it to become a franchise QB.
I couldn’t remember for sure if the story I read was about Dak or not. I never heard it mentioned again. That seems like it would be the ideal way to bring Lance up to speed since he won’t have a chance to get anything but scout team reps this season, barring injuries to Prescott or Rush.
I’m sure Grier will get signed by somebody (Patriots?). I’d almost selfishly like to see him remain unsigned where the Cowboys could add him to the practice squad or call him up in case of the type of injuries that nearly wrecked SF’s season last year.