Free Friday Mailbag, September 15th Edition

I am here. Its Friday. Ask me anything.

Ok, our all-new Free Friday Mailbag is back!

We have been up on #SturmStack for about six weeks now and I cannot believe how great this has been. I am so grateful to all of you. We are a rapidly growing stack here and are already running up the Substack leaderboards for both free and paid subscribers. Again, thank you so much for making this happen.

And, if you didn’t know, we are adding a fifth weekly feature to our lineup that will drop sometime between now and tomorrow – The Cowboys Pregame Three Thoughts piece. I had to choose between a mailbag and a Cowboys pregame piece, so we decided to shorten this a bit and give that time saved to the Cowboys pregame piece. So, it won’t be long, but I will give you 1,000-1,200 words on what I am thinking about each Cowboys game. At least that is the current plan.

Now, I want to pitch you free subscribers on moving up a plan:

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And now, with 120 minutes on the clock, let’s answer your questions:

From David Wolf: If Scherzer is going to be out for a while, who should the Rangers use for his spot in the rotation?

Well, sadly, Scherzer is going to be out for a long while. I thought the answer to your question would be Martin Perez and he is a guy that has been frustrating this year but is definitely a competitor who has it in him. I thought that would be the play, but it sure sounds like they are considering their rotation to be: Jon Gray, Jordan Montgomery, Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Heaney, and Dane Dunning. So, Heaney over Perez is their call, it seems. But, Heaney is coming up on a contract clause that is worth watching: He is at 136 innings, which is the 2nd highest number in his career. He signed a 2-year, $25m deal for 2023-24 this past winter. Well, 2024 is a player option for $13m, but if he pitches 150 innings this year that player option moves to $20m. That’s right, he needs 14 more innings to kick another $7m to his pile for 2024 and I think it is fair to say that would be a tough number. Of course, he should get three more starts to get 14 innings. It might be tight. You wonder how much that is visited about.

By the way, it is column-worthy what the Rangers are doing this week. A six-game winning streak and a four-game sweep in Toronto is just amazing given how dead and gone they seemed after the Houston series. Baseball seasons are marathons with infinite plot twists.

From Josh Peterson: I would love to know what an in-season week looks like for you, in terms of time management. I host a sports-talk show as well, but in a smaller market, and I'm not putting out 3-5 pieces a week on Substack. That said, I am a marathoner, do some play-by-play, etc. So I'm often trying to figure out where to find free time to mix in with show prep, running, game prep, etc.

I get asked about this quite a bit. It’s either flattering, demonstrates people wonder about me or think I should probably take better care of myself. Look, I have said this a number of times – I am a lucky man. I know that. I have an unreal task in life of sharing my love of sports for a living. I was given a passion for something at an early age and now all I have to do is share it with an audience for a career. Doesn’t that sound too good to be true? I think so. I tell people this a lot, but let me do it again: I had the impression that my dad never liked his job, but he worked at it for 42 years before he could retire because that is what dad’s do. They provide and it doesn’t require that they have fun doing it, because that doesn’t matter.

You “put food on the table and keep the lights on,” but your enjoyment is sold separately. I am guessing that this influenced me as a boy to pursue a career that sounded like something that you looked forward to and football and sports was always that. Could I find a career where I go to games, study them, and tell people about the stories? Because, if I could, it would be work, but never feel like work.

That said, during football season I do work many 15-plus hour days. Most normal days in season contain no place to watch a television show, read a magazine, or just do nothing for more than a few minutes. I believe I am changing this after this season and eliminating everything from my employment situation except the Hardline and #SturmStack and that should allow a much different existence. But, from 2016 until the end of 2023 while I have been on #TeamAikman during the NFL season, my schedule has been like the template I have below from Monday Morning through Saturday Noon:

So, roughly, my writing for this site is Monday through Wednesday from 7 am to 10 am for the three different Cowboys pieces you get every week. The Mailbag gets written either Thursday Night or Friday Morning and I fit the others where they fit and if they fit, but I want to make more time for this soon. Unfortunately, I have committed to my other jobs for now, but that changes when this NFL season ends.

Anyway, back to a normal week: From 10-11:30, I work out (peloton, yoga, back management), shower, and do things that need to be done – like pay bills and run a quick errand. Then my Aikman job gets 11:30-1:30 every day from Monday through Wednesday. We use those hours plus two more windows on Friday and Saturday to get his game done for the following Monday Night. So, this week I am doing Tampa Bay and Philadelphia for Monday, Week 3. When I get done, it will be time to get on Week 4. Rinse and repeat.

The Hardline is my main gig and what makes everything else in my life possible. People wonder about preparations for that and what makes this great is writing is often my show prep and so is most of what I do for my other jobs. Since we talk football nonstop, this all overlaps. We talk throughout the day and prepare for the show and then by 2pm we are all up there finishing our plans and, of course, doing the show from 3-7pm.

As you can see, Thursday is golf day. You may think it is silly to rope off a day and declare it as such, but I have found that with my life, I literally have to declare a day and time to be non negotiable (unless it rains) and that is how I make sure I don’t quit golf during the season. I need that time, or so I tell myself. So, we call Thursday morning my weekend. Friday is wifey time to go get brunch and cool out for 3-4 hours every week and try to not fidget much there, too. Reintroduce ourselves to each-other and again, it is a good habit to have designated days and times for her that is normally Friday morning, Friday night and Saturday night are often date nights and such, but, times will vary. Weekends are reserved for my kids and such, but yes, the games start again, so you can see where triple headers of college football followed by triple headers of pro football collide with trips to Texas A&M, Oklahoma State, and also my youngest sons trips playing soccer that can be four hour drives in any direction you can dream up from DFW.

How do I do it? I have no idea. You eat an elephant a tiny bite at a time, I guess. You just do it. Many of you have similar schedules and we shrug and say it is what it is. Lawyers and doctors and other involved careers require 7 am to 7 pm life, so nobody feels sorry for some sports guy trying to watch too many games. Since I am told a million people would swap careers with me in a heart beat, I gladly enjoy this blessed life I live and make time for my family to assure them where they rank in all of this.

Free time? Well, we catch up on TV in the offseason.

From Ross Andrew Simons: In the article you linked earlier about splash plays, you mentioned that people looked at you funny when you mentioned the metric. Do you think people have come around on splash plays (at least as a concept) in the 5 years since? Are there any other unique ways you l assess the game that you feel others should pay attention to? For me, I’ve been surprised by the lack of usage of Toxic Differential to assess overall team quality. I feel that it’s even more relevant now with the increased emphasis on gaining big plays or preventing them. Toxic Differential is a metric that evaluates teams on BOTH their net turnover differential and also their net big play differential (passes of 25+ yards and rushes of 10+ yards.) It’s designed to show you not only which teams succeed in getting turnovers while minimizing their own, but also teams that outpace their opponents in big plays.

Yes, I do believe it has caught on. When I worked at the Athletic, many writers started charting them for their teams, too. TruMedia built an automated tracker for me, so I could track the entire league and I will share that with you as we go this season. I love Toxic Differential quite a bit. It basically goes like this: (Number of takeaways + Number of explosive runs + number of explosive passes) - (Number of turnovers + number of explosive runs allowed + number of explosive passes allowed) = Toxic Differential.

It isn’t perfect, but it originated because coaches have often claimed that turnover differential is the truest decider of games – which I generally agree because the stats do. But, a new wave of coaches said, no it is actually big play differentials. Whoever has more than their opponent gets in a game usually wins. And those numbers were convincing, too. But, nobody can agree on explosive play specifics; you said passes of 25+ and runs of 10+. I like 20+ yard plays of any kind. Aikman prefers 10+ yards for runs and 20+ yards for passes. Is there a place that keeps them for each game or do you keep them by hand, Ross? Also, sacks and penalties seem to blur the truth, but I like it. I’m not sure an explosive is the same value of a turnover, but this is a great thought. I want to learn more.

From Chuck: on your deathbed, you have time to play ONE Pearl Jam song. Which song do you pick? I think I'm going with Given to Fly. Curious what you'd think.

This is a great question from yesterdays review of the Pearl Jam show I am still buzzing about and I want to put some thought into it. Pearl Jam definitely has a huge selection of songs that are meaningful to me, so there is probably no right answer and I am guessing I will disagree with myself by the time I give this a re-read here in an hour as I type this. But, for this moment in time, allow me to offer you my six finalists for the one PJ song I would listen to at the end of my listening time on this planet:

Better Man: The opening guitar makes me so happy. I know the song is a real bummer when you boil it down, but listening to Eddie work his way through this melody is beautiful. Then, the live versions feature just a beautiful sing-a-long and it the pacing can go to amazingly slow or sped up. It all works. I love this song so much.

Elderly Woman Behind the Counter in a Small Town: This is another one I love so much and I think it speaks to the amazing song writing of these guys. The lyrics show me that this sort of art can come from anything and then the artist can make it special to you and maybe you aren’t even sure why. Again, the communal singing is everything to me on these, it appears, because this is so perfect when the arena is joining in.

Present Tense: This is one of those ear worms that make you want to put it on loop. McCready’s guitar playing here makes me want to sit on the patio with a fire and just chill with it at night. The lyrics are great, too. Just live in the now, man.

Given To Fly: I hope you don’t mind me sharing your selection, but any PJ fan who doesn’t love this song would be worth asking about that. I think it is a perfect marriage between the sound of a song and the lyrics blending. The guitar is basically telling you the lyrics are about flying over majestic cliffs over an ocean and the freedom that goes with that. At least, I think so.

Alive: This one would be a weird one to listen to on my death bed for some obvious reasons, but my reasoning for this one was it was probably the first song from this band that became meaningful to me. Honestly, the lyrics are the lyrics and it probably makes this seem like a odd answer from me, but it isn’t about a story resonating rather I just think the song itself is what Pearl Jam has always sounded like to me. That might make no sense, but it would be the first time one of their songs got stuck in my soul.

Corduroy: I mean, come on. Its Corduroy. Try not to smile as the first 30 seconds just fills you with joy. I assume I don’t have to explain this one.

So, you asked for one at the top of the pinnacle and I gave you my six finalists and would say you can pick any of them for me and I will say its the best. And yes, there are 10 more that will make this list if you ask me again in a week. I hope this was a decent answer.

From Sandy: If there was one other NFL writer to follow that writer would be....?

I love the following NFL writers: Mike Sando, Ted Nguyen, Doug Farrer, Bill Barnwell, Mina Kimes, Kevin Clark, Aaron Schatz, Matt Bowen, Daniel Jeremiah, and will read anything someone sends me from them. As you might notice, most of those are writers who focus on either Xs and Os or statistical/analytical trends in the sport. Very few are on beats or asking questions at press conferences. That stuff doesn’t interest me that much, to be honest, even though I know it is needed out there by others.

You might also notice I didn’t give you just one, because there are too many choices. I am sure I forgot others who are great, too.

From mike mcg: what about packers conversation and commentary now that you are a free agent?

Mike, I have been asked this several times from well meaning Cheeseheads, but I don’t think I can make it happen often. I have references and stories and there might be a time soon to do a column on a topic that strikes me, but for the most part, I cannot cover the Packers, nor would I want to. That sounds like work and I like having a casual and fun relationship with them that is mostly trolling Bears and Vikings fans.

From Matthew Khor Cris Collinsworth talked a little bit during the broadcast about Joe Montana and how the west coast offense was something you couldn't defend against in those days. Are there any West coast concepts you saw or didn't see on Sunday that you think could be successful for the Cowboys given their personnel?

Matthew, it is tough to drill down and get too specific. Especially with that particular Giants game that did not give us much to work with. It was a blowout and the game was in the rain. I don’t think we saw much. The one thing I did notice is that Dak Prescott got the ball out very quickly and on time. He averages about 2.7 in his career and the ball was out in about 2.3 in this game. That might be tied to the new focus on timing and matching footwork of the QB to the pass routes or it might be his desire to not let the blitz trouble his offensive line with a starter missing. We will need to see much more material to know for sure.

From Walter Sharpless: Since it looked like the Giants might have run on the Cowboys all day, what do you see that can be done, scheme or personnel, to improve run defense?

I have a wild thought that I cannot stop thinking about that I need to write about soon, because I get asked this a lot and I kind of think the conversation is misguided by the public and the media. We all cannot understand why the Cowboys are spending so much on stopping the pass and seemingly being negligent about stopping the run. By the way, this is going on everywhere in the league in somewhat similar fashion.

Twenty cities or more are wondering why we aren’t better at stopping the run and why nobody is fixing it. And I think I know the answer, but better wait until I can fully hash it out before I try to sell you on it, Walter. But, here is the short version: I think NFL defenses are baiting teams into running more. It is all subterfuge. They want you to see them as weak against the run so that you take the bait and run it. Why? Because if you run it, you aren’t passing it. And if you aren’t passing it, you aren’t using your sharpest weapon that cuts the deepest and best. I really think Dan Quinn hopes you try to run it because you will be playing into his hands. More on this sometime soon.

From Brad C: Will Micah play any real snaps at traditional LB this season? Seems like with the legitimate secondary and deep D-line depth it will be hard for teams to have sustained passing success on the Cowboys and imagine a lot of teams game plan will be to try and run it down our throats. Seems like adding our fastest most dynamic playmaker to shore up a possible hole in the defense. Can the Lion feed on RBs just like QBs?

This is a similar conversation to what we had above. Yes, I do think Micah can be used in doses and moved around. You may recall they played him at LB vs Green Bay last year when they saw Green Bay wanted to just run it all day. But, 90%+ is Micah on the edge changing games like only he can.

From Marcus Tettleton Hey Bob! Later this year when Dallas plays Buffalo, barring injury, we’ll get to see the Diggs brothers line up against each other. Have there ever been a set of brothers where one literally defended the other? Every set of brothers I can think of (Manning, Bosa, Watt Gronkowski) either played the same positions or the same side of the ball. And does Stefan have a huge edge going against Trevon?

You are right, this one is rare. Actually covering each other will be a very seldom situation because most brothers are on the same side of the ball. So, here is my list of brother vs brother with one on offense and one on defense so they might cross paths a bit in the last few decades that I can think of: Ronde and Tiki Barber, Martellus and Michael Bennett, Chris and Kyle Long, Derek Watt vs either JJ or TJ Watt and Vernon and Vontae Davis. I assume they have all played where they are on the field for the same play against each-other, but Diggs vs Diggs should be actual 1v1 which is very cool.

From derland: I heard the last time a team led the league in turnovers 3 years in a row was the 1970's Steelers. What do you think is the odds for Dallas doing it again this year? Odds they finish in top 3 in turnovers this year?

They usually say that this is sort of not something that carries over from year to year that much, but the team that led the league in takeaways in 2021 and 2022 have not really lost anyone significant, but added Stephon Gilmore who is a takeaway magnet. Top 3? Yes, I am willing to bet they can get top 3. This is a big play defense that makes big plays. It is a pleasure to watch them do their work these days.