30 Comments

Athletic 2, huh? Interesting....

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Athle2ic

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Or was it: 2 Athletic!…

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Fair enough. I’m just tired of watching Dak hit three great shots to put them in position to birdie the long par 5 that is the season, only to putt the ball off the green into a bunker in the divisional round.

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Heh....pretty well capture it!

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I get the QB market, but it’s unbelievably frustrating to hear that the Cowboys have no choice but to give Dak a $60 million/year extension. I also get you can’t win without a QB1, but if your QB1 has demonstrated that he’ll go belly-up in the divisional round whenever he gets there, is he really QB1? I don’t know what the solution is to the current contract situation, since Rush and Lance aren’t going to get anyone excited. Just seems like committing 5 years and $300 million to Dak and hoping next year will be unlike every year before is tough to swallow.

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Feb 24·edited Feb 24Author

I hear you and everyone, but I keep coming back to this. Last 3 years: Dak is 4th in wins, 3rd in Touchdowns, 5th in QBR, 6th in yards, and 3rd in completion percentage so it is very difficult to suggest you can upgrade. But, you can downgrade very easily. I just don't think we can use one game a year and act like the 50 games over this stretch mean nothing. I realize the issues, but claiming he doesn't rank as a Top 10 QB in a 64-QB league is categorically untrue. If that is agreed upon, then figuring out how to continue to get on the green and hope the putt falls is all you can do when he is just 30 years old.

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This is where I'm at. I mean, I've seen other teams successfully figure out how to transition from a QB they didn't want (Eagles, Rams) but I don't have much faith this FO could navigate those waters.

And I agree keeping Dak is probably better than not keeping Dak. But man, his playoffs performances...he literally looks like a deer in the head lights. Dak was 2nd in MVP voting this year and for the 3rd consecutive season came up incredibly small in the playoffs. There's not a lot of reason to believe that will change moving forward.

Which puts me in a purgatory state with my favorite team...they're fun, and competitive and provide a lot of good things Sept to November. But when the stakes count they ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS crap the bed. Great teams rise to increased competition...I won't believe Dak and this version ever will until they prove me wrong.

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Unless your QB is top-5, one’s team is not winning the Super Bowl if their 6-10 QB is taking up 20%+ of the cap. The Kirk Cousins and Dak Prescotts of the League are not elite (while very good) and cannot overcome the lack of depth or talent their own contract causes.

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I don't think it's as black and white as that. I mean, Matthew Stafford won while taking up a huge part of the Rams salcap. Hurts and Matt Ryan came within a single play.

I feel like playoffs are much more luck-based than most fans want to admit. MOst of the games come down to one play and so fumble luck, a bounce, a ref call decides.

So you want to be in the tournament and take your shot year after year. Dallas is THERE but the team always plays like crap when the big games comes up. But I could easily see a Lamar Jackson, Burrow, Goff, Lawrence, Hurts, Dak winning a Super Bowl.

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1: Mahomes

2-4: Allen, Burrow, Jackson

5-10(/13): Herbert, Prescott, Hurts, Stroud, Lawrence, Goff/Stafford/Cousins/Rodgers

The cap hit in Stafford’s 2021-22 SB victory season was $20mil and the cap was $183mil (11%). Plus, the 2021 cap was a contemporary low because of COVID. All this to say, Stafford wasn’t cheap, but he was far from eating 20%+ of the Rams’ cap. They had plenty of money to trade picks for proven vets (Stafford included) that put them over the top.

The cap hit for Matt Ryan’s SB-losing 2016-17 season (albeit MVP season) was $15.7mil with a $155mil salary cap (10% — still plenty of money to go around).

The cap hit for Jalen Hurts’ SB-losing 2022-23 season was $1.2mil with a $208mil salary cap (.5% — TRUCKS of money to go around).

QB salary absolutely matters. If your QB is overpaid and loses to rookie-deal competition (e.g. Purdy and Love) in consecutive years, you are not close. You are stuck in neutral.

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Do we question Lamar Jackson's playoff record, too? Or do we say - no, he is too good to worry about one game a year when they play 18-20?

Again, I am not in love with Dak, but I do not think there is a better option.

Further, I do not believe the percentage of the cap matters for QBs and have written about this at great length. In other words with a $255m cap, you can spend $55 on a QB and build a contender easily with $200m.

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Thank you on Lamar Jackson. I want to see Dak have the opportunity to play a playoff game where the defense isn't imploding and he doesn't have to be perfect, and the pressure that goes with that, to win.

Getting worse at QB in this league is not a good solution

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Building from scratch, I agree a 20% cap hit with a very good to borderline great QB is do-able. But this Dallas Team has existing contract baggage (like all teams do), which makes it very difficult to win when a very-good / borderline great (but not elite) QB is eating up that much cap.

Dallas contract baggage: Bad contracts like Gallup, oft-injured contracts (LVE & any O-lineman not named Tyler Smith — especially Tyron Smith), unfortunate season-ending injury contracts like Diggs, and underperforming contracts like Steele.

Heck, when all you have are Damone Clark and safeties playing LB because another undersized (& rookie) LB (Overshown) suffered a season-ending injury and you had no money to fix it, QB salary was already a problem at 11%. Prescott’s commanding 23% cap hit this coming season (as it currently stands) is not going to make it any easier when Brinks Trucks are also honking at the Lamb and Parsons residences in ‘25/26. And we still need to address the Sturm shopping list for ‘24!

As for Lamar Jackson, he is a 2-time & reigning NFL MVP. He makes 1 of 1 plays of which Prescott can only dream. Like Prescott, he has not played his best football in the playoffs, but Jackson has taken his team to an AFC Conference Championship appearance in the Mahomes Era, losing a one-possession game to the great Mahomes (to which there is no shame — ask Josh Allen). As much as I want Prescott to succeed, I liken my chances with Jackson more (and I think even through failure, it was evident Jackson was better and will continue to be better). If anything, Josh Allen profiles closer to Prescott with only one Conference Championship appearance, a second-place MVP finish (both in 2020-21), and issues with turnovers (as controversial as it is).

On the subject of luck, if Zay Flowers doesn’t fumble at the goal line, maybe Jackson settles in and the score forces the KC defense into more appealing looks in the 4th QTR. And so it goes.

Either way, Jackson’s 10% 2023 cap hit allowed the Ravens to have a roster deep enough to persist past TE and RB injuries & trade for/pay Roquan Smith. Jackson is owed $32mil this upcoming season (12%), $43mil in 2025 and then $74mil in 26/27.

With the cap growing, I get the point of ‘the sooner the better’ to lock up a top-10 QB, because Jackson is a steal through 2025. However, I just don’t think spending 20% of your cap (even if it is market value) to a very-good (to borderline great) QB will result in a championship-caliber team, especially when that QB has proven multiple times he is not elite. At this point, Prescott’s lack of personal hardware and lack of Conference Championship appearances has proven he is not elite. Any team lining up for Prescott is signing up for the same.

And as much as I WANT Prescott to win, I just don’t see him outdueling a superior AFC counterpart (Mahomes, Allen, Burrow and Jackson) even if DAL somehow gets to and through the Conference Championship barrier. It would take superior team talent, which Prescott’s contract would likely prevent.

And if Prescott is making MORE money than those ELITE QBs (which timing is on Prescott’s side), the margin of error on his teammates’ contracts has to be so razor-thin, it’s already shown to be unlikely.

I appreciate and respect the retorts, but I still believe QB salary does matter for an overwhelming majority of NFL Teams, of which Dallas is currently no exception.

Is there a better QB option available? No, you are right Bob. But, some teams had a chance to make BAL eat a poison pill last year and didn’t (even if it meant mortgaging this past season). Did the Cowboys have the cap last year to do it…absolutely not ($108mil dead cap Prescott hit). And any trade now including Prescott (Bears, Broncos, Patriots…) is extremely unlikely and would just jump-start a full rebuild.

I think the prudent decision (especially with the cap bump) is to just run it back with a team as close as possible to last year’s without restructuring Prescott’s deal. Let him lift the team if he’s elite (which to me equals a Conference Championship appearance) or go into a semi-rebuild mode in ‘25 if the team falls short. As much as one would think Jerry would NEVER do this, I think this is what Jerry had in mind when signing Trey Lance.

DAL could exercise Lance’s 5th-year option for 2025 at the $22.4mil cost as insurance for Prescott’s performance. I understand Bob’s point that it’s odd DAL got him in the first place because giving him a 5th year complicates the ‘25 cap if Prescott succeeds in the playoffs because Lance’s dead cap hit is also $22mil, which means a minimum of $82+mil (28% if cap is $285mil) on just QBs. Of course DAL could structure Prescott’s deal so the cap hit is bigger in ‘26/27, but if Prescott succeeds in ‘24…

1) …would Prescott just sign elsewhere as a UFA because DAL exercised the 5th year for Lance (and in so doing broke trust)?

2) …could DAL trade an unknown quantity in Lance for a late-round pick if Prescott succeeds and re-signs?

If Prescott falls short in ‘24 and Lance plays great on a prove-it ‘25 contract, you still are paying Lance $60mil/season starting in ‘26, right?

I get it Bob! Lance makes no sense, especially if you believe in Prescott. But man, when we follow the money, Dallas is not set up to reset the ‘QB-clock’ no matter how the QB position plays out. A huge bummer and likely more years in the wilderness. The more I follow the money from the front office POV, the more it is Prescott or bust.

So I guess, Michael (and Clint Eastwood) may be on to something: do you feel lucky?

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Bob: This was just like Christmas morning when I was a kid. I opened my computer & there was not 1, but actually 2 SubStack pieces. My cup "runneth over", in Biblical language. Both pieces were well worth the reading time; but that's not unusual. I've never seen anything less than excellent less than excellent that you're written. Thanks again.

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Sitting here in my car reading this while the GF is in Joann’s. Gotta admit I teared up, again, watching the Ranger’s Josh Sborz last out video. As someone that moved here and started going to Rangers games in 1972, it never gets old!

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Feb 24·edited Feb 24

First the Modano vid then the final pitch of the Rangers World Series win....Bob getting all my feels today.

I would be up for rewatching old Cowboys games. Lord knows I've seen enough on YT. I do think it will be eye opening for many bc:

1. Players were much smaller and slower and yet the game was waaaay more physical and the rules allowed players to really punish each other

2. Even those great Cowboys teams sometimes made you go WTF? They weren't the unstoppable, perfect machines we sometimes remember.

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Bob, it’s great news that Jamey is joining Substack. I was reading the comments on a Rangers story on TA this week when someone mentioned in a somewhat vague way that Jamey was leaving.

When I first got my TA subscription it was strictly because of youl. It took me a good while before I started exploring more of their writers. I had become so disillusioned with the Rangers for a while that I wasn’t really looking for anything more than I got from Evan Grant on my Sports Day app. It didn’t help that our with to YouTube TV left me me without any RSN coverage.

Then just as I started discovering Jamey and Levi they were gone from the Rangers beat, just in time for the best season in team history. Jamey’s occasional offerings down the stretch and into the playoffs were great, but I wanted more. Now if you could get Tim Cato to bring his Mavericks writing over, we could have The Athletic 3 with maybe even a DFW combo subscription. Ii have been waiting for my TA subscription to expire since you left, and it’s about up now. So with Jamey here now, it’s time to say adios.

The idea of having a a subscriber meetup sounds exciting. Might I suggest that if you do that, you schedule it somewhere in the Mid-Cities. I live 100 miles west of Fort Worth, and I’m sure you have other readers who live out in the sticks. I’m sure a more central location would be helpful for many of us. You might at some point even want to think about a Sturmstack caravan out to the country at a time that didn’t conflict with your radio gig.

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Josh does fine, but man that Modano video had me also missing Ralphy. Growing up in Dallas and getting exposed to hockey in high school, I have him and Gary Thorne as my hockey voices in my head.

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D'Athletic

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Bob, I’m honored that you chose me to bat lead off! Thank you!

I agree with your basic premise on Wyatt Langford. Essentially, he can take the place of Mitch Garver and the rest of the crew to become the primary DH. He is essentially a fourth outfielder with stronger batting skills than fielding skills. I think the primary outfield alignment should be Carter in left, Tavares in Center, and Garcia in Right, with Langford the DH.

Langford can be the fourth outfielder and occasionally give the other guys a day off in the field. When Garcia needs a day off, Langford fits right into right field. When Carter needs a day off, Langford can play left. When Tavaris needs a day off, Carter can slide from left to center and let Langford play in left.

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On the note of a SturmStack meetup, would people be interested in a Discord server for subscribers here to facilitate more interaction and potentially schedule regional meetups, as well as connect on other interests (sports outside of football, hobbies, etc.)?

Bob can be as involved or not involved as he'd like (if he sees this) since I understand managing interactions here on Substack as well as on another platform could be detrimental to the content creation here.

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I'd be interested but don't know crap about Discord so would need some guidance.

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For sure - I can get something setup and keep everyone posted if it's something that enough people are interested in.

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Feb 24·edited Feb 24

Free agency isn't about what a player has, or hasn't, accomplished. If you have a piece of artwork that you think is worth $1 million, that doesn't mean it is actually valued at that price until it goes on the open market. If a bidder comes along and is willing to pay $5 million, that is what the artwork is actually worth regardless of how you feel about it. QB is, arguably, the most valuable position in all of sports. An elite QB can elevate a team unlike any other position. So the position is ridiculously over valued. Dak is top 10 easily, I think more like 6-7th. Personally if I were running the team I would seriously consider offering Micah Parsons up for the top pick to draft which ever QB Will McClay said was the next franchise QB, take a step back in 2024, let Dak play out his contract and come out blazing in 2025. But that's me.

Bob I would LOVE a game-by-game recap of the 1977 season. I've been part of the game trading community for 25 years. I hate that the networks recorded over so many NFL games from the 60s and 70s. I would cheerfully pay to see the Sea of Hands game, or Dolphins/Chiefs double OT playoff game or the Immaculate Reception game or, my all time Holy Grail, Cowboys game the 1972 Cowboys/49ers game where Staubach brings them back from 28-13 in the 4th quarter. I still think that game is out there somewhere. I thought I had a line on it once but to no avail. If the games were out there, can you imagine doing a recap of the Packers 1966 or 1967 seasons? Geez that would be fun.

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Interesting you mention the Immaculate Reception game. I have long contended that game has overshadowed one of the greatest NFL playoff games ever, that took place the very same day. That was the game Roger Staubach became Captain Comeback by replacing a very ineffective Craig Morton and leading the Cowboys to a comeback over the 49ers in SF, overcoming a 15-point 4th qtr deficit.

That game was highly entertaining (opening KO returned for a TD!) and was a fun, exciting back and forth affair.

The Immaculate Reception game, by contrast, was an utterly dull and forgettable affair except for two plays: Stabler's 38-yard scramble for a TD and then the crazy pass play to end the game.

Trust me...watching the entirety of that game will not be much fun. Choose the Staubach comeback instead!

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No argument. I'm old enough I actually remember watching both games as a kid. The Steelers/Raiders game was the epitome of defensive struggle and sometimes tough to watch. Not so with Cowboys/49ers. I was not a Morton fan so when Staubach came in I just knew Dallas would win. I remember getting into a small argument with my dad about whether Fritsch was offside on his onside kick. Great game. Wish we could see it again.

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