Friday Free Mailbag - October 13 Edition

This week we are going to focus on one main question, but it's a big one.

Today, we offer another free-for-all mailbag. Most of them answer many questions and wander in many directions.

Because we have to remain fluid, we do know that the American League Championship Series is going to occupy the Cowboys bye week like you wouldn’t believe.

Texas vs Houston with a chance to go to the World Series?

Wow, the script writers have done a wonderful job filling our October with some beautiful stress.

This is a pro-Rangers publication. I hope our Astros fans who are with us, because they love the Cowboys coverage, can understand our provincial set-up.

I am not sure how well I can make it happen, but like every playoff game so far, I plan on writing about each game of the ALCS – although there may be some delays since on Monday we have a Rangers-Cowboys doubleheader.

That said, this city is more interested in this once-in-a-generation matchup of two Texas teams meeting for the American League crown over the next 10 magical days, so the Cowboys coverage will still exist, but might take a brief backseat.

What a magical time for this area.

I cannot begin to wonder how this series will go, but I have incredible fear/respect for Houston and their organization.

To be the best you have to beat the best, so here is your big chance, Rangers. Make them respect you.

As our Jedi Master told us, “Vader, you must confront Vader. Then, only then, a Jedi will you be.”

Well said. Rangers in 7.

I hope. Please.

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Ok, now on to our promised path for today.

This week we have spent an enormous amount of time sifting through the rubble of the 42-10 debacle at the hands of the 49ers. During the Monday Morning After, I offered some phrasing that caught the eyes of many of our readers:

My belief after last year’s playoff game is the same as it is this morning – I would slam the brakes on any talk of a contract extension at this point and ponder the wisdom of a Prescott-era off ramp based on what we see in the remainder of this season.

It was just a small note in a much larger essay, but John’s reply quickly moved to the top reply because so many readers kept agreeing with him.

Fair. I throw out the idea of a world without Dak Prescott in a single sentence, I should be willing to elaborate a bit.

Most people know how I feel about the Cowboys QB. In general, I like him and want to see this work. We spent an entire essay on him in August and there probably isn’t a human we have written about more over the years – at least since Mr. Romo left for the broadcast booth.

The best answer involves not finding an off-ramp. The best answer is that the Cowboys and Prescott figure things out. the team climbs high mountains in January with a guy who has fought valiantly for the uniform for his entire career.

That is what we hope for. He’s been good enough, even thought faith waivers in the face of repeated beatdowns at the hands of the 49ers — that should probably not be the only perception of him that is considered.

This isn’t about those games. This is about what happens if he continues to spiral as you could argue has has over the last few years. The peak of Dak’s run was probably 2018-2020, which sadly ended with the broken ankle in Week 5 of that COVID season. During that stretch the Cowboys as a team were lesser, but I thought their QB was worth defending because he was clearly building and leading and improving. Here are the profootballreference.com numbers for 2018-20:

Then, the ankle broke, the contract was secured, and the bar raised, dramatically. But, the defense improved, Dan Quinn was hired, Micah Parsons was drafted, and I think the view switched from the “QB is one of the best parts of this team” to “maybe the QB is holding this team back now” by the masses.

Here are those same stats since the contract/injury/defense:

As you can see, the stats are a lot more similar than you might expect. The record is better – the defense has gone from a huge negative to a huge position – but the raw yardage is down per attempt and per game. More touchdowns by percentage and more interceptions, too. But not as much a regression as you might think – post injury/contract.

Not listed in these numbers is that Dak’s dual-threat dried up.

“Before” he was 19 yards a game at 5 yards a carry and about 5 touchdowns a season. “After” the running stopped. 3.6 yards per carry, 11 yards a game, and two touchdowns in three seasons, total.

If you are losing 34 yards passing per game and not running at all while the interceptions are rising… the margins become tighter.

Dak goes from being the fourth highest QBR player in the league before the injury and contract to the ninth after. This causes the consternation that happens when the overall team improves, but isn’t getting the same impact from its highest paid player.

Funny thing is that he is still very good compared to the rest of the league. He is still a top-10 QB by most independent evaluations that aren’t lost in the sauce of the 10,000 days in the wilderness narratives.

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His critics are excited that “Bob has done a 180 on Dak and now agrees with me after disagreeing for years.”

I don’t think that is true.

I think we evaluate new information as it becomes available and it would be difficult to ignore the evidence that has rolled in since the major injury, the massive contract, and the evolution of the game that has decided to eliminate the threat of him using his feet.

Honestly, now more than ever, he appears to be hearing the noise, feeling the stress, and perhaps the pressure of the job that is causing him to be a lesser version of himself. This is leading to a decline that is difficult to ignore – which is why I am compelled to consider my options immediately.

So, let me circle all the way back and simply answer John’s request to elaborate on the off ramp.

His cap number in 2024, which is the last year of his deal, is huge. He signed a four year, $160 million deal in 2021 and since next year is the last year, the organization does what it always does and pushed money back in the deal. Instead of a flat $40 million per season where his final year would seem cheap, they always do the opposite by making the early years really cheap and the later ones really expensive.

Why?

Because the Jones boys love to tack on another extension and do it all over again. Some franchises front-load the deals and the Cowboys take the easier path which is to pay him about $20 million in 2021, $20 million in 2022, $30 million in 2023, and $60 million in 2024. They still have roughly another $30 million on the books for fake years in 2025-2026 which they will worry about when the time comes.

Why? They were never not going to have Dak Prescott as their QB and they will worry about it when it gets here.

That is a great plan, as long as he is worth the trouble. And I am not sure they ever considered any other possibility.

Meanwhile, the current best three teams in the NFC found their QBs because they didn’t marry the old idea. Detroit actually improved by trading Matthew Stafford and took Jared Goff as a favor to the Rams. The Eagles signed Carson Wentz to a mega-deal and he was on the same timeline as Prescott, but walked away once they got a bad feeling and found Jalen Hurts. The 49ers married plan went from Jimmy G to Trey Lance to Brock Purdy.

None of them decided to lock in to a decade relationship with a QB because why would you do that with the uncertainty of the NFL marketplace being hinged to a human who could decline?

This has been on my mind for quite a while because I do have to concede that paying your QB can be a burden, so if we are going to commit to it, we better believe he is a HUGE reason that this team is as good as it is the entire time. I don’t mind paying the going rate for the right reasons, but it can’t be an uncertainty. The price of QBs is incredibly high and if you have a difference-making QB, you have to keep him. But, you also cannot pay someone for what they once were if a decline is happening.

We talked about this at great length this week on the Hardline and I have embedded the audio below.

The entire reason they have wanted to do a new deal with Prescott is for fear he will leave them, but rather, he is on the books for $60 million in 2024 and that sort of cap hit would be enormous. So, in the world where you chase sunk costs to the bottom of the ocean, the big brain solution is to smooth that number down by adding four more years to the relationship.

This is where the crazy pills would really help you.

An extension for Prescott would probably be for 2025-2028 and assuming that inflation would play in Dak’s favor and he would not be asking for a homer sweetheart deal, we should assume that $40 million a year in 2021 might escalate to $50 million by now. It seems that is where the market has landed for now. It is quite a living if you can handle the hits.

So, to shrink the 2024 cap hit of $60 million, they would seriously consider a two-year, $100 million deal? Or a four-year $200 million deal to push 2024 way down? But, aren’t you then on the hook past Prescott’s 35th birthday? If his athleticism has vanished by 30, do you think it gets better?

Stop.

You can’t do it. Do not touch his deal.

He has a no-trade clause and a no-tag clause, but the best thing you can do is wait. It might cost you some players in the 2024 season, but that is the pain to manage your way out of the mess. If I have to find a few cheap linemen to play in 2024, it is better than committing your plans through 2028 in a reckless way to eliminate stress from next season’s cap sheet.

Might that make 2024 a bit of a retool? Possible. It also might mean a new coach and a new QB. But, teams in this league do that and it seems they recover without the apocalyptic outcomes that people claim around here.

I just cannot watch this evolution and conclude that everything is great and let’s continue down this path. The QB play is not the only problem, but it is a problem for the price they are paying, that is a rough reality. Stop doubling down.

So, Bob, then who is the QB?

Dak Prescott, of course. Just because I tell his agent we are not talking extensions right now, doesn’t mean we don’t deserve the right to change our minds. But, you put the onus on him to make the most of the remainder of 2023. We see the benefits of contract-year performance. What if this team actually allows their QB to feel the pressures and realities of not being secured forever?

If he responds, great. If he doesn’t respond, then maybe you have your answer. Maybe 2024 is the final year and he plays it out. Or you get a good look at Trey Lance or some other option I haven’t thought of.

Then, if you feel like it, you thank him for his nine years as Cowboys QB and you realize that every era ends. Staubach and Aikman and Romo all ended. So will Prescott. You start over with $0 committed to your QB situation.

Will you find anyone as good as Prescott? Maybe not. But, the Eagles and 49ers and Lions all managed a path that seems fairly appealing right now, no?

I just cannot in anything approaching a clean conscience endorse another market-rate contract after seeing the path of this operation. Of course it is not nearly all his fault. But, the price of QBs lock you in and you can’t get out of the marriage until it expires. Why would any team with sane management want to kick that expiration date down four more years?

You are at the off-ramp in 14 months. And you are allowed to take it. The sunk-cost fallacy is real and it would be great if the Jones family could review it and not chase it.

I hope that answers the question.

We have a Cowboys-Chargers preview by Sunday Morning and Rangers coverage after every ALCS game. Enjoy your weekend.