The Dak Prescott Narrative Machine Never Stops

But how often is it actually true? The fair and the unfair of the Prescott talk

It was a beautiful week in Southern California.

I felt the Cowboys optimism washing over me, as it often does this time of year. Everything seems possible for a reasonably-loaded team when you have full health and full belief that maybe this is the year they can exit the desert.

But, the big issue that lurks in every mailbag was on display in Oxnard at one of the padded practices I was attending. There, lurking in my large sun-shading bucket hat, I had two Cowboys fans with their sons in tow and enjoying a conversation. They would offer each-other quick takes on all sorts of topics of the franchise, but every time Dak Prescott did not throw the ball perfectly and on time, they would shake their heads in disgust and remark with all the negativity that could be mustered in early August. They were absolutely convinced – while each of them had a child wearing a Prescott jersey – that Cooper Rush would have delivered that ball on time. Also, they agreed that Dak “does not throw receivers open” and that his interceptions are killing this franchise.

I probably should have asked to take a picture of their group to properly credit their comments accordingly, but given how often I hear that sort of commentary about the Cowboys quarterback entering his 8th season starting for this team, it is hardly unique.

Dak Prescott with the Hardline - Watch it below:

Dak has started 103 games as the QB of this franchise and while it is not at all uncommon for a QB with a limited playoff résumé to catch criticism from the massive NFL media machine, it is probably pretty rare for a guy who has won 63 games to be doubted by such a larger portion of his own fanbase.

With that being said, this fanbase retains Roger Staubach and Troy Aikman anecdotes as though they transpired just yesterday. They grasp the weight of historical importance and won't relent on scrutinizing the present-day Cowboys quarterbacks until they exhibit the capability to secure a victory of genuine significance in the annals of history. While acknowledging the contributions of Mr. Romo and Mr. Prescott, it's reasonable for a team that boasts five Super Bowl victories to refrain from halting the presses due to sporadic wildcard round triumphs.

And that is where we sit today, isn’t it?

Tony Romo was very good, but never very great when it mattered most. We have covered this pretty thoroughly over the years and perhaps the most upsetting truths of his entire career were that his body broke just as he was becoming the best version of himself and even more upsetting — the fact that Eli Manning was a lesser QB who will be remembered longer due to several historically significant conquests that all came to some degree at the expense of Romo’s Cowboys.

Prescott will rarely be regarded as a quarterback with technical similarities to Romo, but remarkably akin in his aptitude for maintaining the Cowboys' competitiveness and strength. However, up to this juncture, he has been unable to assemble a single year during which Cowboys fans can revel in the exhilaration of a Conference Championship game, let alone a Super Bowl appearance.

They both have been handsomely compensated, reasonably accomplished, and winners of roughly 6 of every 10 games, which is not to be completely discounted. In Chicago or Cleveland they would be hailed as the best the franchise has ever known, but here, the bar remains higher and it has never been touched by either of these two.

So, in an effort to occupy our time amidst the frustrations, some try to decide which of these two from the current generation is their hero while dunking on the other. I have seen it from both sides and while the conversations will happen, I am here to say the outcomes seem fairly pointless. Both are trying to chase history and slay the dragon that is holding the kingdom hostage and neither has had the answer yet.

Romo’s time is over, but the Prescott narratives continue to be pushed out by local and national media, which feed the fan talking points. And with each passing year, the individual performances don’t matter because the team accomplishments are lackluster. If you want to shut everyone up in an era where the Eagles can take two different teams to the Super Bowl in six seasons, then you must go on a run.

That is a fair narrative. It is how almost every big money QB is measured. Romo was a big money QB and so is Prescott. Some will say they must win a ring to carve their own path and that is probably true. But, we should lower the bar to a final-four berth just to see if even that can silence the critics. Frankly, I would love to see it to find out.

Last week, Dak Prescott was again put in Tier 2 of Mike Sando’s excellent QB Tier rankings at my former employer The Athletic. If you are wondering what Tier 2 means, here you go:

A Tier 2 quarterback can carry his team sometimes but not as consistently. He can handle pure passing situations in doses and/or possesses other dimensions that are special enough to elevate him above Tier 3. He has a hole or two in his game.

It was his 4th straight year in Tier 2 after three previous season in Tier 3. He was ranked as the No. 9 QB in the NFL which continues to sound right. In fact, he has been ranked between No. 9 and No. 12 since 2019.

I always tell people that Prescott is a Top-10 QB who is good enough to win it all. But, like those other QBs in Tier 2: Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, Trevor Lawrence, Matthew Stafford, DeShaun Watson, and Kirk Cousins — it won’t be because they are superstars and dragging the team on their own. Instead, it will be because they can win games, but also are best suited on an ensemble cast that has a strong roster throughout.

As you can see, Stafford has done it when he was placed on a team that was undeniably fantastic during 2021 season. Hurts nearly did in 2022. Lamar Jackson hears nearly every critical thing Dak Prescott hears.

You make a ton of money, now how about winning some playoff games?

That is the issue here. The narratives on Prescott will forever be moving targets, because the real target is a playoff run. They can say it is other things, but they really don’t hold water.

He can throw receivers open. He is a fantastic leader. And no, he is not an interception machine by any stretch.

Let me demonstrate by saying that if a guy plays seven years, we don’t have to act like the last dozen games are all that we have seen.

Below, I give you the interception percentages by year for Prescott’s career. The best way to understand interception percentage is basically INTs per 100 passes attempted. So, in world where you average 33 attempts per game, the number is how many picks you throw in every three games, roughly.

As you can see, we have two years where it gets to 2 percent, 2017 and 2022. You may recall 2017 was the year that Ezekiel Elliott missed half the year with a suspension and Chaz Green forced Prescott to spend a few weeks in therapy from that famous game in Atlanta. In 2022 Dallas had very little twitch at their skill positions beyond CeeDee Lamb and Tony Pollard (more on that in a moment).

But, now, allow me to add the league average red line to this chart.

I always preach “context” when we look at numbers. If you don’t know what the entire league is doing, how do we know if hitting .270 is good or bad? We must understand the context and when we introduce that red line, we see that Prescott’s 2022 was an outlier. It is not who he is by any stretch.

How do we know?

He has started 103 games in this league and that season represented only a dozen.

Nobody is happy about that spike in picks. But, if you look at each of them, some are clearly on Dak and some are clearly not.

We don’t have to act like this is anything but Noah Brown’s fault.

When it rains it pours — it hit him right between the numbers.

The Cowboys objective in 2023 was to improve the skill positions, which they did. The acquisition of Brandin Cooks is massive. I am confident that alone will make a significant difference in separation, yards after catch, and overall QB friendliness. A healthy Pollard and Michael Gallup will be nice, but it sure seems they plan on more Kavontae Turpin in the offense and Deuce Vaughn looks likely, too. That is an enormous amount of twitch added into this group.

More than anything, we already know that Dak is a 2 percent interception guy for his career in a league where 2.4 percent is average. Not only is he not an interception machine, but he is actually a better than average QB at taking care of the ball.

I am not here to endlessly defend Prescott (nor Romo before him), but I am here to say that in a 32-team league, the Cowboys have a Top-10 QB who needs to step up and win meaningful games soon. The team needed to improve his options and I believe they have – Zack Martin pending.

He is absolutely not perfect by any stretch. But he is darn good. He just needs to prove it and block out the rest of the noise. Because most of it is utter nonsense.