Amazing, isn’t it, to think that Joe Montana might be all that stood between Danny White and the NFL Hall of Fame. Most Cowboys fans today don’t realize just how good he was or how close he came to multiple Super Bowls.
I hope the addition of Cooks and subtraction of Kellen Moore provide a boost to Prescott this year. His receivers did him no favors last year and Moore did him no favors in the 2021 season playoff game against the 49ers as shown by Kurt Warner’s excellent analysis.
Yeah, the Warner breakdowns were insightful and quite damning in terms of Cowboys coaching. He repeatedly was confused what they routes were trying to do...as well as receivers running undisciplined routes.
Then we find out this week the receivers were never tasked with being aware of how many steps Dak's drops were. It all adds up to what I would consider to be a poorly coached offense (with McCarthy equally to blame as much as Moore).
Yet....the offense has been highly productive and downright explosive throughout much of the last few years. So it makes you wonder a bit. Moore obviously was doing something right, but those breakdowns sure illustrated there was a lot of room for improvement.
I'm so glad I found your page here. I was wondering where you were at The Athletic. Anyway, this is the article I've been needing. Like, I've kicked out Cowboys fans out of my bar for sharing bad takes on Dak. Some fans always think their is always something better smh.
Good article and timely. I now live in the NYC area, lived in McKinney back in the early 70's, and have been a Cowboy fan since 1971. I found the article to be timely because yesterday, on a local NYC sports talk radio station Tiki Barber (addressing the topic of INT's thrown by Dak last year) commented how Prescott was continually eyeballing CeeDee, and thought that Dak had grown accustomed to NOT even bothering to pick up the 2nd and 3rd receiver options. Ok, this was Tiki Barber's opinion which, of course appears, to be biased and perhaps a desperate attempt to win back a NY Giant fanbase. But it is has been my own long standing belief that Dak's attempt in calling the right audible, does indeed LACK consistency. How many times can you change a play at the line of scrimmage and call a running play up the middle at the line of scrimmage, only to have the running back fail to reach a 1st down. Bob, when you mentioned that Mike Sando's QB Tier rankings had the difference between Tier 2 QBs and Tier 3 QBs, was a CONSISTENCY that a Tier 2 QB possesses, do you think Mike is including the ability of a QB to read defenses correctly? Mike's description of "other dimensions that are special enough to elevate the QB above Tier 3" seems rather vague. When I compare Aaron Rodgers calling the perfect audible for a situation, it seems Rodgers is head and shoulders above Dak. It will be interesting to see how Dak fares this year, when calling plays at the line of scrimmage, without the constraints that Kellen Moore SEEMED to have placed upon Dak.
Going to comment on the Mike Sando Tiers, the placement is decided by 50 league members (8 GMs, 10 Head Coaches, 15 Coordinators, 10 executives, 4 QB coaches, and 3 involved in analytics). The audible piece is a mixture of the QB, play caller (a large portion of the time multiple plays are called in the huddle and the QB picks one based on defense alignment), and offensive structure. You hit the nail on the head with the Kellen Moore snippet since the offensive structure is now changing, the audible decisions will better show how good Dak really is
Rodney, are you saying you think Dak can’t read a defense? Because that’s what it sounds like. The reality is, Dak is almost universally praised for the mental side of his game when it comes to knowing what the defense is trying to do and where to go with the ball. The PFF guys are constantly talking about how Dak is at the tops in the league in that aspect of the game.
From my armchair ....I only see the results when Dak audibles and rarely did a I see last year, either a first down or a difference-making gain in yardage. Whether Dak and/or Kellen Moore can individually be held accountable when Dak audibles is beyond my scope. If you have stats from PFF about audibles, please share. I would definitely value statistical information, if any, on audibles taken last year at the Dallas Cowboys line of scrimmage.
The issue with tracking that is there is no way for defenses or us to know if he is really calling an audible or is calling a fake audible that means nothing to mess with his opponents. Like a 3rd base coach, much of what you see is subterfuge.
These posts always make me laugh. No one, including Bob or anyone else, knows what the exact options are he has on each play, what his keys/reads are through his progression, or his progression order. If the play designs are giving him 3 bad options at the line of scrimmage, it doesn't really matter what you check to does it? None of us can know and the only people who know how Dak TRULY grade out are in the building. One of those key people got fired. For any average, or even above average fan, to think they have any context to how Dak is actually performing on a play by play basis when it comes to decision making is crazy. You can judge visually on some things, but playcalling/audibles/reads/progression is not one of those things.
I disagree. Many QBs analyze these plays and tape and will tell you that there is only a certain way these concepts are taught. The idea that only 3 humans know a passing concept is not terribly true. Of course, that doesn't mean ANYONE can do it, either. But, there is a level of expertise that does exist outside of the building.
I don't disagree with you, but I don't mean 3 people, just people in the building vs. out. And yes you're right, certain professionals are able to make an educated assessment as to what those reads may have been.
Long story short, I'm saying that every unique gameplan is different week to week based on personnel, tendencies, etc etc etc and it's extremely hard for us to know what Dak was told that week to look for in regards to his reads/progressions. Concepts and the decision making that takes placed based on those concepts get changed every week based on things we will never know in the general public even if the aforementioned concept is well understood in football circles.
Hopefully that makes sense. I don't think I said 3 people but just meant in the building vs. out.
Also, I'm a huge Dak supporter and always have been, just trying to expand on some of the areas where I think it's especially unfair in how the general public perceives his abilities, this original post I responded to being one of them.
The “average” fan doesn’t study or know the game enough to block out the nay sayers, whose voices are louder than the rest. Dak is a very good QB and we are lucky to have him. Early in his career I was frustrated by his accuracy that I felt kept his receivers from being able to add YAC, but he has continued to get better with that. Let’s hope for health for the team and see what he can do with this new Texas Coast Offense!
I really think the best way to evaluate Dak would be for Cowboys fans to pick 2 comparable QBs - Perhaps other Tier 2 guys - and watch their every throw with the same intense scrutiny. This provides the context to see what is "normal" because if you only watch Dak and Mahomes and Rodgers, you are obviously not using proper context.
Including the pics, this is about as "good as it gets". Any "figurehead" picks up gripes & criticism projected from many unhappy persons. It just goes with the territory & facts seldom are meaningfully involved. Your writing helps to make sense out of the myriads of info passed out by the media. It's so great to have you back.
Coupled with this, I would love to hear your thoughts, in this forum, on the ruse that Shady and Acho are playing and how it fits with the American public and sports conversations in general. It seems incredible that sports conversations, as a whole, have just lost any form of intelligence with the general public because of shows and narratives like theirs.
If folks would only understand the reality that the media (SAS, Shady, Skip, etc.) have built their careers on either slamming the Cowboys or claiming them as their favorite. Notice how often the Cowboys come up daily in their shows. The Cowboys have the most fans but they also have the most haters. Whether speaking good or bad of the Cowboys doesn't matter, it's all good for ratings!
Very fair article. Would’ve liked to have seen you address the thermostat expectation you set in 2022 but thanks for responding in the mailbag :).
I do find the general conversation on Dak protecting the ball throughout his career a little misleading though bc it leaves out some context. Dak’s path to low interceptions was to never throw into NFL-tight windows, which had hampered the offense for stretches of his career.
So while the media and fans have scrutinized Dak for 2022’s turnovers, even as a Dak cynic, I never felt it appropriate. I’d much rather he cut it loose than to play unsure and conservative as he did at times 2016-2020. With McCarthy preaching “stay aggressive” last year, I took it as he was coaching Dak to stop playing conservatively a la 2021 playoff loss to SF where he fed Ced Wilson and Schultz all day.
Aligning with the stats and rankings you provide, and like Romo, (and Danny White in deference to @Lee Wise above) Dak is a good QB, not a great QB. He is what he is, and he's not been enough to get to the NFC Championship game, let alone the SB. For sure the Cowboys would be far far worse off without him (and for sure Cooper Rush is not the answer), but OTOH I have tempered my expectations of the Dak-led Cowboys to making the playoffs and exiting after a game or two.
Another for sure is if Zack Martin is not playing, then 9-8/10-7 is probably the high-water mark.
Three straight conference championship appearances didn't quiet critics of Danny White or the 1980-1982 Cowboys teams. I doubt it would now.
Amazing, isn’t it, to think that Joe Montana might be all that stood between Danny White and the NFL Hall of Fame. Most Cowboys fans today don’t realize just how good he was or how close he came to multiple Super Bowls.
That was coming off the immediate Roger years. You are right, but we are 20+ years from having that expectation well we should be anyway....
If anything you underplay how good Dak actually is. Good article.
I hope the addition of Cooks and subtraction of Kellen Moore provide a boost to Prescott this year. His receivers did him no favors last year and Moore did him no favors in the 2021 season playoff game against the 49ers as shown by Kurt Warner’s excellent analysis.
Yeah, the Warner breakdowns were insightful and quite damning in terms of Cowboys coaching. He repeatedly was confused what they routes were trying to do...as well as receivers running undisciplined routes.
Then we find out this week the receivers were never tasked with being aware of how many steps Dak's drops were. It all adds up to what I would consider to be a poorly coached offense (with McCarthy equally to blame as much as Moore).
Yet....the offense has been highly productive and downright explosive throughout much of the last few years. So it makes you wonder a bit. Moore obviously was doing something right, but those breakdowns sure illustrated there was a lot of room for improvement.
I'm so glad I found your page here. I was wondering where you were at The Athletic. Anyway, this is the article I've been needing. Like, I've kicked out Cowboys fans out of my bar for sharing bad takes on Dak. Some fans always think their is always something better smh.
Bob,
Good article and timely. I now live in the NYC area, lived in McKinney back in the early 70's, and have been a Cowboy fan since 1971. I found the article to be timely because yesterday, on a local NYC sports talk radio station Tiki Barber (addressing the topic of INT's thrown by Dak last year) commented how Prescott was continually eyeballing CeeDee, and thought that Dak had grown accustomed to NOT even bothering to pick up the 2nd and 3rd receiver options. Ok, this was Tiki Barber's opinion which, of course appears, to be biased and perhaps a desperate attempt to win back a NY Giant fanbase. But it is has been my own long standing belief that Dak's attempt in calling the right audible, does indeed LACK consistency. How many times can you change a play at the line of scrimmage and call a running play up the middle at the line of scrimmage, only to have the running back fail to reach a 1st down. Bob, when you mentioned that Mike Sando's QB Tier rankings had the difference between Tier 2 QBs and Tier 3 QBs, was a CONSISTENCY that a Tier 2 QB possesses, do you think Mike is including the ability of a QB to read defenses correctly? Mike's description of "other dimensions that are special enough to elevate the QB above Tier 3" seems rather vague. When I compare Aaron Rodgers calling the perfect audible for a situation, it seems Rodgers is head and shoulders above Dak. It will be interesting to see how Dak fares this year, when calling plays at the line of scrimmage, without the constraints that Kellen Moore SEEMED to have placed upon Dak.
Going to comment on the Mike Sando Tiers, the placement is decided by 50 league members (8 GMs, 10 Head Coaches, 15 Coordinators, 10 executives, 4 QB coaches, and 3 involved in analytics). The audible piece is a mixture of the QB, play caller (a large portion of the time multiple plays are called in the huddle and the QB picks one based on defense alignment), and offensive structure. You hit the nail on the head with the Kellen Moore snippet since the offensive structure is now changing, the audible decisions will better show how good Dak really is
Rodney, are you saying you think Dak can’t read a defense? Because that’s what it sounds like. The reality is, Dak is almost universally praised for the mental side of his game when it comes to knowing what the defense is trying to do and where to go with the ball. The PFF guys are constantly talking about how Dak is at the tops in the league in that aspect of the game.
Mike,
From my armchair ....I only see the results when Dak audibles and rarely did a I see last year, either a first down or a difference-making gain in yardage. Whether Dak and/or Kellen Moore can individually be held accountable when Dak audibles is beyond my scope. If you have stats from PFF about audibles, please share. I would definitely value statistical information, if any, on audibles taken last year at the Dallas Cowboys line of scrimmage.
Rod
The issue with tracking that is there is no way for defenses or us to know if he is really calling an audible or is calling a fake audible that means nothing to mess with his opponents. Like a 3rd base coach, much of what you see is subterfuge.
These posts always make me laugh. No one, including Bob or anyone else, knows what the exact options are he has on each play, what his keys/reads are through his progression, or his progression order. If the play designs are giving him 3 bad options at the line of scrimmage, it doesn't really matter what you check to does it? None of us can know and the only people who know how Dak TRULY grade out are in the building. One of those key people got fired. For any average, or even above average fan, to think they have any context to how Dak is actually performing on a play by play basis when it comes to decision making is crazy. You can judge visually on some things, but playcalling/audibles/reads/progression is not one of those things.
I disagree. Many QBs analyze these plays and tape and will tell you that there is only a certain way these concepts are taught. The idea that only 3 humans know a passing concept is not terribly true. Of course, that doesn't mean ANYONE can do it, either. But, there is a level of expertise that does exist outside of the building.
I don't disagree with you, but I don't mean 3 people, just people in the building vs. out. And yes you're right, certain professionals are able to make an educated assessment as to what those reads may have been.
Long story short, I'm saying that every unique gameplan is different week to week based on personnel, tendencies, etc etc etc and it's extremely hard for us to know what Dak was told that week to look for in regards to his reads/progressions. Concepts and the decision making that takes placed based on those concepts get changed every week based on things we will never know in the general public even if the aforementioned concept is well understood in football circles.
Hopefully that makes sense. I don't think I said 3 people but just meant in the building vs. out.
very fair. Thanks, Beau
Thanks for continuing to write in a very tough writing environment! Glad we are getting to talk football again
Also, I'm a huge Dak supporter and always have been, just trying to expand on some of the areas where I think it's especially unfair in how the general public perceives his abilities, this original post I responded to being one of them.
Glad I found your latest. Have missed your excellence in writing since The Athletic. Good work as usual sir.
The “average” fan doesn’t study or know the game enough to block out the nay sayers, whose voices are louder than the rest. Dak is a very good QB and we are lucky to have him. Early in his career I was frustrated by his accuracy that I felt kept his receivers from being able to add YAC, but he has continued to get better with that. Let’s hope for health for the team and see what he can do with this new Texas Coast Offense!
I really think the best way to evaluate Dak would be for Cowboys fans to pick 2 comparable QBs - Perhaps other Tier 2 guys - and watch their every throw with the same intense scrutiny. This provides the context to see what is "normal" because if you only watch Dak and Mahomes and Rodgers, you are obviously not using proper context.
Including the pics, this is about as "good as it gets". Any "figurehead" picks up gripes & criticism projected from many unhappy persons. It just goes with the territory & facts seldom are meaningfully involved. Your writing helps to make sense out of the myriads of info passed out by the media. It's so great to have you back.
Coupled with this, I would love to hear your thoughts, in this forum, on the ruse that Shady and Acho are playing and how it fits with the American public and sports conversations in general. It seems incredible that sports conversations, as a whole, have just lost any form of intelligence with the general public because of shows and narratives like theirs.
If folks would only understand the reality that the media (SAS, Shady, Skip, etc.) have built their careers on either slamming the Cowboys or claiming them as their favorite. Notice how often the Cowboys come up daily in their shows. The Cowboys have the most fans but they also have the most haters. Whether speaking good or bad of the Cowboys doesn't matter, it's all good for ratings!
Very fair article. Would’ve liked to have seen you address the thermostat expectation you set in 2022 but thanks for responding in the mailbag :).
I do find the general conversation on Dak protecting the ball throughout his career a little misleading though bc it leaves out some context. Dak’s path to low interceptions was to never throw into NFL-tight windows, which had hampered the offense for stretches of his career.
So while the media and fans have scrutinized Dak for 2022’s turnovers, even as a Dak cynic, I never felt it appropriate. I’d much rather he cut it loose than to play unsure and conservative as he did at times 2016-2020. With McCarthy preaching “stay aggressive” last year, I took it as he was coaching Dak to stop playing conservatively a la 2021 playoff loss to SF where he fed Ced Wilson and Schultz all day.
RIP NFL dots!
Bob, good analysis and good insights on Dak.
Aligning with the stats and rankings you provide, and like Romo, (and Danny White in deference to @Lee Wise above) Dak is a good QB, not a great QB. He is what he is, and he's not been enough to get to the NFC Championship game, let alone the SB. For sure the Cowboys would be far far worse off without him (and for sure Cooper Rush is not the answer), but OTOH I have tempered my expectations of the Dak-led Cowboys to making the playoffs and exiting after a game or two.
Another for sure is if Zack Martin is not playing, then 9-8/10-7 is probably the high-water mark.