Friday Free Mailbag: Your Questions/My Answers

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Free Friday Mailbag is our weekly tradition of giving every paid subscriber here at #SturmStack a chance to tackle our weekly "Group of 10" questions for answers.

We moved it to Saturday this week to ensure you had your playoff preview in a timely fashion on Friday during the playoffs, but here we are. As tradition dictates, we put 100 minutes on the clock and give 10 different subscribers each week roughly 10 minutes of my time to see where that takes us.

It's the least I can do, and all I ask is that perhaps you consider joining us here at our little start-up newsletter to keep us going!

Ok, before we get to our “Group of 10” that were selected from this week’s bag, here is “this week’s thing I discovered that I want you to know about”:

THING DISCOVERED THIS WEEK THAT I WANT YOU TO KNOW ABOUT:

This one is a bit of a flashback to something we've been discussing, which is the year of CeeDee Lamb where he emerges as a 1st Team All-Pro in his 4th season. That is a lofty accomplishment after making 2nd Team All-Pro in his 3rd season. The sky is truly the limit for this young man.

Anyway, I was asked about what makes him so difficult to deal with, and there are many reasons, but one that I could not fully overlook reminded me of his 2021 Hard Knocks segment where he was working on his release footwork with one of the best, Amari Cooper.

So, since I had to go looking for it, it seemed perfect to post here. We didn't know at the time that the Cowboys were about to unload Cooper by the end of that season, and my readers know how that enraged me, but part of the motivation was to promote Lamb to the No. 1 spot here and to see if he could emerge as one of the best of the best. It appears that has been asked and answered.

But, that video above shows that you aren't just "born with it" and blessed from above. The best of the best are both talented and driven to figure out the techniques and tactics to be even a little better than that. This is a short video above, but I enjoyed the heck out of reviewing it, and I hope you do as well.

Beyond that, Fargo Season 5 is awesome, and I highly encourage you to check that out if you like great television.

Ok, here we go. 100 minutes and 10 questions. In the words of Dak Prescott, “HERE WE GOOOOOOOOOOO.”

From Ramiro de la Garza: Bob, one of your latest X posts about the 10+ turnover differential and the avoidance of losing streaks and the home field advantage struck a chord. What we had prior to MM in our coaching in recent past was mediocrity, life at .500. No matter what happens on Sunday, MM stays in Dallas.

It's a weird block I live on these days as I have become some sort of Mike McCarthy apologist. This is a lonely place in the world, but I just don't believe in blaming the coach and QB for everything that goes wrong with the Cowboys. When you live in my mentions and you have covered this team for 26 seasons, you hear from hundreds and thousands of Cowboys fans. Invariably when they feel disappointed, they want the coach fired and the QB traded/cut/benched, and it is a consistent approach from the masses.

I think it is a cop-out, but a natural one. People are busy in their lives and don't have time to study this all day and night. They have jobs and families and whatever life may bring, so when people blame the coach and QB, it is like blaming the president because the gas prices are higher than you like. It may not have any connection to reality, but it is how we have been taught how to deal with disappointment.

Well, as you know, I have only vocally wanted one Cowboys coach fired in my time here. That was Jason Garrett when it was clear he needed to go (about December of 2012!), but otherwise, I have always wanted to be patient and fight the urge to always blame the guy who we blame. Does it even make sense?

And the QB? Since I got here when the public was running out of patience for Troy Aikman, I have seen every QB here blamed for everything – even the defensive shortcomings! Obviously, that is a knee-jerk reaction, too.

So, yes, I think Dak Prescott is an excellent Top 10 in the NFL QB and has been for several years. And yes, I think Mike McCarthy is an excellent coach going back to his first head coaching year in 2006. And, in both cases, I have objective evidence on my side. In the case of McCarthy, it is averaging 10 wins a year and the playoffs better than 70% of the time. And, of those seasons, roughly 65% of those include a playoff win.

You can find better coaches than that (they are all in the Hall of Fame!), but you can also find much, much worse coaches than that all over the league. If anything is great about McCarthy's run here in Dallas, 2020-2023, it is that at least we can now subtract Aaron Rodgers as the sole reason for his success, as so many critics have stated. And then, yes, his key attributes have followed him to Dallas:

• Almost no losing streaks at all. When they lose, they win the next game.

• Home field winning percentages that are at the top of the league.

• Turnover Differential dominance.

• The consistent ability to withstand injuries.

Everything else has changed over time, but these things remain the same. He has evolved and yet maintained these attributes. And for those reasons alone, he deserves a better reputation than he gets.

From Steve C: Hi Bob - there has been a significant improvement in Dak this year vs the Kellen Moore years. How has McCarthy made a difference, beyond play calling? Did we potentially lose a couple of years of Dak’s career sticking with Kellen controlling the offence and Dak’s development, when an earlier switch to McCarthy may have hastened the upgraded performance we saw from Dak this year?

I think this entire process has been about getting Dak Prescott to take more of the steering wheel. I know this sounds crazy, but I have seen a number of situations this season where McCarthy has absolutely empowered Prescott to become demanding. I have always marveled at how Prescott seems so compliant to those around him in the coaching staff, and I believe they have needed him to stop being so cooperative. The best QBs are control freaks (not in a psycho way, but are detail-oriented about how everything needs to work), and for Dak to take the next level, he would need to say how he wants everything. This is how Dak and Lamb are now at the next level; they can read each other’s minds, and that doesn't just happen. It happens because they put in the work, and they do it without being told to do it. They do it because they realize that is how you get to where Rodgers and Davante Adams did it and how Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp did it. There are no shortcuts.

Also, though, when you empower a QB, you must live with his decisions. So, McCarthy has trusted Prescott to do what he thinks is right and then has his back to the critics if it doesn't work. Remember the end of games kill shots vs Detroit and Seattle that made everyone mad about clock management? In both of those cases, it seems that Prescott has decided to get super aggressive and risk poor clock management, and McCarthy took the blame. That is part of the deal. If you are trusting your QB1 to be a veteran and a co-coordinator of how the offense works, you also agree to understand that it won't always be a stunning success. Sometimes it will fail, and that is where a coach steps up and falls on the sword. Hand up! Blame me. And then they meet and talk about it and try to figure out how to do it better next time. But, the head coach cannot play QB for his guy. Like Dak and Lamb, the ultimate goal is for QB and play-caller to also have a mind-melding arrangement where they also see things identically and trust each other. I think we are closer to that with these two than honestly at any time since Aikman and Norv Turner were always on the same page. It is tough to get to this spot. You need a veteran QB who has seen it all and a play-caller who has the QB’s full trust.

And when you get it, you can contend for the whole thing.

From Chris Noyes: Are the Rangers going to resign Montgomery? Is he (aka Scott Boras) just asking for too much money? Are the Rangers unwilling to go into the luxury tax range? How much of this is truly affected by the uncertainty with Bally, or is that just a convenient excuse for the Rangers? We need some starting pitchers for the first half of the year (before the walking wounded warriors return), so if not Monty then who will throw all those innings?

Boy, this is a fascinating topic and probably one that deserves more expansive writing than just merely a mailbag. There is a lot of things here to consider.

First, let me be clear on this one: I really, really want Jordan Montgomery resigned. He was just fantastic in those playoff games. Lest anyone forget, here is the Montgomery Playoff Game log from our friends at ESPN.com:

I mean, just look at that! He took the ball over and over and was just dynamite in winning Games 1 and 7 in Houston with a courageous effort in Game 5’s famous loss to those Astros. He was great in shutting out Tampa Bay to get it all started and was ready to go in Game 6 back in Arlington if the World Series made it back to Texas (it did not).

Now, what is the price Montgomery is holding out for? Or, is he trying to give the Rangers the chance to sort their television revenue situation? We keep hearing things but I cannot confirm a whole lot. But, the longer he hangs out there, the more it seems like Texas has a real chance at keeping him.

So where is the rotation in April as it currently stands?

Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Andrew Heaney, Dane Dunning, and Cody Bradford, I suppose? Jacob DeGrom is still hoping for August 1st after Tommy John, and Max Scherzer could be July 1st after back surgery, or so. I don’t even know where that leaves not signing Tyler Mahle. Montgomery has a place, for sure. But, whether they get this done – and bullpen help, too – is anyone’s guess.

I don’t wish to get cynical about the ownership spending with a few quiet months since the title because they did spend $800m in the last 24 months. Let’s not be crazy here. But, I do very much want the lefty back. So, we will be monitoring Montgomery’s situation here as we near spring training. It seems to be a pretty big deal. Would love to see them get that done.

From Jim: Who would be the bigger loss, DQ or Will McClay?

Great question. They are both significant pieces to this puzzle. The news on Friday that the Cowboys had retained McClay for another year (as we thank his high school son for remaining in high school and keeping McClay reluctant about moving his family at this time) was welcomed with fist pumps all around. McClay’s work has been invaluable, and the Cowboys roster build is a real credit to his work at drafting and college acquisitions.

But, Dan Quinn has brought competence and excellence from the defense at a very high level since 2021. Very high. They have exceeded expectations in the secondary without any massive investment in free agency. They have grown their own and taken on some safety reclamation projects that have all worked out without spending high 1sts or huge contracts to do so.

He has established an ethos on that defense that can actually rise to the top of the organizational depth chart where at times people actually define the Cowboys as a defense-first contender. We know that hasn’t happened in ages. It surely feels like losing Dan Quinn is about to happen.

Clearly, not seeing Quinn in the booth during the games will feel more damaging than McClay, but trying to measure the precise contributions each makes is impossible. Let’s just say that the Cowboys have the ability to keep staffs together at a better rate than almost anyone, so it has been fun. I just think Quinn’s time has arrived so that is the one that hurts a bit more.

From Reccan Dides: Hey Bob - wanted to get your take on the current Mavs roster and how great Luka, Kyrie, and surprisingly how Lively has already looking like Chandler 2.0 with plenty of room to grow. But feels like they are always one piece away from truly contending. What are your thoughts?

From Dave: Following up on this, what does it say when Derek Lively and Dante Exum are your #3 and #4 best players and make anywhere from 1/6 to 1/2 of what Tim Hardaway Jr, Grant Williams and Richaun Holmes make?

I combined these two because Dave joined in the chat thread. It makes sense.

Well, I am going to focus on the Mavericks' positives at the moment because I have really enjoyed the last stretch where Kyrie Irving has returned from his heel situation, and it has ignited the Mavericks in a couple of big wins over Minnesota and New York. They have now won 5 of their last 7 and sit at 23-16 before a back-to-back with New Orleans this weekend in Dallas.

I think the Mavericks' roster construction has taken some major strides in the last 12 months, and I don't want to not point that out. When the Mavericks have added Kyrie to Luka, it represents the single best player that Luka has ever played with. I know Kyrie appreciation is against the rules these days (I get it, I promise), but he is objectively fantastic as a player, and his teammates seem to really enjoy him. Then, adding Dereck Lively has been huge. I have belief that Grant Williams will come out the other side here as a plus signing, and Derrick Jones Jr has been a real find.

In other words, this roster is improving! It may not be at the right speed for everyone, but I believe I see their path, and I believe it makes sense. They definitely need Josh Green to get going, and that can help things fall into place.

Yes, they are one trade short at the moment, but that could happen before this deadline. If you have a starting five that includes Luka, Kyrie, Lively, and a Pascal Siakam-type deal, I love their chances to become an instant contender. In other words, I realize it has been quite a long road to building this roster up, but I believe the build is promising at the moment. I believe there is a real plan, and it makes sense to me right now. We shall see if I am just a homer!

From Eric Smith: Is this the mailbag thread or will there be another?

From Eric Smith Mailbag question - Looks like Palace might go even more under the control of Harris. With the proliferation of American owners in the Prem - do we expect a drop in competition and and a potential return to a ‘Super League’? Owners that don’t fully appreciate the meaning of the clubs to the town/city make me nervous for the future.

This is the mailbag! I post it in the chats about every Wednesday and pick the 10 for Friday/Saturday and try to make it a weekly “must”, but you know…

The “Harris” Eric is referencing is Josh Harris who owns the Washington Commanders, Philadelphia 76ers, and New Jersey Devils. Apparently, he is doing well financially in life. He has been quite aggressive in his moves in the sports world in recent years, according to Fortune:

when Roman Abramovich’s Chelsea FC went up for sale last year, Harris’s group made the final round, but the English Premier League club went to Todd Boehly, who had backing from private equity firm Clearlake Capital. The NFL’s Denver Broncos hit the market around the same time, and Harris was again involved, but was outmatched by Rob Walton’s $59 billion fortune. 

With the Washington Commanders, Harris made sure another mega-billionaire wouldn’t beat him out.

A group led by Harris is close to a deal to buy the NFL franchise for $6 billion, a record amount for any professional sports team. Serious rivals including Jeff Bezos, the world’s third richest person, weighed bids but ultimately dropped out.  

The deal has yet to be executed and could still fall through, and any agreement would also need approval from other owners. Still, should it be finalized, it would add a crown jewel to his sports empire and put Harris in rarefied air among the billionaire class.

So, he tried for Chelsea and now is buying a much bigger stake in Crystal Palace. So, does all of this outside ownership threaten the Premier League? Probably, to some extent. Tom Hicks had this as motivation almost 20 years ago when he bought Liverpool and admitted later he had no idea what he was stepping into.

What that means is that these owners think they can buy a franchise and do pretty much whatever they want, because that is how it works in America. Well, trust me, many have learned that in England, you don’t mess with their clubs or they riot. And that isn’t a metaphor. I mean an actual riot.

It is this truth that makes me think we will not ruin things too much by trying to move a Premier League team to Birmingham, Alabama or anything. The EPL is the identity of that country and they cannot live without worldwide investment. But, they also have no plans on letting anyone ruin it or change it too much. I am curious what that all means because almost no clubs remain who are fully owned by English owners. Our American sports leagues have not dealt much with this yet, but those soccer clubs now have owners from the four corners of the planet.

From Michael Snapp: You think Micah being left off the NFLPA All-Pro team is more about the absurd number of high level edge players in the league, or are dudes in the game already getting tired of his schtick (complaints about officiating, hyper awareness of everything said about him, being super online, etc.)?

Interesting question. I think Micah was left off the All-Pro team because it is such a tough spot. I tweeted about this week and it was apparently controversial:

Look, I realize in all five of these cities, everyone is sure that their guy belongs as one of the top 2. I also believe Micah is a guy I would die to have on my team. But, there is no compelling case, in my mind, that he is clearly a “snub” as an All-Pro. Now, does the extra stuff knock him down in the eyes of voters? I doubt it. I would love to see Micah less worried about arguing with refs during games, but it probably does not make him play worse.

If I am voting, it is probably Watt and Garrett, but again, there is no wrong answer. Here they are as measured by Splash Plays this year:

I am not trying to tell you Parsons is the worst of this group, but he does have the fewest splash plays. Sacks are important, team impact is important, and the amount of attention you draw is, too.

But, I guess what I am saying is there are five elite players above and only two slots. Whoever was left off the list was going to feel slighted, but like I said in the tweet, there is no wrong answer.

From John: Mailbag question- You're a lifelong Packer fan and I'm a South Mississippian. What's your take on the Farve legal issues going on these days?

I hate to hear of them, and if they are found to be true, he should pay whatever penalty is offered. If that includes time behind bars, then so be it. I don't like to hear that someone has veered off the path after their careers, but obviously, some do.

Favre is an interesting dude and always has been. At the same time, it doesn't change what I think about his QB career, and he is always going to be an absolute favorite. In the last few decades, it seems more and more people consume their sports with a close scorecard about off-field conduct, and at times it appears that includes social media, interviews, and everything.

I have always been careful about that because our modern online world loves to execute people (cancel them!) without a careful judgment of actual evidence. We hear whispers and rumors and decide that this guy should never play for my team because he votes differently than I do or worships in a different religion that I do.

I know everyone has a right to feel how they do, but I have always tried to remain consistent and not get too involved in this. Obviously, that is impossible to completely do when OJ Simpson situations break out, but I try to separate the off-field from the on-field. If a player has served his penalty, I usually am willing to give him a fresh start when he comes to town (Kyrie Irving probably applies here).

As for Favre, if the charges are true, that is incredibly sad, disappointing, and embarrassing. But, I have no idea if they are all true, and I also don't plan on doing my own investigation to find out. This is where I have no problem sticking to sports. The personal conduct of former athletes is a part of all of this that does not hold my interest like it does others. I just don't have the bandwidth.

From Shelby Gray: Fun question - have you and Romo ever spoken offline about your mutual cheese-head up-bringing? If you are a 10/10 superfan (calf tattoo, kiddo named after Farve), where would you place Romo in his Packer fandom?

I haven’t talked with Romo in years. I know he listens to our show frequently because I hear of his feedback, but we haven’t crossed paths. Back in the day we chatted and he was nearly identical to me and everyone else up there who had Brett Favre and Michael Jordan on our minds constantly in the 1990’s.

That said, athletes are different than the rest of us in that I don’t believe they keep their boyhood cheering habits once they make the league and get their own team. I believe Romo’s Packer fandom is probably a time in his childhood that he moved on from and if he roots these days, it is 100% for his Cowboys. I am sure of that much.

And, the tattoo is on the shoulder. My calves are both available for future ink.

From Chris Park: As hard as it may seem considering the outsized media coverage this team gets, it feels like CeeDee Lamb’s season is somehow being overlooked. With WR contracts on the precipice of exploding, what does his price point look like, do you think that Dallas is right to meet it, and how do you see him aging into his late 20’s considering his build and how fearless he is?

This feels like another column that I need to tackle this spring. But, when we look at the top WR contracts in the NFL right now, Spotrac tells us the following. Always note the last column for AAV (Average Annual Value):

Tyreek Hill is at $30m and Davante Adams is at $28m. With that in mind, the 2020 draft class is entering their 5th and final year and extensions are coming for Justin Jefferson and Lamb. Jefferson seemed a clear tier up, but Lamb has really closed that gap in 2023.

Do they both get to $30m a season? I imagine they do. Lamb will be paid by Dallas and we assume it will be an incredibly huge deal. He has exceeded his numbers each season he has been a pro and has remained healthy and durable. In other words, he has hit his ceiling and he still appears to be on an upward trajectory that is still heading up and up.

Will his next four years be better than his first four? He has to stay healthy and driven, but so far, he has done everything possible to seem like a sure thing. He is incredible.

Ok, I have exceeded my time and 4,000 words. Holy cow.

Have a great Wildcard Weekend!