Our Free Mailbag: Your Questions/My Answers
This week it is pretty much all Cowboys offseason thoughts and ideas for your perusal.
Another week has passed and I spent an awful lot of time in front of the television following the week’s events in Mobile at the Senior Bowl because we must grab on to this NFL Draft very carefully and thoroughly in the next several months.
I realize it isn’t for everyone, but it is for those of us who cover the draft and also for those of you who love to ponder how we build a NFL team from the bottom up. The impact of the 2023 draft on the 2023 NFL season this year was obvious (even if Dallas did not enjoy that part of the season) and many, many playoff teams saw immediate upgrades to their roster. It is the best way to get your team to where it wants to go.
The Senior Bowl week is the first time guys like me can put faces with names for most of the draft candidates. It is a deep pool and due to the retirement of my friend, Norm Hitzges, my day job will require I go deeper than ever before. I won’t bombard you with every profile on the normal Sturmstack feed, but there will be an additional mailing list for those of you who do want to receive everything that you can opt into. I will send instructions on that front here in short order.
In the meantime, let me show you what you can check out as a paid subscriber this week since we last talked seven days ago:
I spent the day with the Dallas Stars as they beat the Capitals.
My story on the Dak Prescott contract and the franchise’s future with Stephen Jones calling all the shots.
If you haven’t read those pieces, be sure to check them out and enjoy them. Also, you may be aware that here at Substack, we have an audio feature through the app where the nice AI lady will read you my stories on your commute or out doing yard-work, so take advantage of that, too.
Ok, this week’s mailbag is going to pair with a story I am working on for the Cowboys 2024 offseason To Do list that will appear early next week. The Dak/Stephen story got everyone fired up, so I thought today’s mailbag will address that and the Cowboys current situation rather than flying all over the place on various other topics. We will get back to that next week. These are all from the comments of our Wednesday story:
From Daniel M: I came in with no hope for next season and somehow feel worse after reading this article.
Oh No! I don’t want you to feel that way about a team that has won 36 games in the last three years. This is a very good football team and I try to preach that constantly so people don’t get carried away with their battle against the last three decades. But, sometimes, especially within a few weeks of the latest playoff demise, it is always tough to kick it positive.
The general view I have about the state of Cowboys football is that I often wonder about the Jones family’s commitment to winning a Super Bowl. I have talked about this for years and certainly don’t want a label as a “hater”, but for decades I have seen them operate in the public eye and the number of times I see them make decisions that impact their financial growth far outweigh the number of times I have seen them make decisions that impact their football dominance. People conflate and confuse these issues as the same thing, but they are not. Running a profitable business that has grown into the most valuable franchise in professional sports worldwide often can hurt the actual football operation. Troy Aikman has recently chatted about the messages that are sent that don’t suggest everything is always about football in this facility. They maximize profits and popularity, but sometimes that can come at the price of building an environment that sends the wrong messaging. And then if you do, that getting every dollar is more important than getting any trophy, sometimes that gets to the individual players and they start thinking the same way. I got to get mine, too!
So, I do try to kick things positive as often as possible, but when I do turn those stones over, it does leave a bit of a bummer attitude.
From John: This was depressing but not unexpected. The only hope is Stephen becomes an enlightened owner and hires a real GM. Unlikely. I was 35 last time they won the SB and am now 62. I don't expect to ever see them in a SB again as long as they conduct business as usual.
I do want to say this: I do think it is very possible Stephen will hire a General Manager the moment he is put in place as head of the company. That will not preclude him from making the biggest moves as owner (see Mark Cuban and pretty much every owner in the universe) but it would remove him from my biggest issue with Jerry Jones being the GM.
What is that, Bob?
I just expect my GM to do all the GM things. Run the scouting department by example, study film, write evaluations, go see players in person, burn the midnight oil learning the league, and looking for ways to optimize success on the field nonstop. I have covered the team for 26 years and there has not been a day where I thought Jerry Jones had an independent evaluation of any college player on his own. I have never thought he has studied even his own team’s film (sitting in a room when someone else does it should not count) and I don’t think he can give me the starters of the Giants or Commanders defense right now. I think those are all basic things every GM in the league can do, besides him.
So, in short, if Stephen wants to be taken more seriously, he can either demonstrate that he knows ball enough to sit in the chair or he can step aside and let Will McClay or someone else do what the job expects of the title holder.
There is no shame in not insisting in this game of dress-up that Jerry has done for over 30 years.
From Nick Tzourtzouklis: OUTSTANDING piece. Unbelievable how they seem not to learn with experience. I have said it before but with each passing year it becomes clearer that their overall mismanagement is defying the odds of just randomly lucking your way into a conf finals. Having said that many of us will be excited for the start of a new football season. Hope springs eternal...
Thank you, Nick! I don’t know if you have all gotten to know Nick, but we have talked for ages about the statistical probabilities that Dallas could go this long without a single NFC Title game. He has written it out here back in October:
Ran the probabilities using the law of complimentary probability and the bottom line regarding the Cowboys is the probability of just randomly making the NFC championship game once every 30 years is 98 percent or in other words the chance of not randomly lucking your way into an NFC championship once every 30 season is just 2 percent!. IF the Cowboys don't make the NFC title game in next 2 seasons they will have greatly defied the odds over a 30 year period.
98%! There are times like these where it is easier to understand why Cowboys fans have lost their energy for the fight. Hope does spring eternal, but this fanbase seems collectively out of optimism and perhaps we have stumbled upon the reason why. They have defeated a 98% probability with their 2% result. Yikes.
From Chris McClure: Yeah, the future isn’t looking too bright. The Joneses face no consequences for not winning, so nothing will ever change. The one move most fans would love to see but know will never happen would be hiring Aikman as GM. John Lynch has the benefit of a great coach in Shanahan, but I like to think Aikman could have at least as much success as Lynch. And I’d love to see him have the opportunity.
Trust me, I agree. After working with Troy for almost a decade, I can tell you that he watches the film and knows the players at a much-higher-than proper level. I would love to see it and I also know that there was a time (of many years) where he aspired to that sort of job in the NFL. However, I do think that his move to ESPN has him happy and secure where he currently is and I am not sure he is as interested in front office life. I can say this: the Cowboys are probably the one place that would make him change that mind, but I also know that Jerry has never even flirted with the idea. Troy would want to team with a coach he believes in like Lynch and Shanahan (who actually met through a Fox broadcast where Lynch was working his game and interviewing then Atlanta-OC Shanahan) and have a partnership that is unified in vision and focus.
Again, does Dallas prioritize streamlining the focus on winning? You tell me.
From Dan Burgin This is an amazing social commentary of the dysfunction of economic elites to gain control of corporations (like the Dallas Cowboys) and make incredibly stupid decisions without any real negative impact to their bottom line. They make money no matter what. The economics don't punish the incompetence. And football is an amazing place to be rewarded financially beyond anyone's wildest dreams without really doing anything particularly smart. Amazing, and frankly, depressing to us lifelong Cowboy fans. Tom Landry, Clint Murchison, and Tex Schram, you are so missed.
I often have said that it would be interesting to see what the Cowboys would become without a salary cap. If you could spend without penalty (baseball/soccer) and build your own super team with your profits, would you? Would they? They could literally go 2-deep with the best at every position and double up the league’s payroll. We see this at Manchester City or PSG and it works pretty well to always have more great players. Would they do it? Or does the profit margin of the current NFL system where the Cowboys clear more than they spend on their payroll every year suit everyone just fine in the ownership family? I hesitate to guess on this one.
From Mike Humphries: The title of your 2017 column reminds me of a quote from Gerald Weinberg that I've had as my pinned tweet for nearly three years: “Things are the way they are because they got that way.”
“Nothing Ever Changes Because Nothing Ever Changes.”
Yeah, it is a depressing truth. Like I said, I am a sports optimist, but the Jerry Jones way of doing things has never inspired hope. I have always based my hope – because I do believe the Cowboys will win big again and soon – on the ability of a team to circumnavigate their owner. I saw it in the movie Major League once! Haha.
From Brian: I used to think that Stephen would be an improvement, but now I think he's just Kendall Roy, and we can only hope that circumstances conspire to keep him from ascending to the throne.
I thought HBO’s Succession was amazing and it probably is because every time I watched an episode, I thought about the Jones family. It is incredible how close it seems in nearly every way. Of course, I have also heard people compare it to several other families of a billionaire, so maybe it is more common than I know.
Maybe there is always jockeying for position to make sure you have dad’s blessing when the time comes.
It seems pretty stressful, overall. But you are supplied with many fashionable vests and a helicopter. So, positives and negatives abound. And maybe the show helps us understand the dynamics better. Of course, maybe it is just a show and families are complicated. Who can say?
Wess A few random takes... I join you in criticizing them for waiting too long on some deals (Dak, DLaw) but I don't think it's fair to then turn around and criticize for moving too quickly on others (Jaylon)
Stephen didn't "stop Jerry from drafting Manziel". It's well documented that this was a made up story by an author trying to sell a book. Jerry asked if anyone wanted to talk about him any more, the war room said no, and they stuck to their board.
The handling of Elliot and Prescott's deals have worried me for a long time. Anyone remember the "Zeke who?" shirt (or was it a hat?) that Jerry showed up in when Pollard looked good in training camp? I think it was only a few days later that they absolutely caved and gave him a ridiculous contract with a combination of dollars, term, and other concessions that were far above any other RB. Then they wait & wait on Dak's deal, and don't even seem to bother negotiating. They apparently concede to anything he wants - top-dollar, short term, NMC, no Tag, and other concessions. How do you tell a guy to 'prove it' 2 years in a row, and then change your mind and decide to completely turtle?
Yes, you can have different timing for different players and it is ok. This is not a recipe and you don’t follow it the same for every player. If you wait too long on a QB, the market may double in the time you waited and at those prices, you have hamstrung yourself with stupidity. Also, the Jaylon Smith contract was too early because it was a failed attempt to show guys how they reward those who are cooperative and at camp. The Smith deal was 100% a negotiation ploy with Zeke in Cabo. I promise because I saw it happen in real time.
The Manziel/Zack Martin disagreement really did happen. Did they actually wrestle for the card? Probably embellished, but if you don’t think Jerry really wanted to draft Johnny Manziel, you are incorrect. He did. And Stephen helped his dad follow the board and do the smart thing.
The answer to your third question is the saddest. It means they don’t really have a set philosophy on this stuff and it changes as the wind blows. There are countless examples of this that go all the way back to passing on Randy Moss in 1998. They simply run in circles and zig zag back and forth on their “core tenets” of what they believe in.
I hope that all makes sense.
From K Rice Bob, I think a lot of your research and opinions, but I am not entirely sold on this article. I have followed the Cowboys since the Ice Bowl. I was spoiled in my youth, so I definitely feel the frustration of the last thirty years. I also know this job is not easy. Everyone in this job makes mistakes. Was it you who wrote the piece about being in the game making the effort to win? The Dak negotiations were screwed up, but that is not to say there was not a valid perspective there. Jerry is a very loyal guy. That is normally a great trait, but it is not so great when you are the manager of a pro sports team. Stephen seems to be more practical. It may have been his influence to cut Dez Byrant and Zeke Elliott (sad but needed). I think Stephen has also been aboard with the drafting philosophy of generally taking the best available instead of reaching based on need (obviously, a philosophy they do not always follow). Stephen seems to do a better job of managing the salary cap. The salary cap is like draft picks--you cannot waste your resources. No one does a perfect job at this, but the Cowboys have put a team on the field that has won 12 games three seasons in a row. They have not advanced far in the playoffs, but there is a myriad of reasons for that, and the sample size is small. I am not on the bandwagon, but I am okay with waiting for more evidence.
That is completely fair and I hope Stephen is a massive uptick. He may be and I hope that is all true. I just have a hard time seeing the last eight years and hearing his words that go with each of those decisions and not getting a bit worried that the new boss is quite similar to the old boss.
From Lyndon Tilson: Um so here we are 3 weeks past the “why everything will be different column” (see going into GB game) and now this? You are better than this Bob. This is racing to the mainstream lowest common denominator. It sucks to lose and it sucks that Dak lived up to his reputation as a crash and burn big gamer.....and that the defense did its part. I’m no fan of the Jones way but they gave us a roster that was better than the outcome. Close your eyes and answer: if Dan Campbell is coaching this team where are they?
“You are better than this Bob. This is racing to the mainstream lowest common denominator.” If you are trying to hurt my feelings, I guess you did. I have never subscribed to that and won’t start now.
What I do hate is to see the usual suspects as the identifiable reasons in your response. You mention coach and QB. Look, I am not saying Dak Prescott or Mike McCarthy have the goods. I am saying that since I have arrived in 1998, we have had a dozen sacrificial lambs laid on the alter to avoid pointing at the big office up top. We love to blame the newest head coach or offensive coordinator or defensive coordinator or special teams coach or quarterback or running back or you name it. And you know why we love to point to them? Because they change a lot.
But, what doesn’t change? Well, I think you know. The owner still sits on his throne and makes the decisions that seem to allow this team to defeat a 98% statistical probability. And I realize it is energy draining to point at the immovable object as the issue, but I also think it is ridiculous to ignore it.
So, I guess in closing. I disagree with your premise, but understand how it feels better to assume or hope that the next coach and QB will break this cycle.
From David Schwartz: To be clear - I just hit 'liked this article' because it is well-written and thought out. I do NOT like the stated future of the Cowboys front office. That is very depressing. :(
I get it. But I promise, I cover this team because I do believe the sun will come out tomorrow and I refuse to miss it when it does!
Have a great weekend! I will be writing from Super Bowl 58 in Las Vegas when we visit again.
This fan base never ceases to amaze. A fairly critical essay means doom and gloom. This roster and staff are pretty darned good. Personnel department is pretty good as well.
Having a chance every year is a heck of a lot better than the alternative.
Too many people forget the QB situation between Aikman and Romo.
AIKMAN for GM! Hoorah!