The Pickens Move Sheds Plenty of Light
With one big trade, the Cowboys level up on offense. But, it does come with some risk.
It is no longer breaking news, but I definitely want to get into the biggest move of the Cowboys offseason from last week. When the Cowboys traded for George Pickens, they grabbed the football news cycle for 48 hours because it includes two things that every national football show can agree is great for the content it provides:
Debating the Dak Prescott-Cowboys offense and whether they can ever sort out their problems.
Talking about receivers who have a little bit of an emotional issue.
I mean, they both are manna from heaven in May, but to hit both of those on the same transaction is just too good to be true.
Last week, our big Cowboys essay was about the Cowboys offensive plan and how all the biggest questions remain the same. I think it is plenty amusing that the ink had hardly dried on that essay before they addressed it. I will assume they enjoy their subscription to our newsletter and am happy to help them sort out their issues whenever they need me.
That seemed to open the door to further investigate the lingering issues about the Cowboys’ wide receiver room – and the need to find a legitimate weapon across from CeeDee Lamb. Jonathan Mingo and Jalen Tolbert just don’t inspire confidence, and I am happy to report that they knew this and actually wanted to fix things now that Mike McCarthy is no longer around and they don’t have to play their fiddle while Rome burns any longer. What a bizarre time that was.
Sometimes, a new approach to scheme is the answer to our questions, but most of the time, we need playmakers to make plays – with or without wrinkles. This is the world that the Cowboys live in. They simply needed more threats on the field.
We honestly only spent a lot of time on this the morning after the Cowboys missed on their main target in the 2025 Draft, Tet McMillan. There is no question he was their guy in this draft, but once he was selected by Carolina at pick No. 8, we found out that the Matthew Golden desire was lower than I imagined. They switched to Tyler Booker or Walter Nolen, and at that point, they would “figure out the WR situation later” and circle back with those two mysterious trade ideas that the Cowboys had on their whiteboard before the draft.
I was asked in that piece on April 28th and here was my response about where the receiver trade market might take them:
I think the targets should be found in the 2022 draft class because those guys have one year left on their deals and should be pretty cheap unless their teams intend to keep them.
Eliminate the top four wide receivers from that group—Drake London, Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, and Jameson Williams. I think once you get to the next group, you’ll find players who have disappointed, like Treylon Burks (Arkansas, Jerry!), and guys who make their organizations uncomfortable, like George Pickens. Pickens would probably be expensive because his tape still shows a game-breaker, but I would be tempted. Another very fine receiver is Romeo Doubs in Green Bay, but he has also been a bit of a weird cat at times, and maybe Green Bay would flip him now that they have drafted Matthew Golden.
I think that’s where we should probably be looking, because the free agents available right now are not terribly special. Amari Cooper is interesting for sure, but I’m not very impressed with his 2024 stretch run in Buffalo. Still, I imagine Dak likes him.
Well, we now know that one was definitely George Pickens. It was not terribly difficult to see that our thought process was the same as theirs.
The key sentence here: “Pickens would probably be expensive because his tape still shows a game-breaker, but I would be tempted.” That was keeping me from getting too excited because I figured Pickens would cost a second-round pick and I wasn’t willing to do that.
But, he didn’t.
Dallas acquired WR George Pickens and a 2027 6th-round pick from the Pittsburgh Steelers in exchange for a 2026 3rd-round pick and a 2027 5th-round pick.
Basically you get Pickens for a third-round pick and a pick swap of Day 3 selections? Sign me up.
I know people have many concerns, so let’s address them before we look at his tape.
– Isn’t a 3rd round pick quite a bit for a one-year player?
Yes, it is. Especially if you paid a 4th for Jonathan Mingo and now it appears he might not have much of a Cowboys career ahead of him (although we have no idea). So, then you are met with the Roy Williams situation, where you probably are unwise to lock him up financially without ever playing a minute with you (the Cowboys immediately signed Roy Williams to a “new contract through the 2014 season; he agreed to a six-year, $54 million contract, with $26 million guaranteed” back when that was a ton of money). They also spent a 1st, a 3rd, and a 6th in the trade, which must be considered an unmitigated disaster on all fronts. Williams never had a single moment in Dallas when he appeared to be worth the contract, the trade, or the hype. It was brutal.
So, if you lock him up, you might make things worse. If you make him play for his contract, you might have to use a franchise tag to keep him beyond one year. We think the 2026 tag at wide receiver is about $28 million, and of course, that is probably also about the AAV of an extension. So, 4 years at $112 million is likely the going rate or so – which is roughly the Tee Higgins deal.