An "only-20-days-to-the-draft" Cowboys Draft Simulation and Mailbag!
Time is running out and prospects are everywhere in our chase to the finish line!
Good Morning!
Today, I want to make sure I pause from rolling through more draft prospects tape and profile to offer a few quick items for your perusal.
Also, in our first spring experience in #SturmStack, I am happy to see how many different topics we can juggle, but also that there is still just one me.
For instance, in the past week (or eight days) we have been able to write:
An essay on Opening Day and how Adolis Garcia brought me all the way back.
Three Thoughts on that actual Rangers’ Game No. 1 vs the Cubs.
A comprehensive update on how the Dallas Stars are in a perfect spot.
Nine more draft profiles – Numbers 37-45 – on our path to the full Sturm 60.
Thirteen pieces of content and this one will make it 14. But I do admit that none of those are big write-ups on the Dallas Cowboys — even though the draft is certainly adjacent to that topic that has put many of you on this subscriber list in the first place.
I assume few of you need a full explanation of my thought process here in the springtime, but the Cowboys are being given a slight break.
In our Rangers Opening Day piece, I recalled how one of my frequent requests of the organization was to “make us care” about their day-to-day operation by doing something attention-capturing and interesting and eventually the Rangers did.
They contended and then won big in the post-season. The bar for the Cowboys is obviously much lower because covering them is what helped build this following, but I think in March and April if the other teams are all playing at incredibly interesting levels, and the Cowboys have been almost completely dormant all spring, we can conclude that our choices are correct.
Make us care, Cowboys. If they were to do anything close to that bar, we would surely drop everything and run to discuss it, but clearly, they have not come near that threshold. So, we will return to them soon, but today’s draft simulation and mailbag will have to do.
In about two weeks, we will hit the ultimate confluence of events as the Stars and Mavericks will be in the playoffs and the draft will be here.
I have no idea how I will get all of that fully covered for you, but it will happen. I have a tiny vacation to Augusta that will happen here in a few days for my maiden voyage to the Masters, but after that, if I have to write three stories a day for a week or two, by golly, I will do it.
All I ask from you is to occasionally tell your friends about this venture and what we are creating here in our first full year at #SturmStack.
And now, on to our story:
The idea on this Friday, April 5, is to do some draft simulations. I don’t do mock drafts because they are dumb.
They are!
I promise you that it is next to impossible to know what the Dallas Cowboys war-room is thinking, despite trying to figure it out from January until the draft hits us. Many of us will try, but quite often they either do something we weren’t considering or draft someone we have not studied much at all.
It is a fool’s errand to predict one team. Now, a mock draft is someone trying to predict EVERY TEAM and their thought process? C’mon on, man.
I cannot believe our industry has decided this is a good idea, but apparently everyone loves clicking on them, so when I did write for publications which had bosses who would tell the staff what to do, they would always tell us to do mock drafts. I would always tell them basically these last two paragraphs and we would agree to disagree. Perhaps that is why they decided I didn’t need to be writing for them anymore. Who can say?
So, I am not doing a mock draft for you. I might do something equally as silly, which is some draft simulations. I will use the PFF draft simulator and you can do it on your own, here.
Given that I am studying Top 100 players and given that the Cowboys do not have a fourth round pick, I will simulate the Top-3 rounds and serve as the Cowboys GM for this exercise. Let’s give it a spin.
I set it up and hit start and the simulator picked the first 23 picks before the chime hit and it told me the Cowboys are on the clock. Here we go. Don’t screw this up, Bob.
As you can see, most the corners are still on the board. Six offensive linemen are gone and that includes Graham Barton from Duke. The above list are the PFF best available and every single guy on this list can help this team right now. I don’t think I can screw this up because all nine of these guys look like guys who can step right into their spot on this roster and be excellent. That is a very good sign that No. 24 is going to have great depth for us.
I do think that I agree with the consensus, though, that I will probably not take the “Best Player Available” because I am too thin at offensive line and this is a great OL draft. I am addressing that need.
I just think my highest graded OL on this board is clearly Jackson Powers-Johnson from Oregon as I gave him a true 1st round grade. Amarius Mims and Tyler Guyton are both very attractive options, but for now, I put them a rung below as 1st-2nd round grades. Honestly, if JPJ is there at No. 24, I am pretty sure that is my best case scenario. I love it and I am doing it.
THE PICK AT NO. 24 - Dallas takes: Jackson Powers-Johnson, C, Oregon
He was my first profile this year:
Ok. That worked out well. Bad news, though. We don’t pick again for quite a while and everyone of these guys is about to get picked off the board.
Now, this is where things get a little tricky as I admit to you that I have not done 200 players with enough depth to have studied everyone on this list to the extent that I would like. I just want to disclose the realities of time and space to let you know that this is why my fragmented coverage has limitations.
That said, I usually have studied all three of the Cowboys first picks, so I am hoping for the best.
Here we are at Pick No. 56.
Now, some more disclosure here. These are the best remaining players available at No. 56, but I only sorted for OL and defense. I realize I need a RB, but I don’t think I want to take one until Round 3. I also realize the Cowboys might consider WR as early as Round 2, but I feel I am against that, too.
So, the above board is what is left at OL, DL, Edge, LB, and CB. It is probably flawed to ignore others, but I am trying to address what I need to address and doing it when I need it to be done.
There are two tackles left here – Kiran Amegadjie and Blake Fisher and this is where I probably concede I need to profile both of these guys and be more prepared for some of these players I did not intend on studying. Yikes.
But, my best player available is Edgerrin Cooper from Texas A&M who I gave a 1st-2nd round grade. Beyond that, Junior Colson is a 2nd, and Ruke Orhorhoro and Kris Jenkins are both 2nd-3rd round grades.
I don’t hate any of these picks, but I am going to follow my board.
We are taking Edge.
THE PICK AT NO. 56 - Dallas takes: Edgerrin Cooper, LB, Texas A&M
Here is my profile:
This is where I want to emphasize that I believe the Cowboys need to be looking for trade back partners in Rounds 1-2, because I believe they need more picks in Rounds 3-4. At least one more and I wouldn’t be mad about two.
That might cost us one or both of these players to downgrade and to pick up a few selections, but it just seems to be the path.
Because if you do a few of these simulations, you see how this falls. There are just not enough options for us to get to No. 87 and to like what we have available – knowing there are no more bites of the apple again until No. 173. Seriously, they have to go 86 picks between players if they don’t trade back. This is bad.
Now, before I show you what we have at No. 87, here is what the simulator did to us right before we get to pick. As they say, pencils will be thrown in the war-room.
There are at least six guys on that list above that I would have celebrated, including my top two RBs, Jaylen Wright and Trey Benson. Blake Fisher, Austin Booker, and Blake Corum, too!
Ouch.
Rough group here. I think our wishlist got picked over completely. Now, there is one option on here that isn’t on the first page. But, let’s go down the three picks that I am considering.
Dominick Puni, Tackle, Kansas
Michael Pratt, QB, Tulane
Ray Davis, RB, Kentucky
Audric Estime, RB, Notre Dame
This is the portion of the simulation where I concede to you that I need to get these guys sorted out in the next 20 days. I am clearly not prepared to tell you enough about this pick and that is on me. I need to keep digging.
For now, Estime is a third-round grade and I don’t want to wait 86 picks to go again. I love the player, but how the heck can I play this season without a better option at tackle?
This is probably why you cannot draft for need all the time. Sometimes, the board doesn’t fall right for us.
THE PICK AT NO. 87 - Dallas takes: Audric Estime, RB, Notre Dame
Here is my profile on him.
I don’t hate the pick, but all I can think about is my depth chart and I don’t like it right now and I also don’t think much late Round 5 and on is going to help us fix that.
Here is the final damage.
Well, they say I reached, but I do think he is a 3rd rounder and we are taking him at the end of the 3rd round, so perhaps PFF and I will agree to disagree. I think he can be excellent. They clearly don’t.
Let’s check back in five years to see how this goes.
I feel like I need to stop down here and let you know that a few spins in the simulator has me a bit anxious about the prep here for the draft. I have time for 14 more profiles and I now feel like my method at my new home needs to be adjusted.
For years, I try to do the top of the draft, but I just think I should use my last 14 darts to try to find 2nd and 3rd round Cowboys possibilities and not worry about profiling the top 10 picks of this draft. I was looking forward to digging into all the QBs, but to better serve us all – readers, radio listeners, and my brain – maybe I should leave any interest in studying the QBs until this summer and focus on making sure I get more of these names that Dallas might want at No. 56 and No. 87 crossed off my list.
Essentially, I am asking you to help me decide between the left column or the right column. There are almost no scenarios where any of those names on the right will be Cowboys this season. But, it is reasonable to assume there are Cowboys on the left.
So, I should do the left side, right? I have to decide today because I am running out of days. If you can comment below when you read this and help me decide, I would be thankful.
Now, on to our mailbag. Let’s get through a bunch of these:
From lilwrangler: Will you throw things at the television if they draft a RB in the first 3 rounds?
No.
I think Round 3 is a good spot for a RB. Of course, I also think that is why a trade down makes me feel like this is the good play.
If you start at No. 24 and drop to No. 28 or No. 32, you might get a similar player there, but you also get a bonus pick which you can grab a nice RB. I am not one who thinks all RBs are the same, so I would have no issue with Trey Benson or Jaylen Wright in Round 3. Maybe even Blake Corum or Audric Estime. No issues at all.
From David Wolf: Do you have an official pet cat(s) at this point?
Always! I would say that there are a few guys I really like and maybe value them more than I should. Clearly, based on my evaluations of T’Vondre Sweat, he is probably the main one. I don’t know if the Longhorns who are always so sensitive about everything here I love several of their players, maybe they can accept my daughter went to A&M.
My guys this draft so far?
Sweat, JC Latham, Darius Robinson, Tyler Nubin, and Johnny Newton.
From Stephen Smith-Cobbs: Who would have to be gone and what group of players would still need to be on the board for you to feel okay with trading back from 24 to either 28 or 30 or 32? And what extra draft pick would you expect in return? Thanks!
Honestly, unless a premium tackle is there, I am thinking they should try to bounce for sure. If you can go back between 3 and 8 picks, you can expect a Day 2 pick and that is what this team needs right now. They need at least one more and maybe two more picks before No. 187, so this is my preferred route.
As much as I like Jackson Powers-Jackson to be the new center, I might grab Zach Frazier and another potential starter, instead. I think we need to consider quantity as a real opportunity this year over falling in love with one guy.
From Spencer Johnson: Most publications are predicting Dallas will go heavy on offensive line early in the draft (two of the first three picks), while you have expressed McCarthy’s willingness to go bargain bin shopping. Who wins out between these two philosophies come draft night, taking into account both have produced positive results with their implementation? It seems not re-signing Tyron has really taken away the Cowboy’s flexibility with what they do in round one.
Great question.
I want to be clear about McCarthy’s Day 3 OL beliefs – it is full pragmatism. He would never want a lesser player over a better one. He had that philosophy because he had no other choice. And I think he also has no other choice now. It would be unlikely that he wields a ton of power in the organization when everyone knows his contract expires this season unless he does something extraordinary.
What that should tell us is that the rest of the front office is planning on life after Mike as the most likely 2025, so when we ask what wins out on draft night, the answer is easy: Always the Jones Family. They do not have contracts that expire, nor do they have benchmarks to hit or else.
So, I agree with you. This will be OL in Round 1 and maybe Round 2.
From Paul Thames: Is there a league wide “GM club” mentality when it comes to negotiating trades up or down, even pre draft, that would hinder Dallas’s opportunities on draft day? Or does Will McClay, JJ and SJ function as a committee in that regard? (Obviously JJ seemed to make the 2024 4th rounder for San Fran’s Trey Lance in-season trade on his own.)
I don’t think so. One of the most interesting things about draft trades is that it seems all rules are off. In fact, there have been numerous trades between the Cowboys and the hated Philadelphia Eagles on draft days.
Sean Lee is a Cowboy because of the Eagles:
And Micah Parsons is a Cowboy because of the Eagles:
Usually, these rivals would never talk. But, on draft day, there is a peace treaty so everyone can try to accomplish their own missions.
As for the Trey Lance deal, yes, that revealed that maybe Jerry should check with his staff to let him know it was a very bad idea.
From Nelson: Is there a massive drop off between the Round 1 developmental tackles like Mims and Guyton versus the Round 2 guys like Patrick Paul and Suamataia? Seems all of them have incredible physical gifts but everyone agrees they’ll take some time to develop.
I am going to check my grades and perhaps re-evaluate a few players. Mims is on that list because I think I might bump him up if I do another game.
But, is he a developmental player or just one who is a bit inexperienced? I know that sounds redundant, but I think with him we are having a hard time feeling great about a guy who has never played more than 385 snaps in a season.
I do think there is a gulf there, but the draft shows us every year that sometimes, we just don’t know who will quickly take a step forward and who will level out quickly.
Ok, we have surpassed 3,000 words, so I better get back to the draft tape. Have a good weekend!
Left side Bob. However, it says SturmStack on the header, not MarkStack so you do you and we'll read it. ;-)
Thanks for "all" you write, not just the Cowboys content. That being said, I'd go left side, the bargain bin, that is where this team will shop. As infuriating as the owner is to me, I can't seem to stop caring entirely.