Friday Mailbag, September 8th edition

Ask me 20 questions about anything you want!

It is a “Free-for-all Friday Mailbag”, which I believe we will be doing from now on. Since we met for our last mailbag one week ago, we have turned out four pieces for your perusal:

On Saturday, I debuted the Three Thoughts Game Reviews for Colorado’s ridiculous upset of TCU in Fort Worth.

On Monday, we went hard on a Brandin Cooks film study to show you how the Cowboys can use him and review his showdown with Stephon Gilmore in Super Bowl 53.

Tuesday, it was time to tell the story of Terence Steele’s path and analyze the 5-year contract extension that will make him a high-earner for several years to come.

And then Thursday, I was interested in writing about this weekend’s college football showdowns for Texas at Alabama and Texas A&M at Miami and how the two QBs can determine the paths for their two coaches.

I hope you get a chance to check any of them out as a paid subscriber and join the community here at #SturmStack that is young and growing. It is beyond enjoyable to write for you folks directly here, rather than go write at another publication that will have bosses and advertisements and assignments I might not prefer.

It is great to do things our way here.

If you are not a paid subscriber, enjoy the Friday mailbag. The questions asked are from paid subscribers-only as a perk to them for their support, but I want to offer a free piece every week to convince you that I want to earn your business, too.

The grind begins in earnest on Sunday Night in New York City for the Cowboys and Giants and then this place will turn into a place for you to receive independent coverage of the Dallas Cowboys that I don’t believe you will get anywhere else. But, until then, let’s anticipate cool weather heading our way and enjoy our weekend and I will watch a few more US Open Tennis matches before the NFL takes over everything.

Let’s get this thing going.

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• From Patrick W.: Hi Bob, so glad you have found a new (and better) home! Here’s my question: What on Earth has happened to the Rangers? Did one too many blown saves just destroy their confidence/mentality/joy for the game? Did the career years some guys were having in the first half just became unsustainable? Is the pressure of a divisional race just too much for too many to handle? And beyond that, what do you think happens moving forward?

These are all great questions and I suppose there will be massive studies to try to fully grasp “what happened” when it is determined that the “collapsing” has moved to “fully collapsed and died.”

My first thought is that, yes, the bullpen killed them, but we should not underestimate how many players were seemingly having concurrent career years. At one point, there was talk about the 1927 Yankees offense and we probably should have known that Jonah Heim, Zeke Duran, and Leody Taveras were not Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig.

There are many elements that go into any successful or unsuccessful season, so to pinpoint one is difficult. I will say this, it is hard to believe most explanations when you simply remember that they were 72-48. I’m sorry, 72-48 is too good to act like anyone should have saw this coming.

In the end, Houston is a better team with better players and I have said that all along. I expected Houston to hunt them down, but this total collapse with such meek submission and such a complete lack of morale when things were falling apart has been very disappointing. I don’t know what I was expecting, but I sure thought they would arch their back and insist that they weren’t going quietly into the night. Instead, they have gone very quietly into the night. It has been a real bummer.

• From Austin W: Hey Bob! Can you power rank all DFW teams by who will win a championship next?

Always an interesting question and one that I get asked frequently. I am guessing if you asked me a month a go, I would have said the Rangers. Now, it seems ridiculous. Three months ago I would have said the Stars. Now, I think the Cowboys and it is possible with having Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving together for a few years means the Mavericks are actually the closest.

The great news is that all four of the big teams in this city are presently “in the mix” and that is usually as much as you can ask. But, to offer you a straight answer, here you go for September 8, 2023:

Cowboys/Stars are tied for 1st. Rangers in 3rd and Mavericks are in 4th. FC Dallas is in 5th and that is as deep as I am willing to dig. I guess this should tell us that it is a pretty good sports time around here.

• From Josh Peterson: I’ve heard a lot of “this is one of the best rosters since the 90s” this offseason. Is this a top three roster since their last Super Bowl? Top overall? How does it compare to other Cowboys rosters you’ve covered?

I think we always over-rate rosters before Week 1 because we forget how everything can change with one significant injury. But, if I may speak more of just 2023, I am telling you, this Cowboys roster is really, really good.

Usually, the best test of this theory is two-fold:

1) Do you see any starters that you really wish weren’t starters? I would say that I think 22 for 22, I think they have proper and solid NFL starters at every spot.

2) Do you need any of your rookie draft picks to come in and fix current problems or did you just draft guys to provide depth and grow into their roles?

I would say that they are in great shape in both cases. I think this is a very strong roster, but the DeMarvion Overshown ACL injury does weaken them some. The Cowboys will need to avoid any other significant season enders, I should think. But, if they can get some injury luck, this team can go a long ways.

• From Michael: If the Packers, 49ers, or Eagles had the Cowboys’ roster, they’d pretty clearly be favorites to win the NFC, yes? Is the fact they’re not a function of the way they’re covered (negativity=clicks/eyeballs/ears), or is it something else, namely the nearly 3 decades of wandering the desert?

Yes, Michael.

You just answered it.

The Cowboys are covered differently and there are many reasons for that. But, the entire ethos of this organization is based on the 30-year drought and how hopeless it feels and how it will never change. The Cowboys drought is as important to these conversations as the Cowboys themselves. So, no, people do not treat this team similarly because they are the Dallas Cowboys and the conversations about them cannot exist without the entirety of the story being included and considered. It is a chicken and egg, but it is also the fuel that the entire thing operates. This is why I think Cowboys fans should choose their media carefully and avoid the national media altogether. It is just too disingenuous to even take seriously.

• From Eric Smith: Let’s keep Prem talk going! Given the start to the year and Man City’s insane 12 points - can anyone catch them, or is it over 4 matches in?

Manchester City is rightfully the favorite and probably the overwhelming favorite. But, going 12 of 12 points through four matches when you play Fulham and Newcastle at home and travel to Burnley and Sheffield United, it’s not going to get the big boys to concede.

Arsenal and Liverpool with both believe they can tangle with them because Arsenal had them beaten last year until they ran out of gas and Liverpool has beaten them once (2020) and pushed them to the final day two other times (2019 and 2022) in the last five years. So, no. The Premiership requires 38 matches to prove a champion is worthy and City has barely gone 10% of the journey. We are just getting started.

• From Nick Manske: Once you hang up your headphones at the Ticket, will you continue writing, or will it be a complete (much deserved) break from all work as you hit the links in SoCal? And you’ve given me a hard no when I’ve previously asked, but do you think you’ll ever write another book?

I think it is very possible that writing will always be something I do. I absolutely love this as it currently exists where I am working for you guys. I cannot imagine what the technology world will look like in 2032 when I retire from radio (roughly).

But, if it is anything like this and if I live on a beach, it will include two things for sure: a laptop and lots of sports in my life. I know no other way, so I could see a world where I keep doing this for many years so I don’t drive my wife too nutty.

• From Rob Crowther: Hey Bob. What are your expectations for Liverpool this season? I'm a huge Tottenham fan, so have to ask - what are your thoughts on them and Ange? They have had a great start after losing Kane.

I think Liverpool can contend for the entire Premier League. They will need some help from City and they will need health, but they have the pieces on the roster and look fantastic so far. As for Tottenham, I love Son and Maddison and there are many pieces to like. But, I do have concerns at striker and wonder if they have enough there. But, Ange Postecoglou has my attention and so does the Spurs start. They are always a side I try to lock in on and see when I can.

• From Will: If you had to go one month without engaging in sports of any kind (watching or playing), how would you spend that time? You can do thing like work out, but you can't like play golf.

Dang, Will. I guess I would try to read books again. I would watch plenty of war movies and Band of Brothers again. I would work on my Spanish and really get after it with some regularity. I would maybe even pick up my guitar for the first time in a few years. But, I will be honest, I can hardly go an hour without engaging in sports, so a month sounds like a horrible punishment and I would be sad.

• From Chris Rickard: Is Luka his own worst enemy? He was ejected from Slovenia’s final World Cup game after complaining to the refs the entire game. Of course he had a point on some bad calls but not every whistle will go your way.

Yes.

I plan on a long Luka piece before opening night. I think this is a very important year for him and also a chance for him to push himself to an all-new level that we haven’t seen yet.

But, there is no question that he is sabotaging himself and his team with his emotional immaturity and his refusal to fix it. He occasionally says the right things in moments of self reflection, but the general vibe does not change.

What is worse is that he has a legion of people that will defend him to act however he wants. They seem like soccer moms who will defend their boy no matter what. But, that is how he got to this spot. Being surrounded by blind loyalists who refuse to coach him hard.

His routine against Canada was amazingly predictable. An opponent was going to try to make him lose his composure, because they knew he would. And, he did not disappoint them. He loses his cool, then his focus, then his mind. It has been repeated 50 or 100 times and it is sabotaging his career when it comes to meaningful steps like winning. And yet, nobody calls him on it and coaches him hard. This is not good. He is too good to allow himself to be this immature.

• From Geraud: Hi Bob! I haven't heard much about Tony Pollard's recovery from his gnarly injury last year. Given it happened in the playoffs, it seems like a short recovery time no? Any concerns about him staying healthy this year or has he 100% recovered?

Absolutely! I have many concerns and I have not seen him definitively prove he is back and fully 100%. We need to see it because he is a very important cog to this thing. Now, I have also not heard concerns or bad signs, but I just haven’t seen him do his thing yet. I am anxious to see that early on Sunday night.

• From Brent: Curious about your thoughts on Luepke over Jabril Cox (with current LB situation). Taking a closer look, could LB be shallow enough as currently constituted to undermine the effectiveness of an otherwise elite D?

I think the decision should tell us that the Cowboys think there are Jabril Cox-types on the streets and that he can be replaced easily. Luepke is a fullback/tight end who they really like and I am not sure the attraction level is appropriate, but they did not think he is in great supply. Usually those decisions go like that in conversations in the personnel department: Which of these guys can we easily find on the waiver wire? We must keep the other guy. Apparently Luepke had a little something that impressed them more.

• From mike mcg: Bob!!! How bout some packers coverage now that you have broken the chain!!!

Haha. Well, let’s see what happens down the road. There is an essay about Jordan Love and Aaron Rodgers possibly being created between my ears. Maybe the story about my meeting with Don Majkowski from 1991, which is pictured below although I will warn you now, the picture is probably better than any story that goes with it:

I don’t want to make any promises but never say never at #SturmStack

• From Dave W: How many (if any) wins do you think switching from AFC South / NFC North in 2022 to AFC East / NFC West in 2023 will cost? AFC East seems much tougher than AFC South. NFC West is a mixed bag so maybe not a lot tougher than last year’s NFC North?

These are the types of questions that I actually study hard.

Of course, I also wonder if it causes me to over-think these matters. Last year, Dallas had to go to Green Bay and Minnesota which both seemed daunting, but they went 1-1. This year, they go to San Francisco and Arizona which seems easier, but probably still 1-1. Last year in the AFC on the road, it was at Jacksonville and at Tennessee which seemed stiff, too. They ended up at 1-1 in those two road games. This year it is at Buffalo and at Miami. I would sign up for 1-1 right now.

So, playing on the road is a tricky test for sure under all circumstances in football and especially in the NFL, but the real goal should always be to break even. Since NFC teams all play nine road games this year and only eight at home, it will be especially key for Dallas to have success as road warriors. By the way, the bonus road game this year is at the Chargers on Monday Night Football (a place where they visited in 2021 in Micah Parsons coming out party).

Last year, the bonus 17th game was home against Cincinnati, which Dallas won. All in all, good teams have good records and can handle a tough schedule. That said, I love the Jets this season because their schedule seems way easier than the Bills. Both teams play nine home games, by the way, and the Jets get a 10th home game in spirit, since they play “At the Giants” in a game where I assume they can still use their home locker-room.

• From Chris H: Hey Bob, you’ve written about Messi in this space already, but I’m curious about your thoughts on what his monumental decision to join MLS means to the league. Do you think other teams will attempt to model his deal (TV helps to pay for a generational talent the team couldn’t otherwise afford to bring in)? Is this a one time thing, or the start of something more?

Chris, it is a very good question. I assume the TV deal was a one-time deal where they gave the farm away, but they also believe it would be worth it. I think MLS has done a wonderful job of growing its product in the last 20 years.

I also think there is reason to believe that even without Messi and other big names that get attention, the league has been sending talent to Europe at a very impressive rate that people may not be fully aware of. There is a great story by Matt Doyle here that you should read if you are interested in the nuts and bolt of the growth of MLS on the world transfer market stage. They are safely in the Top 10 of almost all of those metrics which is amazing.

• From WW: Other than Dak, what player injury is the biggest risk to the Cowboy’s season? Also if you were a lineman would you nickname now be Bob “stacks” Sturm - I’ll see myself out...

Micah Parsons and CeeDee Lamb. If we say those special players are why Dallas could win a Super Bowl this year, then we have to concede that losing those special players would be a massive detriment. I suppose that sounds extremely obvious, but that is the best answer I have. The object of going through a NFL season comes down to can you have your special players playing special football all season or not?

• From Stan Steiber: Hi Bob, do you think Biadasz has done enough to get a second contract from the Cowboys or is there a secret plan to have Bass be our center next year?

I would be willing to sign Tyler Biadasz at a reasonable deal. I think he is a average to above-average starter, but not an elite center. Therefore, if he would be willing to sign an extension in line with his class of player, Mason Cole of Pittsburgh is at about 3 years, $16 million, Ethan Pocic of Cleveland 3 years, $18 million, Bradley Bozeman of Carolina 3 years, $18 million (who I like better than Biadasz) and Brian Allen of Los Angeles Rams is 3 year, $18 million. That is pretty clearly a price that is the going rate for his tier and I would probably do that. As far as top of market centers like Frank Ragnow of Detroit hitting at four years, $54 million and Ryan Kelly of the Colts four years, $50 million, I would not do that. Its about finding the right number that both parties can settle at.

• From Chuck Mallott Hey Bob! I love this new Substack world! I think Dak's "questionable status" from national media comes from 3 things: 1) bizarre time clock management handling to end of the 49ers game in Jan 2022; 2) leading the league in interceptions in 2022 season; and 3) playing one of his worst games in against the 49ers this past January. I can talk myself out of blaming Dak for about 5-6 of those interceptions last year, which puts him at around 9-10 (league avg) ... can you remember a time when a player's whole reputation was based on such little "evidence"? Aside from the "welcome to playing QB for the Cowboys" reasoning, it seems completely irrational. Is there more to it than that do you think?

I have good news for you. Its not really about any of that. It is a content machine and Dak Prescott has basically taken over providing content for large parts of the nation’s sports media from Tony Romo.

Romo has somehow improved in the last several years because now people are actually not spending so much time asking the questions of him about “will he ever lead the Cowboys to the promised land” and therefore people can simply evaluate his abilities.

Nothing about these Romo and Prescott conversations are actually about the players.

They are about the franchise’s place in this universe. Like Lakers and Yankees conversations, most are disingenuous generational chats about these hated franchises and Dak is the present place-holder. I have news, if Prescott was traded for Matthew Stafford or Kyler Murray, Twitter would explode, but in about eight weeks, the same conversations would begin all over again. I am convinced of it.

By the way, Dak isn’t perfect and he has flaws. I wrote this piece to cover this exact topic a month ago. Check this out because as I said, the Dak Prescott Narrative Machine never stops. And as far as Dak throwing too many interceptions, I cover that in the piece, too, but just look at this chart:

He is almost always below the league average line. And of course, league-average is nowhere near league-worst.

Surface level analysis is what most of these national folks do and it serves to pretty much just make fans dumber. That is why some of us are determined to try to cancel that out with analysis that can pass some scrutiny of review.

• From Walter Sharpless: Bob, how did you go about learning football? I mean to the depth of understanding you share? Thanks

I should tell this story in-depth soon.

But, basically, about 20 years ago, I became frustrated with feeling that nobody in the media seemed to understand this sport that we all love. I mean that in a non-offensive way, but all the cliches and truisms that people would throw around did not seem to always be true.

It did not seem that our media world was working hard to become experts on what we cover, so I made it my goal to learn as much about the technical aspects of this sport as I possibly could. So, I started reading coaching books, watching videos, attending clinics and trying as hard as I could to go to “football coach college,”, if there is such a thing. Trying to figure out the sport at a level that had zero narratives – just the schemes and tactics that are taught in the game.

Now, I want to concede something here that is very important: I may have grown my football brain a bit, but I still have tons to learn. You can learn from this game every day and there are much smarter people who are professors at football coach college all over the place – especially in Texas. So, this education I enjoy never stops. Football is a game for everyone to enjoy, because it can be consumed on many levels. But, the deeper you go, the more you realize you don’t fully understand and know. And the game keeps evolving so even the best coaches in the world have to keep learning! Luckily for all of us outside the game, there are more learning materials available to all interested than ever before.

• From Tom McLeod: Bob, I've always wondered about how analytics are used in professional sports, especially in the context of the Dallas Cowboys. We've seen examples of data-driven decision-making in baseball with Moneyball, but how do you expect the Cowboys' investments in analytics talent to manifest itself this year? Is it primarily about 4th down decisions and when to go for two, or is it more deeply integrated into every play call, both offensively and defensively, as well as roster decisions? Could you provide a broader picture of how these data talents will influence what we see on the field, or is it something that happens behind the scenes, like the making of sausage?

Great question, Tom. I have yet to dive into the Cowboys pursuit down this path, but I do know in modern times, these franchises in every sport are trying to find that little difference maker and analytics (which is often just a fancy and scary (for some) term for studying statistics) serves as that solution for many.

My hope is that they have been studying carefully the analytics of contract strategies. I believe the Cowboys have made some horrible contract mistakes from 2018-2020 and we are starting to see things that indicate the timing of such deals is moving forward. I believe data would tell us that there is a sweet spot to getting extensions done where you can efficiently handle fitting them together and if you do them early, you can save millions and millions. If you wait out a player – as they did with Dak Prescott – and then decide you have to have him, well, you lose big.

We don’t know how much Dallas lost on his contract, but even things like giving provisions for no tags and no trades have put them into a category where it was absolutely clear they lost that negotiation very badly. No, you should not extend everyone early, but they seemed to lose badly on Dak, Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper, and Jaylon Smith in succession. Perhaps, that encouraged them to study the league and try to get a handle on the best way and the best times to do deals and when to walk away altogether.

• From Jim Lollar: Your prediction: Game when Deuce first shocks the world?

I have been asked this a few times this week. Many of us are certain there will be a few occasions this season where the football world will get a taste of Deuce Vaughn and he might even win a few games. Will Dallas start him very slowly? Or will he get 5-6 shots at shifting the game on Sunday? I know I have my hopes that they don’t waste any time at all.

Ok, there you have it. Look for some college football Three Things and I will see you for our very first edition of the Cowboys Morning After on Monday Morning.