A only-31-days-to-the-draft Cowboys Mailbag!
Checking in on the Cowboys and their modest draft haul as we are drawing closer.
Something had to give in the last 30 days. While I am proud of all the content we are producing here at #Sturmstack, I regret the rare interactions in the mailbag.
Mailbags are a way to have a direct connection with so many of you, but with 31 days to go, I still have 23 more players to evaluate to get to 60. In addition, I have to write up Stars, Rangers, and Mavericks as they are all at critical and high interest times of the year.
So, maybe in May, mailbags will be a regular part of our routine. But between now and then, I would rather make sure you get a ton of strong content in all four of our mandated directions (and the occasional fifth direction like on Easter when Arsenal and Manchester City meet or a sixth as the Masters are almost here!).
In other words, most mailbags will have to wait.
Unless, we tie it into something like a draft update. I just worked through all seven of the RBs I had on my list, so before I start on the cornerbacks, let’s update you on where we are.
First, an update on the #Sturm60 project. This here is the frequently updated master list with all completed profiles. Not all grades are final, but here is where they all reside:
It may say March 2, but they have been updated as recently as this morning with RB Braelon Allen.
Here is the current state of the Sturm 60 grades.
Here is a reminder of my grading system that is only to give people an idea of where I would want to place guys in the grand scheme (of course assuming I had time to evaluate every single player).
High First: A top-10 pick.
First Round : A top-25 pick.
First-Second Round: Roughly picks 25-45.
Second Round: Self-explanatory
Second-Third Round: Roughly picks 55- 75
Third Round: Self-explanatory
Fourth Round: Day 3 Picks
I realize it is all sort of weird, but it is my baby and I try to give it the love it deserves.
Any other issues, please check out this update from two weeks back and it should be able to lead you in the right directions.
Ok, now, on to your questions:
From Zach: Without Tyler or Tyron I feel the boys almost must go OL in the first. Who on the defensive side would be worth them going defense in the first? How likely is a trade back to get an extra player?
I would say to your first question that there is more than a few that would make me really think at No. 24 about taking defense. I think this defense could use some difference making in the middle of their defensive line and if he is a better player, then we better think about taking him.
I won’t make you a list just yet, because I haven’t stacked these guys, but if you look at this list, you will see that I have several OL on a first-round grade. Joe Alt and Talise Fuaga are high first so they are no brainers. Then the first-round OL grades I have given would go to Jackson Powers-Johnson, Troy Fautanu, JC Latham, and Olu Fashanu.
But, after that, I have a lot of defensive players listed above the next wave of OL like Jordan Morgan, Tyler Guyton, Graham Barton, and Amarius Mims. I like them all and they frequently get tied to Dallas, but if Dallas Turner, Jer’Zhan Newton, or the Longhorn DT’s are still there, I better think long and hard about going elsewhere.
Meanwhile, you also asked about trading back in Round 1 or Round 2. I think you owe it to yourself with this many needs to attempt to look for some dance partners to move back and pick up an additional second, third, or fourth rounder this year. You already burned your 4th in the silly Trey Lance move, so I think you got to get it back. I think that is something we should think about carefully.
From lilwrangler Regarding your recent article on the Tyron exit and assumed O-line rebuild, would it be more prudent to grab the most elite C at pick #24 as opposed to getting possibly only the 4th/5th best LT? My reasoning would be solidifying the line from the inside — > out being as no QB likes pressure in their face. Hoffman did admirably but if they nail down C, Bass can handle LG. I don’t like Tyler S moving to LT but I think it’s better in the now than what they would presumably get on draft day.
Yes! I cannot stress this enough. If you have a chance to lock in and get Jackson Powers-Johnson right now, I am signing for it. He is the best center you have, TJ Bass plays left guard and Tyler Smith at left tackle. I am in. I recommend people read up on JPJ and even look at the Bucky Irving profile to see this center just dominating. He is my guy.
Lots of film of JPJ in both of those.
From David Wolf: If the Cowboys don't go O-Line with their first pick, which player would you like them to choose in the late first round (assuming he's available)?
I think the two I am really fired up about are Johnny Newton from Illinois and Laiatu Latu from UCLA. Both would instantly give folks plenty of joy right off the bat. Newton fits better right now since they need some DT splash, but edge is not very deep anymore. Here are both of their profiles:
From Ramiro de la Garza: 1. Can we reasonably expect a 1st round OL to be ready to compete on day 1? With Pollard gone do they necessarily have to try and replicate the bruiser/finesse tandem rb system or can they get more nuanced and layered skill set wise at that position?
I would want any Round 1 lineman to be ready to plug and play. If he is a project, then I would not love that pick. I think we should consider that someone like Tyler Guyton could use a year before you put him on the field, so I have a little reluctance there, but since Tyler Smith worked out so quickly, I guess they have earned the benefit of the doubt.
As for the RB situation, I think they want two guys, but yes, I do think they would like some do-it-all types, rather than a clear “big, short yardage” and then a “smaller, shifty” guy. I think we all prefer a guy with well-rounded abilities that can be useful in all situations, be it 1st and 10 or 3rd and goal.
From Seth Y: Historically what positions have better talent come from the later rounds (3rd round on) as measured by pro bowls or all pro teams (I would think QB almost has to be a 1st rounder but beyond that what other positions do you usually have to target in the first 2 rounds to have a legitimate shot at an elite player vs the positions that have good success from the later rounds)?
I have not done the appropriate research on this, but it is a great question. Yes, 1st round is proven to be where quality is for Quarterbacks. For every Tony Romo, Tom Brady, or Dak Prescott, the hit rates are so tiny. If you want a QB, it will be up top.
What other positions? Left tackle is usually up top. Edge rushers and defensive tackles mostly.
What positions do not have evidence of evaluations being a prelude to a hall of fame career? Guards, centers, safeties, linebackers, running backs, and tight ends are the big ones.
Wide Receivers are actually tough to nail down. It seems like WR and CB are found everywhere and stars do seem to be included in that. You can find a lot of Day 3 quality amidst the masses at those two spots.
Again, it is a great question and the main thing is there are a half-dozen exceptions to every rule in the draft game. We are looking for the majority of cases to any of these truths.
From David Rivera: I understand McCarthy can do more with less at OL, but how long has the seasoning period averaged for that development? I assume he hasn’t done it in a lame-duck setting.
Great question. It takes time. I think in most of McCarthy’s cases, we have seen guys quietly develop behind the scenes before they are fully “ready” and that means not starting them on Day 1. So, if you want the “McCarthy way”, it is probably best seen if TJ Bass and/or Brock Hoffman and Asim Richards are ready to roll at some point soon and end up being better than we thought they would be.
From Jason Lustig: In drafting a RB, would you make it bigger priority to find a back who can create explosive plays vs. a back who may excel at getting the tough dirty yards? Also, is it preferable to have a back who hasn't had a ton of carries in college and hopefully has less wear and tear?
This is another good one. In a nutshell, yes, you would rather have less wear and tear, but that assumes that you want his full career and the more we devalue this position, the more it seems that every RB should be considered a four-year investment and therefore, I am not worried about college mileage in most cases.
Now, stylistically, which type of runner do I want? I know this sounds silly, but I want a guy who can do just about everything. He needs to be big enough to take the beating, fast enough to scare teams, willing and able to go inside and outside, he can catch the ball and run it, pass protect at times (although we have really made that a priority and it should be extremely low on the list in my view), and yes, take care of the ball while getting that last tough yard.
I take great umbrage with the idea that running backs don’t matter. They might not in free agency, but there are about 17-20 Sundays where they matter a lot. We must not confuse the two issues and I feel many fans do. It is ok not to allocate a huge part of your salary cap to this position, but on game-day, you sure better have a good one and respect the opponent’s RB, too.
I am not sure the Eagles were smart in giving Saquon Barkley a lot of money, but when you play them, you better understand he can break the game wide open if you do not keep him corralled. Don’t confuse the business of the sport with the game itself. He will be a problem when he is out there.
Let me show you my two highest-graded RB’s on my stack right now. I think they both would be a lot of fun to see in a Cowboys uniform. Both are 2nd-3rd rounders for me.
From Danny Black: What are the top 3 deepest/strongest position groups in this draft?
Well, we must say at the top that EVERY draft has dozens of NFL caliber wide receivers and defensive backs. This is because the college game produces those at a very high level and the planet has many more elite athletes who are 180-220 pounds than it does at 280-320. It is a mathematical issue that is just based on our society.
But, if we accept that there are always more talented littles than bigs, then let’s discuss the 2024 draft:
This is a great OL draft, in my opinion. I cannot remember this many tackles, guards, and centers in the Top 100 for some time. Many NFL starters. Also, I think there is a very impressive batch of running backs this year that I have enjoyed spending time on. I also think there are a lot of edges, but much like RB, not a lot of elite candidates that I can see.
It is a poor tight end draft and top shelf edge rushers, it seems. Linebacker is pretty thin, too.
From Sandy: If the Cowboys are serious of letting Dak hit free agency after this year would it not behoove this team to draft a QB this year? If Dak does bolt (who would blame him?) is there a dead money cap hit in ‘25? Thanks as always.
Absolutely. If you are considering letting your All-Pro QB walk, you should also seek counseling. But, in the event that you are dug in, then yes, you need to populate your roster with QB options because trust the entire football world when we tell you those guys aren’t growing on trees. The Trey Lance model makes sense except for the gigantic issue that he is not under contract at all. If you extend Lance this summer, it might be slightly less of a problem, but if you use one of your picks on QB, well, then that will be a very clear and obvious that they have decided to “Kirk Cousins” their way out of this.
Of course, keep in mind that Washington did not have a better plan and the last many years have shown that and now Minnesota also does not seem to have a better plan, so they are going to trade who-knows-what to move up to where they can get their guy. Then comes the most impossible part of hoping that guy can actually play since he is costing you at least two 1st round picks. It is not a desirable spot. And yes, Dak is going to cost $40m against the 2025 cap as it currently stands if they just let him expire this season.
From Don Holdridge: I’m not crazy about mock drafts, but what players do you think could be available to the Cowboys in the first three rounds? Who among these would you pick, and what’s your rationale for each one?
I am not a mock draft guy, but I will attempt to do some dress rehearsals when I get my 60 done. I promise. Let’s save your project until draft week. I will be all over it.
From Chris Capshae: Our 4th round pick in this year’s draft was used on Lance. What does a 4th round QB in this draft look like? A related question: what does Lance’s development look like right now?
I have very bad news on this front. There are only about six real strong QBs in this draft - Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels, Michael Penix, Bo Nix, and JJ McCarthy. All of them may go in the first round and if not, surely in the Top 50.
After that, Spencer Rattler (Oklahoma and South Carolina) and Michael Pratt (Tulane) are really the only two who fall between Rounds 2-5 from what I understand. I have not gone carefully down the list, personally, so I am taking other’s words on this one.
In other words, Trey Lance is actually very likely the best of the bunch, I bet. The issue is those guys would be under contract from 2024-2027 on almost no money. Lance is costing you $5.3 million in 2024 and then he is unrestricted as of next spring. So, again, if you can get him to sign a 2-year extension, it would change everything. But, are you willing to invest in a guy who has yet to take a snap?
Jarrett Stidham signed in Denver on a two-year, $10 million last year. Sam Darnold just did one-year, $10 million in Minnesota. Gardner Minshew signed in Las Vegas two-year, $25 million and Taylor Heinicke signed two-year, $14 million in Atlanta last year. So, somewhere in there might be a 2-year extension for Lance, but he has to agree to it and why would he if he thinks you are sticking with Dak Prescott?
In other words, they are really in a bit of a tangled mess at the position that means the most. Meanwhile, they appear to have a 30-year old All-Pro QB in their facility right now that everyone is sick and tired of looking at because of the post-season failures that he has had a hand in. And Jerry Jones continues to say things that make everyone shake their heads.
Ah, yes. The current state of Cowboys football is really something right now!
I better get back to work!
Late stage Al Davis, sans any trace of prior football acumen, has become unbearably tiresome.
Add nepotism to the equation.
Here we are.
You will need to do more potential Michigan draft picks since the Cowboys want to prove they can actually draft a Wolverine in top 2 rounds of draft that can actually be above replacement level. If first you dont succeed, try, try, try and try again.